Laman

LVision is a personal Oil & Gas volatility trading portfolio aiming for 25% average annual realized return on deployed capital (net of fees), with a target maximum drawdown of 40%. Platform: IG Markets Portfolio architecture: ▪️ 50% Mathilda — Brent crude oil volatility strategy ▪️ 25% Nathalie — US natural gas volatility strategy ▪️ 25% Cash reserve Capital deployment roadmap: Phase 1: $100k in 2026 Phase 2: $200k in 2027 Phase 3: $300k in 2028 Phase 4: $400k in 2029 Target state: $500k in 2030 enabling retirement ($125k pre-tax annual earnings) Until target state is reached all profits are reinvested.

HORMUZ | documented weekly transit 12 | KOS | Liberia | Saudi Arabia > Singapore, Commercial Aframax Full weekly update on the status of all transit vessels trapped in the Persian Gulf is coming in few hours.

AL SIDDEEQ (9853486) dark 55d AL KOUT (9653434) dark 55d AL YARMOUK (9653422) dark 73d AL DERWAZAH (9653410) dark 19d AL FUNTAS (9653408) dark 18d AL RIQQA (9534808) dark 12d AL SALMI (9534793) dark 73d UMM AL AISH (9534781) dark 16d DAR SALWA (9534779) dark 10d AL JABRIYAH II (9329708) dark 21d

$OIL & HORMUZ | What are KOTC VLCCs transporting? Kuwait cut ~2.8 mbd production in early March (force majeure on shipments). 10 KOTC VLCCs are dark between 73 and 10 days. 🧐 EITHER production is not as shut as it seems OR KOTC vessels are carrying someone else’s crude?

I just checked 9 Kuwaiti vessels i could find by name. All. Completely. Dark! Any chance you could check what they were up to somehow? These might be the sneaky ducklings… |Vessel |IMO |Last ping |AL SIDDEEQ |9853486| 55d+ ago |AL KOUT |9653434| 55d 16h ago |AL YARMOUK |9653422| 73d 15h ago |AL DERWAZAH |9653410| 19d 17h ago |AL FUNTAS |9653408| 18d 23h ago |AL RIQQA |9534808| 12d 4h ago |AL SALMI |9534793| 73d 14h ago |UMM AL AISH |9534781| 16d 7h ago |DAR SALWA |9534779| 10d 0h ago |AL JABRIYAH II|9329708| 21d 23h ago

Sal, I want to believe this, but there is little evidence of these transits happening. We have had fairly consistent Synthetic Aperture Radar coverage of the Strait. Usually at least one partial pass per day. I haven't seen a VLCC using the inshore traffic scheme in weeks. It possible the timing of the passes just isn't matching up, of course, but this was a full coverage pass two days ago and there isn't even a single ship in or near the inshore lane. On a 4-6 hour transit you'd think we'd be seeing something, even just a glimpse entering or exiting. There is no doubt STS transfers are happening, on both sides of the Strait, but I find it almost impossible to believe many laden VLCCs are sneaking out, transferring to empty vessels, then going back in to repeat the process and none of them ever show up on SAR imagery. Again, it could be a timing thing, but we've got imagery going back fairly consistently for a month and there just isn't VLCC sized traffic to be found within the inshore route. I also have major questions about the $40B reinsurance backstop. DFC lacks the lending power to fully insure these vessels and federal law caps the amount any single party can receive to 5% of DFC's Maximum Contingent Liability, which is far less than the cost of even one single insured event if a laden VLCC is struck and sunk when you include pollution and salvage. Lastly, there is no indication any "secret" oil is reaching markets anywhere in the world. If these vessels are getting out with millions of barrels of oil, where is it?

