Alexander Kline
2.3K posts
Alexander Kline
@AlexanderKline
Father, Business Futurist & Publisher of The Boundary Layer, Founding Partner https://t.co/5zyzujcTfm, AK Consulting https://t.co/tdVZCzMLM7
Victoria, BC Beigetreten Haziran 2010
5.3K Folgt716 Follower
What are the best businesses to be in a post-AGI world?
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@TXOwallet @LilithDatura The time stamps between call and arrival are pretty quick
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@LilithDatura He did not call the Boulder police to his home only to make them witness that that is not in his make up they’re full of it
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I guess this is official, I’m sorry that you heard it from me first. So strange and I’m very suspicious.
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@BrianRoemmele @david_wilcock One of the greatest researchers, and writers of our time, consistent for the last 30 years too. He will be missed dearly - his optimistic outlook and combined dorkyness was humanistic and endearing. Wish he got to see the golden era of integration he spoke of and wanted for all.
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Rest in peace David Wilcock @david_wilcock.
My prayers go out to all who loved him and will miss him.
Meeting him at the conscious life expo and contact in the desert showed me a brilliant mind that loved life and this moment in time.
His last public words…
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Full piece on The Boundary Layer, with the numbers and what a Canadian build might look like.
open.substack.com/pub/alexanderk…
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The average patient was always a fiction. The tools to stop pretending arrived.
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Two stories lit up the feeds last month. A Sydney data analyst designed a personalized mRNA vaccine for his dying dog using ChatGPT, AlphaFold, and Grok. Three thousand dollars. Seventy five percent tumor reduction in a month.
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@variousred @lolknicks @jessegenet @openclaw @NousResearch @grok yea I'm sure the cost could be brought down, especially if it was more mainstream
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GIANT e-ink display LIVE in my house and actively removing the “mental load” of motherhood 😅
Turns out my household chaos just needed to be tamed by a display my team of @openclaw and @NousResearch Hermes agents manage for me 💅
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@SethSHowes @Cernovich Amazing, just wrote about something similar, the personalized health wave coming is going to be the biggest improvement to medicine we’ll have seen in 100 years open.substack.com/pub/alexanderk…
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I’ve wanted to do this for a decade.
But I never did - I refuse to give any company my DNA.
It is me.
So this week I sequenced my genome entirely at home. Literally on my kitchen table.
I never exposed my DNA sequence to the internet. Not at any point.
I used a MinION to do the sequencing (it’s smaller + weighs less than an iPhone).
I used open-source DNA models for the analysis (Evo2 and AlphaGenome) running locally on a DGX Spark and Mac Studio.
I traced mechanisms behind my family’s multigenerational autoimmune conditions that no clinician has been able to understand.
When I set out to do this I didn’t know if it would actually work. It does.
Your genome is the most private data you will ever have. You probably shouldn’t let it leave your house.
Patrick Collison@patrickc
I'm lucky enough to have a great doctor and access to excellent Bay Area medical care. I've taken lots of standard screening tests over the years and have tried lots of "health tech" devices and tools. With all this said, by far the most useful preventative medical advice that I've ever received has come from unleashing coding agents on my genome, having them investigate my specific mutations, and having them recommend specific follow-on tests and treatments. Population averages are population averages, but we ourselves are not averages. For example, it turns out that I probably have a 30x(!) higher-than-average predisposition to melanoma. Fortunately, there are both specific supplements that help counteract the particular mutations I have, and of course I can significantly dial up my screening frequency. So, this is very useful to know. I don't know exactly how much the analysis cost, but probably less than $100. Sequencing my genome cost a few hundred dollars. (One often sees papers and articles claiming that models aren't very good at medical reasoning. These analyses are usually based on employing several-year-old models, which is a kind of ludicrous malpractice. It is true that you still have to carefully monitor the agents' reasoning, and they do on occasion jump to conclusions or skip steps, requiring some nudging and re-steering. But, overall, they are almost literally infinitely better for this kind of work than what one can otherwise obtain today.) There are still lots of questions about how this will diffuse and get adopted, but it seems very clear that medical practice is about to improve enormously. Exciting times!
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@jpschroeder My guess is they cant pay their Amazon compute bills
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Starting doubt the Mythos narrative. If they have a God model then why:
- Is Opus 4.7 so bad
- Is Claude Code so buggy
- Is Claude Desktop unfinished
- Is the API down all the time
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@brivael What if eyes could also shoot lasers for detection through fog or rain or snow , glare and other conditions that blind drivers. Curious what technology “long range scanners” will be based on. Ghost murmur tech perhaps?
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Aujourd'hui grosse discussion avec mes ingés (chez Argil) sur pourquoi Elon a viré le LIDAR de ses voitures autonomes. Choix radical, moqué pendant des années, et comme d'hab il avait raison depuis le début.
Le LIDAR c'est un laser qui balaye l'environnement et crache un nuage de points 3D. Sur le papier tu obtiens la géométrie exacte du monde. Dans la vraie vie c'est une verrue technologique collée sur le toit parce qu'on sait pas faire mieux avec la vision seule.
Problème numéro un : ça rajoute une modalité dans le training du modèle. Ton réseau doit apprendre à fusionner vision + lidar + radar + ultrasons. Chaque capteur en plus c'est une source de désaccord à arbitrer, pas une source d'info supplémentaire. Sensor fusion artisanale = dette technique permanente.
Problème numéro deux, la bitter lesson de Rich Sutton : scaler le compute sur une seule modalité bat systématiquement les architectures bricolées à la main. Tesla a dropé le radar, puis les ultrasons, est passé full end-to-end vision. Leur courbe sur les edge cases s'est accélérée APRÈS, pas avant. Waymo fait l'inverse et reste stuck en ops géofencée.
Problème numéro trois, le plus fondamental : le LIDAR voit la géométrie, pas la sémantique. Il sait qu'il y a un truc, pas ce que c'est ni ce que ça va faire. Les derniers 9 de fiabilité sont des problèmes de cognition, pas de perception brute. Un capteur de plus résout rien, il ajoute du bruit.
Sébastien Loeb balance une 208 T16 à 180 dans un chemin boueux corse sous la pluie avec zéro LIDAR. Deux yeux, un cerveau. L'évolution a donné des yeux aux prédateurs pendant 500 millions d'années, pas des lasers. Il y a une raison.
Le LIDAR c'est l'équivalent du marxisme appliqué à l'économie. Une solution planifiée, centralisée, qui prétend modéliser explicitement ce qui doit émerger d'un système distribué et adaptatif. Tu remplaces l'intelligence par de la mesure, la compréhension par de la donnée, l'émergence par le contrôle. Ça rassure les ingénieurs qui veulent tout spécifier en amont, exactement comme la planif rassurait les économistes soviétiques. Et ça échoue pour les mêmes raisons : la réalité est trop riche pour être capturée par un capteur, comme elle est trop riche pour être capturée par un plan quinquennal.
La vraie intelligence, celle de Hayek comme celle de Tesla, c'est de faire confiance à un système qui apprend de l'expérience plutôt que de tout pré-encoder. L'élégance d'une solution c'est son rapport signal sur complexité. Le LIDAR explose le dénominateur.
Défendre le LIDAR en 2026 c'est préférer empiler des hacks plutôt que résoudre le vrai problème. C'est de la feignasserie intellectuelle maquillée en rigueur d'ingénieur. Les mêmes gens qui défendaient les systèmes experts en 2012 contre le deep learning. Ils finiront pareil.
Never bet against end-to-end. Never bet against la simplicité. Never bet against Elon.
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@theo They should probably close whatever investment they were waiting for before user sentiment fully turns on them
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