Andriy Che

@Merridew__ What is your read here?

Their max leverage is in the winter with attacks on civilian infra, mostly power stations and grid. Last winter was really bad for Ukraine. IMO its a calculus for Russia what they prefer more, another year of slow economy collapse but a chance to pressure Ukraine to a better deal, or just do a deal now. Militarily its a stalemate. Though, I am not sure Putin is a poster child of rational thinking, otherwise that would not happen in the first place

Maybe its just me falling for propaganda, but it surely seems like there is no clear winning condition anymore for Russia in the Ukraine. Maybe next months its finally time for a ceasefire (freezing current positions?). Ukraine is out-tech-ing Russia. $Shipping $Tankers $Bulk

@ALikhodedov Thanks, just right amount of details for me to understand

@jud_guy HR is much better than Kimmtrack, but I hear you, a lot of people, me included, expected blow off results IMO it will be very defensible indication for IDYA as its good results for metastatic disease. So the bulk of MC in IDYA is derisked, good starting point to build on it

@17thfellow That IDYA is a pill and has few side effects is a huge + and is> IPI NIVO. Whether PFS translates to OS is still TBD. Drug will be approved IMO, but it's results are modest, akin to KIMMTRACK, which has also meh results, but does several hundred $.

$idya I think the data will be adequate for approval but data isn't that impressive considering these were all first line patients.

@DeepSouthDoctor Agree, I am also trading/scaling in and out , with this market backdrop

@17thfellow I don't see a major catalyst until Q4, and it's hard for me to place a valuation on companies that are 18 months prior to commercialization (and longer to get a sense of sales ramp). Sold at $37+, would certainly consider buying back at similar price prior to next data.

$IDYA - sold for moderate profits. Hard to know how to value them, but thought data today was solid, will certainly have significant mOS data when mature. $MLYS - sold for moderate loss. Would be tempted to buy back prior to Dec PDUFA date if price is right.

@jeromeleonard5 @bioinvestor24 @JacobPlieth @avidresearch You guys are hilarious 🤭

@bioinvestor24 @JacobPlieth @avidresearch Don't understimate their chance to get lucky again

$IDYA contrast the impressive mPFS curves with KIMMTRAK

@jeromeleonard5 HR is good!

Mpfs a bit under my expectations, but still a homerun. Cheers all $idya longs!

@wisdomandboats Thanks for the color, you are helping me stay grounded in all this fracas

If this is true & the Houthis are starting to attack ships in the Red Sea, it’s likely Irans retaliation to Trumps blockade announced this morning If we’re looking at another Red Sea Crisis with the Bab al-Mandeb Strait closed again, this whole situation gets a lot more complex To note, during the previous Red Sea Crisis vessels doing business with China & Russia were able to pass for the most part. So if the Strait is closed again, Russian cargoes will most likely still be able to sail through, and so will cargoes to China, including a large portion of Yanbu exports that head towards China. Roughly about 2.5 million bpd of Yanbu crude exports head to China, and if Yanbu holds at maximum capacity, the other 3 million bpd will reroute to Europe and Asia via the Cape of Good Hope (CoGH). Unlike what some may think, VLCCs actually can go through the Suez; however, due to the draft of only 20.1 meters (66 feet), VLCCs can only transit laden with 1.3-1.6 million barrels. As part of the cargo has to be unloaded, transported through the Sumed pipeline (2.5 million bpd capacity), and reloaded at Sidi Kerir. Looking at the Yanbu (CoGH) route, the distance is very comparable to a USG/East route, being only about 100nm longer, depending on estimates. However, with the canal transit, pipeline usage, and port loadings/discharges, there is a high additional cost and an additional 4-6 days of voyage time. For instance, this kind of Yanbu route to Korea would take at least 55.5 days just to arrive in Korea, making this by far the most costly and time-consuming VLCC route. As a result, A large portion of these exports could head to European/Med refineries. As a result an increased amount of European/Med crude exports head East while Atlantic Basin crude exports to Europe will likely decline even more and redirect increasingly to Asia via VLCCs. If Yanbu exports are directed towards Europe, these will likely be done using Suezmaxes and Aframaxes, as a VLCC using the Sumed pipeline is more expensive and takes about the same time or even longer for USG, Guyana, and West Africa exports to Europe. As a result this scrambles global trade even more and makes a Middle East/Asia route one of the longest and most expensive voyages on the planet. If this happened we’ll likely see even more astronomical Tanker rates and probably higher oil prices. Great for shipping and oil prices, not so much for everyone else. #oott #tankers #iran