President Trump has posted that 100 Million barrels of oil are making its way through the Strait. This appears to be what is happening. ⚓️President Trump and @CENTCOM announced Project Freedom to escort ships through the Strait. The US evacuated two US ships but then curtailed the operation. ⚓️It appears that the US resumed the operation using autonomous vehicles, aircraft and drones to escort ships through the southern part of the Strait, near the coast of Oman. ⚓️Iran has responded with targeting of some ships, these include HMM Namu and CMA CGM San Antonio. The US has responded with airstrikes against Iran. ⚓️ What has transpired is tankers, including Very Large Crude Carriers are exiting the Persian Gulf. Then, per @TankerTrackers, the VLCCs are conducting ship-to-ship (STS) transfers to other tankers in the Gulf of Oman. ⚓️The empty tankers, which ran the Strait with their AIS, run back through the Strait to pick up a new load of oil from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar or Iraq. ⚓️The Apache helicopter that recently crashed was probably a part of this operation. ⚓️This explains why we have not seen an appreciable drop in the number of ships stuck in the Persian Gulf. By running the same ships, war risk insurance, potentially provided by the US through the Development Finance Corporation (DFC) through a pool of approximately of $40 billion, could be covering these ships making the transits. ⚓️This would also explain the recent announcement by Kuwait to fix new contracts for its oil. ⚓️The question is how long is this sustainable and at what level is oil moving daily. With current pipelines through Saudi Arabia and the UAE, this system would need to move approximately 12-14M barrels/day through the Strait. This analysis is based on open source material, but big shout out to @TankerTrackers @Kpler @MarineTraffic @LloydsList @gCaptain for their postings and research.

Hi Matt! I have been staring at MarineTraffic since May 10 and can name some VLCCs that did cross for sure. Date might be not exact as many i catch on the other side but some did cross. I can justify ~2mbd with these + all the smaller ones I see: May 10KIARA M May 10AGIOS FANOURIOS I May 13YUAN HUA HU May 13ENEOS ENDEAVOR May 20OCEAN LILY May 20YUAN GUI YANG May 20UNIVERSAL WINNER May 23EAGLE VERONA May 26EAGLE VERACRUZ May 26NISSOS KEROS May 28SANMAR HERALD But my hypothesis is we should look through state owned fleet (Kuwait/Saudi/UAE/Iraq). On VLCC STSs: the STS shuttle model only works at scale for smaller vessels. VLCC cargo = 8-20 days of STS time alone. The “20 ships/night” claim is arithmetically impossible if those ships are VLCCs doing STS transfers. Either the vessels are MR/products tankers (~300k bbl each) or the numbers are wrong. 20 × 300k bbl MR tankers = 6M bbl/night = 6 mbd. That actually works mathematically and matches the ships I catch regularly (funky names broadcasted though). With a 3-7 day cycle per vessel, they need 60-140 MR tankers permanently in rotation just to sustain 6 mbd. THIS scale I don’t see…

@DrJStrategy By reopening what got closed post his intervention and blocking a path that Tehran never had an ambition to pursue at the cost of billions to his taxpayers, Trump will become a case study in the history of very costly mistakes.

Trump’s Trafalgar Moment Trump’s Iran deal is best understood through the lens of Trafalgar: a decisive victory that does not end every conflict, but closes the enemy’s best route to success and reshapes the strategic landscape. By reopening the Strait of Hormuz, blocking Tehran’s path to a nuclear weapon, and cutting off the financial backing of global terrorism, Trump has broken Iran’s core leverage without a wider ground war. The closure and reopening of the Strait has changed the rules of the “great game” in energy security, putting the United States back at the center of global energy markets. Investors should expect critics to pan the agreement as insufficiently decisive, but they should ignore the pedantry: the rules of the game have changed and the forces for complete victory have been set in motion. Nelson’s victory at Trafalgar did not end every battle, but it closed off Napoleon’s best route to victory and set the course of the war. The end of the Cold War did not abolish conflict, but it delivered a peace dividend that reshaped economies. Trump’s deal with Iran stands in that line, a decisive strategic win with far-reaching economic and market consequences. The critics were not satisfied when Maduro fell, and they will not be satisfied now, but history will be, and capital will be too, because a peace dividend akin to the one that followed the end of the Cold War will not be ignored.

On Feb 23 Brent opened at ~70 and today it is at 86. But fair challenge, we could say average for 2025 pre war was ~65 so today it is ~$20 higher. BUT if we compare fundamentals: Pre-war: structurally oversupplied market with ~2mbd pending OPEC cuts yet to be unwind, swelling inventories. Today: structurally tight market missing ~10mbd of shut in production for 100+ days now AND it doesn’t seem it restarts tomorrow. This is what puzzles me. Do you think it is an adequate price?

