I struggle with what to say about the new AI 2040: Plan A website. It all seems so implausible to me that I'm not sure where to start. There's an epistemic chasm between those who think superintelligence implies near-omnipotence and those (like me) who don't.

@binarybits Relative to cats, we are super powerful. It seems plausible that there is some similar OOM of power between us and ASI.

@MichaelTontchev If you sent a human 10 million years into the past, he'd be far smarter than any animals around him but he'd struggle to survive, to say nothing of achieving power over the other animals.

@binarybits @MichaelTontchev How do you think humans after evolving get from there to here if not through the intelligence?

@centristviewer @MichaelTontchev Intelligence yes, but not only through intelligence. Also by increasing headcount, developing new technologies, building institutions and infrastructure, and so forth. This was a process that took thousands of years.

@binarybits @MichaelTontchev Do you think that maybe these things that you describe(headcount, tech development(which directly cause the first), infrastructure) are kind of related to the intelligence? And ASI won't start from scratch, currently there are hundreds of billions of dollars thrown into capex.