AllThingsVentured

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AllThingsVentured

AllThingsVentured

@AllVentured

Bold and unfiltered takes on trade, shipping, and commodities. Not investment advice.

Denver CO Beigetreten Ağustos 2019
1.1K Folgt12.9K Follower
AllThingsVentured
AllThingsVentured@AllVentured·
The guys with the guns x.com/staunovo/statu…
Giovanni Staunovo🛢@staunovo

Iran’s military force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), denied that Iran would sign an agreement with the United States on Sunday and criticized President Donald Trump’s “unusual insistence” on signing the agreement that day. The IRGC described the timeline as a “test for Iran’s negotiating team” and that Trump’s announcement comes “despite Iranian negotiators explicitly stating that the memorandum has not yet been finalized and that signing on Sunday is definitely not happening.” cnn.com/2026/06/13/wor…

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AllThingsVentured@AllVentured·
We know who in Iran controls the media and the tweets. But who controls the guns and ballistic missiles? The latter are the people that have to agree to the deal.
First Squawk@FirstSquawk

PAKISTAN PM SHARIF: AMID ONGOING INTENSE MEDIATION EFFORTS BY PAKISTAN, WE ARE FULLY AWARE OF INCESSANT MISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN BEING WAGED BY THOSE WHO WANT TO SABOTAGE THE PEACE DEAL. SETTING ASIDE THE NOISE, WE CAN CONFIRM THAT A FINAL, AGREED UPON TEXT OF THE PEACE DEAL HAS BEEN REACHED AND PAKISTAN IS NOW WORKING CLOSELY WITH BOTH SIDES TO FINALIZE THE NEXT STEPS. PEACE HAS NEVER BEEN THIS CLOSE AS IT IS NOW.

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AllThingsVentured
AllThingsVentured@AllVentured·
@Rory_Johnston Oh I’m collecting. Mine will be a coffee table book. Maybe I’ll also do one of those little booklets to read on the shitter. “Shit takes”
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AllThingsVentured
AllThingsVentured@AllVentured·
Within 3 years: every neocloud, $ORCL, SoftBank, and hundreds of other SPVs and companies financing AI capex with 0 ROI…
Vitaliy Katsenelson@vitaliyk

What's happening today in AI infrastructure looks very similar to the 1998-1999 fiber optics overbuilding. People said internet demand would be huge and insatiable. They were right. Demand was huge and insatiable. But guess what? Most of those companies either went bankrupt or nearly did. When everybody invests at once, you get overcapacity.

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AllThingsVentured@AllVentured·
@LVision_Trading Ya and it seems to be smaller ships like MRs running the Omani gauntlet and doing the reverse lightering to the VLCCs via STS.
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Laman
Laman@LVision_Trading·
HORMUZ | Who is moving 4-5 mbd of oil in darkness that Bloomberg is talking about? Not commercial operators. ~100M bbls sits in ~70 vessels in the Gulf I can name by IMO - they are not going anywhere (yet). What is not in my list: state-owned fleets that self-insure: ◼ Bahri (Saudi) — 50 VLCCs ◼ KOTC (Kuwait) — 11 VLCCs ◼ ADNOC L&S (UAE) — 8 VLCCs ◼ SOMO (Iraq) — chartered dark transits They don’t need Lloyd’s. They own the cargo, the hull, and the political risk, and can afford betting a kidney on moving their own bbls out. The ~100M bbls unlocks when war risk insurance reopens. The “shuttle infrastructure” covers 1/4 of regular traffic (~5 out of 20mbd). Lets assume another ~5mbd use alternative routes. Remaining ~10mbd which coincide with shut-in production require restoration of COMMERCIAL flows. The burning question for me: does it justify oil prices ONLY $16 above pre-war level?.. $OIL NFA
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AllThingsVentured@AllVentured·
@DBatDad @TheMitHooks All diesel is not spoken for. You can still hit the very cheap offer and take delivery. The question is why they aren’t doing it.
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AllThingsVentured
AllThingsVentured@AllVentured·
Tankers are going to make insane rates when the strait opens but they gotta clear the mines first. These dark transits seem to be mostly MR size that are less risky to navigate Omani coast. That’s why so many large tankers are stuck inside.
Giovanni Staunovo🛢@staunovo

