@avidresearch I don't put any stock into pre-market activity, no pun intended. Past few years, bios seemingly get smaller bumps post-data unless the data is considered either a "grand slam" or well above analyst predications.
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Keith Abrams
6.3K posts
Keith Abrams
@DeepSouthDoctor
Clinical psychologist, sex therapist, sex educator. Long-time SMID-cap biotech investor Stanford alum. Horse racing degenerate. Happy husband and father of 4.
Birmingham, AL Beigetreten Ağustos 2013
82 Folgt4.3K Follower
@DeepSouthDoctor price action had the optics of a raise coming ($43 in pre-market to $31s)
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@TO_BioInv They have over $1B in cash, and they're nowhere near 52-week highs, so I'd be very surprised if they raised.
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@DeepSouthDoctor I assume they are planning a raise AHs based on the price performance today
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$IDYA - couldn't resist. Sold at $37+ earlier this morning, re-bought at $31+ later this morning.
Trying to take advantage of seemingly irrational biotech market. May flip short-term or hold long-term. Pipeline is impressive, and they have a clear path to commercialization.
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@17thfellow I don't see a major catalyst until Q4, and it's hard for me to place a valuation on companies that are 18 months prior to commercialization (and longer to get a sense of sales ramp). Sold at $37+, would certainly consider buying back at similar price prior to next data.
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IMO makes sense to watch $IDYA’s PARG drug (161?). It depends a lot on what dose would be enough for a combo with Topo ADC’s because toxicity profile is similar, but I dont think its priced in and if it works, it will be a blockbuster. Free upside option but we probably don’t see results this year.
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$IDYA - sold for moderate profits. Hard to know how to value them, but thought data today was solid, will certainly have significant mOS data when mature.
$MLYS - sold for moderate loss. Would be tempted to buy back prior to Dec PDUFA date if price is right.
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Current positions in order of size (after recent transactions):
$TCMD $TECX $IOVA $ARDX $RIGL $IDYA $LEGN $EOLS $RGNX $MLYS
Re-bought $IOVA & $EOLS at nice discounts to what I sold them at in prior weeks.
Key Q2 data catalysts: $IDYA $RGNX
Up 17% YTD.
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$NBIX - I think they made a great deal, accretive to earnings. Am surprised stock is down pre-market.
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$SLNO - buyout a nice "welcome home" after travelling for 2+ weeks.
I must say that takeout price is much lower than I would have predicted and far off 52-weel highs. However, I'll always take 50% profit in 4 weeks. 😊😊
Keith Abrams@DeepSouthDoctor
$LEGN, $SLNO - bought both, the former for the 1st time. "Red days are for buying" and I see both names as undervalued, low-risk, profitable growth stories in biotech.
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@DeepSouthDoctor do you think guts recovers on their next readout?
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Biotech Q1 data release scorecard:
Wins: $CRVS $PVLA $VIR $XENE
Losses: $GUTS
Waiting on: $MLYS Ph2 in obesity w OSA/Hypertension
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@graystokev2 Up 8.4% YTD.
Big Winners: $CRVS $IOVA $VIR $PVLA $XENE
Big Losers: $GUTS $CRMD
Core Holdings: $TCMD $TECX. For the other current 10, all but one bought this monty, all in the red. We'll see what I keep come end of April.
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$ZVRA - bought a 50% position today. One of my fave profitable, growth story small/micro-cap bios out there. Hope to add more later, hold long-term.
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$CTMX - bought yesterday on weakness. I like buying great data at a price well below secondary raise on a "red" market day.
While I might be tempted to hold s-t for quick profits (if possible), I'm content to hold l-t as I'm very bullish on Varseta & its market opportunity.
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@bermudadude No. 2027 is a ways out and the company strongly hinted that they want other make an acquisition this year.
To me, any way you slice it, this company is absurdly cheap and at current price the downside seems extremely limited given its profitability.
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@DeepSouthDoctor Gotcha. Any idea why concensus expects flat eps on revenues up 13 pct? Thanks.
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$RIGL - bought 33% more, just think it's stupid cheap here.
FY 26/27 est. = $4.80 ($284m rev), $4.80 ($320m)
MC=$482m w $155m cash, $22m L-T Debt
2026/2027 Enterprise Value/revenue = 1.0 and 0.6 - unreal value.
Company wants to in-licn add'l post-Ph3 product this yr.
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@bermudadude Not my expectation, just posting consensus estimates from Yahoo.
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@DeepSouthDoctor Why do you expect flat eps in 2027 despite revenues going up 13pct?
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$IOVA - sold all shares. I don't like selling on "red days", but sold b/c wanted to raise cash, like my other holdings better, and feel company is not under-valued. Should have realized this sooner!
Still bullish on the company long-term.
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@jeromeleonard5 Agreed. There's a big difference between statistical significance and clinical significance.
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@DeepSouthDoctor It isn't about hitting P <.05, it's about how good HR will be <.25/.40>
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Re-bought $IDYA. Becoming more confident in Ph3 trial (likely reading out later this month) as I con't to examine and re-examine the data.
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$LEGN, $SLNO - bought both, the former for the 1st time.
"Red days are for buying" and I see both names as undervalued, low-risk, profitable growth stories in biotech.
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