
Lemon Water
5.7K posts


@EWErickson My base case is that he will do something entirely different. He never cares about being called taco.
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What's actually happening here is the President has embraced the "mad man" theory and is trying to convince the Iranians that he's willing to do whatever to wipe them out in hopes of getting a deal. The failure is that the President, like so many others, doesn't actually appreciate that the Iranians are mad men who live in a fundamentally religious world where they really do believe they are to wipe out Israel and their citizens are expendable. But no, this is not an unhinged President. It's a man playing a role as a negotiation tactic. Unfortunately, the President is going to be backed into a corner of extreme options by doing this, or be mocked for TACO again.

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@piersmorgan Hey man did you call out the IRGC for war crimes? Pearl clutching over a post...just go buy more pearls?
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@RyanFedasiuk @abcnews At some point we should be capable of shooting down their satellites.
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The @abcnews is out this morning with a disturbing story: The IRGC is actively making use of detailed satellite imagery and analysis published by MizarVision, a Chinese geospatial analytics company — and has used this data to target American, Australian, and allied forces in the Middle East.
This is a fluid and fast-moving situation and I want to be clear about what we know so far.
1️⃣ It's clear U.S. forces in the Gulf are operating in an environment that is very different from any other they have encountered previously.
Commercial satellite imagery collected by foreign companies is now available at a quality and frequency that is good enough to put U.S. combat forces in harm's way.
This is ultimately why U.S. collection platforms like @vantortech and @planet chose this weekend to suspend their coverage over the Middle East.
Unfortunately, predictably, foreign competitors like MizarVision see no reason to censor their own product offerings.
2️⃣ The implications are grim: ostensibly private Chinese AI companies are directly helping the Iranian regime target U.S. and allied forces in the region.
The ABC has information that the IRGC is striking U.S. facilities "within hours" of MizarVision publishing them.
I told @henryzwartz that this would effectively amount to Iranian forces outsourcing targeting data to a Chinese company: It is "the greatest degree of support we have seen China provide to a proxy force against the United States" — there is really no other way to read it.
3️⃣ If the Chinese government wanted to rein in the actions of MizarVision and other imagery providers, it could. And it should.
Spokespersons from @MFA_China have so far attempted to downplay the significance of this development. I'm willing to buy that Chinese officials haven't been aware of the importance of this particular imagery or the extent of its use by the IRGC — but China should recognize this is an extremely serious development. We're talking about Chinese enterprises directly supplying actionable intelligence to wartime enemies of the United States.
MizarVision has spent weeks zeroing in on U.S. forces and bases in the region and publishing their activities on its Weibo account. It hasn't done the same to Iran. It's very clear what is going on here — and it is unacceptable.
This doesn't have to be a story about China. It's clear the United States is also learning about the battlefield potential of commercial sat imagery in real-time.
Beijing should understand that U.S. concerns at this moment are deadly serious. I expect the U.S. government will do everything in its power to defend its personnel.
China should mirror the U.S. suspension of commercial satellite imagery collection over the Middle East.
abc.net.au/news/2026-04-0…
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But there is surely no such thing as an algorithm to suppress democratic voices, right @elonmusk ?
Nate Silver@NateSilver538
These are the Twitter/X accounts with the most engagement so far in 2026. I suppose I had some intuition for how bad it was, but jeez, this is what you get when the ecosystem is broken.
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Niece of slain Iranian IRGC chief Qasem Soleimani shared pro-regime propaganda prior to being arrested by ICE.
Hamideh Soleimani Afshar shared a post celebrating an Iranian strike on Israel and another post about a direct threat against America.
The 47 year old, who was living a lavish lifestyle in Los Angeles, was arrested after being exposed by independent journalist @LauraLoomer.
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@reddit_lies @NateSilver538 No he just tweaks data to fit his own narrative. This is essentially THE data business.
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@NateSilver538 So you admit you’re just a graph monkey and don’t know how to do due diligence to investigate datasets for accuracy.
You are at the ideological mercy of the datascrapers.
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It's not my data.
The source is Cluvio, which is linked to in the article. I'd link to it in this tweet, but ironically, that would kill engagement.
And I know that traffic is hard to count. Especially for a private company. But if you have more accurate data, then publish it.
Nikita Bier@nikitabier
@NateSilver538 Data isn’t accurate. Missing half the network.
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Lemon Water retweetet

In June 2025, Iranian missiles struck the world-renowned Weizmann Institute of Science, causing “catastrophic losses” to life sciences research & shutting down 52 labs, including EU-funded ones.
In March 2026, a cluster warhead hit Technion in Haifa - one of the world’s premier STEM universities.
Neither drew a word from Yassamin Ansari.
So Congresswoman, spare me the manufactured outrage, and shove it where the sun don’t shine.




Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari@RepYassAnsari
Sharif University is Iran’s MIT. They’ve produced a huge number of engineers who’ve gone on to Silicon Valley and founded some of the most successful American tech companies. Why are we bombing a university in a city of 10 million people?
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Given this has me down as ‘right-leaning’, I question its accuracy or relevance….
Nate Silver@NateSilver538
These are the Twitter/X accounts with the most engagement so far in 2026. I suppose I had some intuition for how bad it was, but jeez, this is what you get when the ecosystem is broken.
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@War_Radar2 We will just say good luck. The British have lost their ways.
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BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇬🇧 Britain’s operational limits laid bare.
“We do not have the platforms, the satellites, the reach or the mass. Our rescue plan, if the airman were British, would be to call the U.S.” — The Telegraph
A blunt reminder of the gap in global reach and military capability
And why allies still rely on U.S. power projection in critical moments.
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@zerohedge Irrelevant. The Chinese and the Russians would supply the same info to Iran.
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US Satellite Firm 'Indefinitely Withholds' Iran War Images Per Government Request zerohedge.com/geopolitical/u…
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Lemon Water retweetet

@DoomDotOrg @citrini No. The WSJ and Bloomberg have printed more and more sht in the past two years. WSJ is now paid PR by now.
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Strait of Hormuz: A CitriniResearch Field Trip
The Field Report from Analyst #3 is live.
citriniresearch.com/p/strait-of-ho…
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@HansMahncke I don't read the times. It is a propaganda machine.
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The story behind the New York Times’ 1903 claim that human flight was between one and ten million years away is even worse than it looks.
Once you understand the backstory, you realize that the New York Times story is not really about flight at all but about how elites and credentialed “experts” mistake their own failures for the boundaries of possibility.
The New York Times did not dismiss the possibility of powered flight at random. There was a very specific reason behind it. At the time, America’s most prominent scientific authority, Smithsonian Secretary Samuel Langley, had been showered with large amounts of taxpayer funding to build an aircraft, the Langley Aerodrome. Despite all the money, institutional backing, and elite prestige, Langley and his team could not get it to fly, culminating in a series of very public failures, the last on December 8, 1903.
So when the New York Times declared that flight was millions of years away, what it was really saying was that if the most credentialed and well-funded “experts” cannot do it, then it cannot be done.
A mere nine days later, the elites’ proclamation of impossibility lay in ruins. Two totally unknown bicycle mechanics from Ohio achieved the first powered flight using improvised parts, a few hundred dollars of their own money, and sheer persistence.
The story of flight is, at its core, a story of the triumph of American individualism over elite credentialism. The fact that it was the New York Times that inadvertently delivered the proof is the most fitting conclusion imaginable.
Aaron Ng@localghost
"Man won't fly for a million years" – NYT 1903
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Lemon Water retweetet

@liz_churchill10 Then their ship got hit. Appeasement never works.
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@RichardHaass You have never fought. You only write. You don't know more than your neighborhood bodega owner.
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@robinmonotti You are just jealous that our lives are worth more.
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@michaeldweiss This was when my tax dollars were used wisely.
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"The op basically cost $300 million because they had to abandon the two AFSOC C-130s and the four MH-6 Little Birds. Then the U.S. Air Force had to use multiple bombs to blow up all the aircraft they abandoned at that airstrip. And the Iranians shot down 2 MQ-9s Reaper drones.
"Luckily the U.S. suffered no casualties and we had to use multiple bombs and missiles to blow up IRGC vehicles that tried to drive up the mountain and also those that tried to drive to the airstrip." 2/2

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Details about the rescue op for the U.S. Weapon Systems Officer, via a U.S. military official:
"The mountain top area on the left is where the WSO was hiding (he ejected 5ish miles northwest of there). The right area is the makeshift landing strip where they landed 2 C-130s and had 4 MH-6 Little Birds.
"One Little Bird flew to that mountain top area and rescued the WSO and brought him back to the landing strip. And of course the two C-130s' nose gears got stuck in the dirt. So after a few hours they had to bring in three AFSOC Dash-8s to fly out the rescued WSO and the 100 or so personnel involved in the op." 1/2

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