Shipowners are watching warily for a peace deal between the US and Iran and what it would mean for the Strait of Hormuz, with some tanker owners expressing caution, while others were already predicting a frantic free-for-all if the waterway opens in earnest. There are about 127 oil tankers currently inside the Persian Gulf, according to Signal Maritime data — although it warns the figure is hard to be confident of. Dozens of others have positioned themselves near the strait, to be ready to take advantage of a surge in demand if traffic resumes. #oott bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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AllThingsVentured@AllVentured·
@jbulltard1 They have all told you they would rather go bankrupt than lose a race to the bottom. And they are all losing from an economic perspective. Good enough Chinese models that are far superior from a value perspective are 4 months behind. There is a reason we don’t all own Ferraris.
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jbulltard
jbulltard@jbulltard1·
You all have to stop mentioning P/E ratios with these hyperscalers bc they’re spending an insane amount of money and until the market sees a roic it isn’t rewarding these things bc there’s a chance all this capex doesn’t work out. They’re utilities now with never ending capex
jbulltard tweet media
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AllThingsVentured@AllVentured·
@TheMitHooks So buy a cargo of diesel. Prices aren’t that crazy. Economic expense of going without is far higher. Stay in stock and let the market allocate it at market prices.
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George Commodities
George Commodities@TheMitHooks·
@AllVentured What crude grades do those refineries actually run? India's Jamnagar is configured for Gulf heavy sour. Swap in light sweet and diesel yield drops. $85 doesn't fix that.
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AllThingsVentured
AllThingsVentured@AllVentured·
@EconBerger @KennyCap_Phd I use the whole mosaic of available data and my brain. I strongly advise against relying solely on government data. Especially the “headline” data. The underlying data often tells the real story if you don’t try to rationize the headline items that make no sense.
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Guy Berger
Guy Berger@EconBerger·
@AllVentured @KennyCap_Phd I very strongly urge against using the job cut announcements data as an indicator of the volume of layoffs. It captures only a small and highly unrepresentative share of actual layoffs
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Guy Berger
Guy Berger@EconBerger·
In another sign of slow but real labor market improvement, unemployment insurance exhaustion rates have peaked and are falling (extremely slowly).
Guy Berger tweet media
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AllThingsVentured@AllVentured·
Job cuts elevated for 3 straight years with the UE rate rising steadily until they started to drop the participation rate instead of letting U3 headline rise further. Just got the highest may job cuts since 2020. Fewer people holding full time jobs in the US every month for the past 3 years, but sure "layoffs are low" and Santa fits down the chimney.
AllThingsVentured tweet mediaAllThingsVentured tweet media
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Roger
Roger@rdd147·
Buy dated $spce calls. Under $1 billion and there is about to be 100 space ETFs
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AllThingsVentured@AllVentured·
I happen to know that Iran still has one secret factory that manufactures god candles for the oil chart that did not get bombed. They have held this secret weapon in reserve so far... lets see if this MOU is real.
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AllThingsVentured@AllVentured·
@BranderYuri Sounds like they planned poorly. Lets see if they want to roll the dice on more shortages or buy some oil.
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Yuri
Yuri@BranderYuri·
@AllVentured Futures, in other words it's a promise not something actually deliverable in the here and now.
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AllThingsVentured@AllVentured·
@AccurizedNom Last I checked it IS possible to load a tanker of WTI in the US gulf and ship it to India.
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Aloha Rebel
Aloha Rebel@AccurizedNom·
@AllVentured WTI price is real. So is transit time to India. 45-60 days from US Gulf or VZ ports. Compare 5 days Hormuz to India W coast ports. Supply is plentiful in the Americas. It’s adequate in Europe with N & W African suppliers. S & E Asia are most dependent on Gulf supply.
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@Rory_Johnston @LVision_Trading @chigrl @DBatDad @TheMitHooks @jbulltard1 @OilandEnergy @EconBerger