We are coming up on a year since Tesla launched in Austin and Tesla bros told us that Waymo was doomed because Tesla's technology was scalable in a way that Waymo's is not. Tesla no-safety-driver fleet is ~50 vehicles. Waymo's is ~3,000.

@binarybits I hear you and understand the issues, but as a daily fsd user I have to say it is wildly better than I would gather from reading the specialist press. I don't rule out that Tesla will crack it and then scale way beyond Waymo.

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@binarybits Is a year a long time for a ride hail service? What was Uber's growth, or Waymo's growth in their first year? Is Robotaxi ahead or behind those curves?

@binarybits Which of these Waymo’s can I buy and run myself? Answer: none. So long as Tesla is steadily adding new no safety monitor cars, they’re moving in the right direction. Better to get there safely and slow than have a bad rollout tank the whole endeavor.

@binarybits Yet Tesla has more area in multiple cities in months than Waymo has managed in six years. Tesla just needs a basic support and cleaning infrastructure in an area. It doesn't need to map every alley and parking lot in minute detail.

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@binarybits Waymo went unsupervised in 2020. Took them 6 years to get to 3000. How many did they release in the first 3 months in Arizona?

@binarybits How long did it take for Waymo to get from first public ride to unsupervised rides?