@LVision_Trading Why 16 - it’s 26 above 60$ Also if you add 2 mbs glut pre-war might be right ?

HORMUZ | Who is moving 4-5 mbd of oil in darkness that Bloomberg is talking about? Not commercial operators. ~100M bbls sits in ~70 vessels in the Gulf I can name by IMO - they are not going anywhere (yet). What is not in my list: state-owned fleets that self-insure: ◼ Bahri (Saudi) — 50 VLCCs ◼ KOTC (Kuwait) — 11 VLCCs ◼ ADNOC L&S (UAE) — 8 VLCCs ◼ SOMO (Iraq) — chartered dark transits They don’t need Lloyd’s. They own the cargo, the hull, and the political risk, and can afford betting a kidney on moving their own bbls out. The ~100M bbls unlocks when war risk insurance reopens. The “shuttle infrastructure” covers 1/4 of regular traffic (~5 out of 20mbd). Lets assume another ~5mbd use alternative routes. Remaining ~10mbd which coincide with shut-in production require restoration of COMMERCIAL flows. The burning question for me: does it justify oil prices ONLY $16 above pre-war level?.. $OIL NFA

HORMUZ | two more transits seen today: 10 | KANHA (OIL LAUNDRY) | Palau | Kuwait > Outbound | Oil/Chemical Tanker, Grey (12,887 DWT — manual wash) 11 | ATMOS | Cameroon | Musaffah > Croatia (In Ballast) | Tanker, Grey Still no commercial traffic.

12 June VLCC Update: still 39 trapped in Persian Gulf. 9 dark suspects: Vessel Name | IMO | Dark Since FRONT BEAULY | 9937103 | 18 Mar GEM NO.1 | 9735361 | 30 May DESH VIBHOR | 9610298 | 31 May DESH VAIBHAV | 9297498 | 05 Jun OLYMPIC TARGET | 9468853 | 05 Jun MONACO LOYALTY | 9312511 | 06 Jun DESTINY | 9177155 | 07 Jun GRAND LADY | 9406166 | 07 Jun TONEGAWA | 9802188 | 07 Jun

HORMUZ | 6 MIA VLCCs in the Strait - stealth transits suspects. Whoever has any *reliable* information of their whereabouts is welcome to join the VLCC Voyeurist Club in the comments. $Oil

A similar thread was picked up by Bloomberg: Oil Tankers Go Dark to Sneak More Barrels Through Hormuz bloomberg.com/news/articles/… And I don’t disagree. The ~2mbd referenced in this article is very much plausible - I see it through my traffic tracking too. Lets be generous, make it ~5mbd with small tankers and overnight runs gymnastics. But it is still a workaround which will NOT allow the restart of ~10mbd shut-in production - simple math doesn’t work. WHEN we see sustained traffic moving ~10mbd (so ~10 VLCCs per day) we can start talking about reopening. That’s why I parsed the list of all VLCCs in the Persian Gulf, when these ladies start disappearing from AIS we’ll know something is cooking. But so far they are all still there.

I think the idea there is that small ships belonging to Kuwait/UAE/Iraq NOCs shuttle through the Strait back and forth at night close to Oman coast with lights off. Since they go back and forth (FT estimates the avg number as 15 in total - both east-west and west-east) they do not change the vessel count much. and then S2S on VLCC or other large tankers in GOO. This FT article has some details x.com/ftenergy/statu…

$OIL TRUMP: US secretly moved 100M bbl out of Hormuz. MATH: ~50 VLCCs stealth-escaped Persian Gulf since early May FACT: 39 VLCCs still stuck in the Gulf TODAY SO: either we had ~90 VLCCs stuck in the Gulf in early May OR… Trump scored F in math again.