@Bernardo_D1983 @jeromeleonard5 I will never have cohones big enough 🤭

@jeromeleonard5 My portfolio is one stock. Smart.

Whatever you do, always keep a well diversified portfolio going into the weekend

@christankerfund @khoops77 20% increase! 😅

@khoops77 @17thfellow Hey NMM did raise the dividend ! From 5 cents to 6 cents ! 😅😅

$TEN turned green

@khoops77 @christankerfund Agree about warts, but it seems they are both trending in the right direction in terms of governance.

@17thfellow @christankerfund Well they definitely pay a better/higher dividend. I’m not totally up to date on NAVs but pretty sure NMM is cheaper of the 2 now. Plus $NMM is buying back stock, something $TEN will never do. Don’t get me wrong, both have warts. $NMM should raise divvy after stock buys done.

@Bernardo_D1983 at least all the tea leaves point into this direction.

@17thfellow We might start to think about chilling a good bottle of champagne.

$IDYA I was actually wondering today, why Logos didnt roll their 35 April 17 calls position when its almost at expiry and results are not supposed to be here for a few weeks. But they were right, and if they are right about the strike too, then it should be way more than 35+call premium

@khoops77 @christankerfund I hold $NMM too

@khoops77 @christankerfund I thought $TEN has approximately the same % to Nav, significantly higher Net LTV with variable rates debt though , but a tad more distribution friendly management. am I wrong?

@olaharaldmoen1 So $KOS and other producers are probably benefiting from higher physical prices even with majority of their oil production hedged by selling futures

#OOTT Imagine in 2 weeks!

@CRUDEOIL231 Does it mean that upstream oil producers are even more profitable now, even if they hedged their prices with futures? They should probably put this margin straight to the pocket

Apr 9 North Sea Platts window Total bid for Apr 30 - May 4 WTI Midland cargo at Dated Brent plus $22.35 CIF Rotterdam, equated to Dated Brent plus $19.25 on a FOB basis. And Trafigura bid for May 6-10 WTI Midland cargo at Dated Brent plus $21.60 CIF Rotterdam. Mercuria bid for May 5-9 WTI Midland cargo at Dated Brent plus $21.10 CIF Rotterdam. Gunvor bid for Apr 29 - May 1 Forties cargo at Dated Brent plus $21.85 FOB, while Total bid for Apr 28- May 8 Forties cargo at Dated Brent plus $21.00 FOB and Shell bid for May 6-8 Forties cargo at Dated Brent plus $20.25 FOB. Trafigura bid for Apr 21-23 Oseberg cargo at Dated Brent plus $21.65 FOB, while Total bid for Oseberg cargo Apr 26-28 at Dated Brent plus $21.15 FOB. Gunvor bid for May 7-9 Ekofisk cargo at Dated Brent plus $22.80 FOB and for Apr 24-26 Ekofisk cargo at Dated Brent plus $21.95 FOB. Trafigura bid for April 29 - May 1 Troll cargo at Dated Brent plus $23.55 FOB. It’s all bids. Just look at the physical players trying to grab crude even at these terrifying premiums. WAF crude diffs have also surged past Dated Brent+$10. It’s clear they don’t love peace! This definitely calls for a roar on Truth Social! #oott #iran