
openai ipo leaks
~$13b revenue
~$34b spend
~-$39b losses
the paradox
- revenue exploding
- losses exploding faster
both true at once
what’s happening
- chatgpt share drops to ~46%
- claude + others gaining ground
- competition is real now
why markets don’t care (yet)
- ai is being priced like infrastructure
- not software margins
- growth > profitability
spacex effect
spacex ipo showed markets still reward:
- deep tech
- high burn
- strategic dominance narratives
even with losses
so the real question isn’t:
“is openai gonna profitable?”
it’s:
“does anyone else get to win this category?”

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