➡️ Transiting Tanker Details (June 8–15 Window): 1 | June 8 | PHOEBEII (SINCERE 02) | Guyana flag, Iran > Outbound | MR Oil Products Tanker, Sanctioned (Direct IRGC Circuit) 2 | June 8 | AL DAAYEN | Bahamas flag, Qatar > China | LNG Carrier, Commercial 3 | June 8 | GAZ GMS | Panama flag, Iran > Outbound | LPG Tanker, Sanctioned 4 | June 9 | OSTRIA (AYATOLLA RIZZ) | Botswana flag, Gulf > Oman (Broadcasted: NO BITCHES) | Chemical / Products Tanker, Sanctioned 5 | June 9 | OCEAN JEWEL | Panama flag, Gulf > Outbound (In Ballast) | Chemical / Products Tanker, Grey-Market 6 | June 9 | KIARA M | San Marino flag, Iraq > Oman | VLCC Crude Tanker, Shadow Fleet (2M Barrels) 7 | June 9 | AB CRINGE (AB VICTORY) | Palau flag, Iraq > Outbound (Broadcasted: DELETE GAME) | Chemical / Products Tanker, Grey-Market 8 | June 11 | VERNON | Guinea flag, Iran Shuttle | Aframax Crude, Sanctioned 9 | June 11 | ARNAB | Panama flag, Musaffah > Staged Outside | Product Tanker, Shadow Fleet

HORMUZ | Three tankers departed Musaffah industrial port (?) on June 10-11. VERNON (Suezmax, Guinea flag, OFAC sanctioned), GAZ GMS (LPG, Panama flag), ARNAB (Panama flag). Crossed Hormuz minding their own business. 9 visible transits this week.

I should have said market thinks Trump will TACO as always.

$OIL Second day of kinetic exchanges between US/Iran with Kuwait/Bahrain/Jordan as collateral damage. PGSA closed the Strait. BUT Oil price is ~$3 below the morning high. The market thinks Trump will save it?

@OilCfd @staunovo I can name by IMO 39 VLCCs, 11 Suezmaxes, 13 Aframaxes trapped in the Gulf. Assuming each is fully laden this is ~100mln bbl. Note: 11 VLCCs dark 72h+ - my stealth transit suspects. Majority pinged today.

Math is simple, ADCOP is 1.7mnpd, Oman is 0.8. We are seeing "reported" fixtures ex Fuj/sohar/Mina at 4/5Mnbpd, and those are the reported ones, there's more going off market that we find out weeks later. "Oil trapped inside": we are probably down to 40mb from 120mb at the onset

A similar thread was picked up by Bloomberg: Oil Tankers Go Dark to Sneak More Barrels Through Hormuz bloomberg.com/news/articles/… And I don’t disagree. The ~2mbd referenced in this article is very much plausible - I see it through my traffic tracking too. Lets be generous, make it ~5mbd with small tankers and overnight runs gymnastics. But it is still a workaround which will NOT allow the restart of ~10mbd shut-in production - simple math doesn’t work. WHEN we see sustained traffic moving ~10mbd (so ~10 VLCCs per day) we can start talking about reopening. That’s why I parsed the list of all VLCCs in the Persian Gulf, when these ladies start disappearing from AIS we’ll know something is cooking. But so far they are all still there.

@ALikhodedov @LVision_Trading Have you seen any indications that onshore storage in GCC is being emptied through this exercise or that they’ve been able to restart production? Seems like that is the real test for whether this matters for the overall oil deficit vs just changing timing / geography of draws.

HORMUZ | Qatari LNG seems to move in elegant bi-weekly batches: ▪️May 10 AL KHARAITIYAT ▪️May 12 MIHZEM ▪️May 25 FUWAIRIT, AL RAYYAN, LEBRETHAH, RASHEEDA ▪️June 8 AL DAAYEN…

As I understand, these two vessels are not “two more”, they were part of the coordinated May 25 batch exit, together with FUWAIRIT and AL RAYYAN. Pattern emerging: ~2-4 Qatari LNG vessels on ~2 week PGSA clearance cycles. Batch 1 ~May 10, Batch 2 May 25, Batch 3 likely around now?

Qatar quietly sent two more LNG shipments through Hormuz on dark tankers 🇶🇦🚢 They both reappeared in the last day -- one near Oman, the other racing past Sri Lanka So far, 11 LNG cargoes have left the Persian Gulf since the war began. That compares to 3/day before the war