AttemptAtCivility
3.1K posts
Maybe the most important emerging political divide in politics is that Dems are positioning themselves as Principled Luddites in opposition to AI. HUGE win for the right if the right can avoid collapsing into apocalyptic hysterics over these new tools. Like generational dominance kind of win.
The US social mood is turning dramatically negative on AI
during the first attack we lectured the pause ai community on how their words hold weight and lead to violence. but we didn’t think to then feel the weight of our own. instead of showing people how AI will make life better, how it will give us all just a little bit more time in life for the things we really care about, how it fix our broken government or healthcare systems - we’ve spent the last few years telling people the story of AI is one where AGI makes humans unnecessary, that everyone will lose the jobs they work so hard at to barely get by, and making jokes about the permanent underclass and we wonder why the people fear us and revolt?
Notice that last sentence, that is the revealed goal of this engineered chaos. The anti-AI push is funded by the CCP if you look deep enough in the money flow graph. This is China trying to subvert us to destroy us. We must win the AI race, our freedom depends on it.
wtf. This is the atmosphere certain people and orgs have directly / indirectly caused.
Breaking Points' @esaagar says AI companies are "fighting against a very, very big force" in the US. "There's this rising populist tide against the data center movement. And against Abundance-style assurances from politicians and companies." "Something is happening. The tide has not only turned, but coming." "People just feel like this is out of their control. About AI especially. They're like, 'I want impact. I want a say.'" "There's an overwhelming animus, and people are angry. It's about a lack of control. 'You're coming to take my job, you're increasing my electricity prices, you're changing my nation. And I have to have a say as a citizen.'" "It's no longer just about electricity, it's about the whole picture."
When I ran the numbers on renting and investing the difference vs. buying a home, I used national averages and y'all lost your minds. Fair enough. This time I used two real listings in Durham, NC with matching bedrooms and comparable square footage. Apples to apples. The properties: - For sale: 305 Reynolds Ave — $389,000 / 3bd 2ba / 1,580 sqft - For rent: 1526 Smoky Mountains St — $1,950/mo / 3bd 2.5ba / 1,658 sqft The setup: - Mortgage rate: 6.50% (30yr fixed, 10% down) - Durham combined property tax rate: 0.99% - Home insurance: $1,721/yr (avg for 27707 zip) Buyer monthly cost (Year 1): - P&I: $2,213 - Property tax: $321 - Insurance: $143 - Maintenance (1%): $324 - PMI: $146 Total: $3,148/mo Renter monthly cost (Year 1): - Rent: $1,950 - Renters insurance: $14 Total: $1,964/mo The renter saves $1,184/mo. Plus the $50,570 in down payment and closing costs never leaves their pocket. All of it goes into $VOO. This time I'm accounting for what everyone said I missed: Assumptions: - Rent increases 3.5%/yr (it is NOT frozen) - Property tax increases 2%/yr - Home insurance increases 3%/yr - Home appreciates 3.4%/yr (avg since 1891) - S&P 500 returns 10%/yr (long-term avg) - PMI drops once equity hits 20% - Selling costs: 6% (agent commissions + transfer taxes) - Capital gains tax: 15% on stocks - Home sale exclusion: $500K (married couple) All results are AFTER taxes and selling costs Results: 1. After 10 years: - Renter net (after cap gains tax): $299K - Buyer net (after selling costs): $214K Renter wins by $85K 2. After 20 years: - Renter net: $815K - Buyer net: $519K Renter wins by $296K 3. After 30 years: - Renter net: $2.16M - Buyer net: $971K Renter wins by $1.19M "But rent will be $5,473/mo in 30 years." Yes. And the renter's portfolio generates $18K/mo at a 10% return. Even at a conservative 4% withdrawal rate, that's $7,200/mo. You can pay rent and still never touch the principal. What this still doesn't capture: - HELOC access / borrowing against equity - Refinancing if rates drop - Forced savings effect (most renters won't invest the difference) - Intangible value of ownership, stability, no landlord - HOA fees (if applicable) - Major repairs beyond 1% (roof, HVAC, plumbing) - Geographic differences: these numbers are Durham, NC. Your market will be different. A home is a place to live. It can also be a great financial decision depending on your market, discipline, and goals. But the "renting is throwing money away" crowd needs to run the numbers before they say that. Not financial advice. Run your own numbers.
