BiotechInvest (MD PhD)

@RNAiAnalyst Hi Dirk, did you consider the 'revenge taxes' for Europeans (section 899 of the Big Beautifull Bill)? Might the payout of CVR's fall under this, with taxes possibly exceeding 50%? I have no experience with CVR's, but it makes me hesitant

So if you believe the safety of VERVE-102 is suitable for ASCVD population, then you could get a 4x return ($0.66 sunk capital for $3 payout) in 3 years. Where else do you get that in #biotech? $VERV

$VERV at $11.11 market attributes ~20%* likelihood of VERVE-102 progressing from p2 to p3 in ASCVD. Even if not studying drug individually, p2->3 progression of genetics-informed drugs is 50-60%. I therefore have added down here, +possibility of hostile offer. *(11.11-10.5)/3

@DeanPlatt90002 @arianawatchlist CEO & CFO should be fired directly by BoD for this huge PO @ 0.7 = smashing dilution = lost trust of all current shareholders. Seldom seem this kind of mismanagement 🤮

@arianawatchlist Any thoughts of $TNYA?

$MLGO is on the come up $FBGL should follow There’s a reason why I’m calling this the next one $WHLR $TNYA $JFIN watching

@GeneInvesting You do look at both for the total heart failure assesment, obviously

@GeneInvesting Indeed: NYHA class is purely functional, i.e. at what exercise intensity does the patient show dyspnoe, irrespective of NTproBNP.

🧵ATTR-CM will be my alpha as it’s been severely undervalued by the investment community. So much so that it makes me question my sanity. Look at the 4 main companies (YTD): $PFE: -10.3% ($6b CM rev in 24’) $BBIO: -31.9% (best ph.3 data) 🤔 $ALNY: +32.6% (worst drug) $NTLA: -50.1% (best drug) 🤔

@RNAiAnalyst @crisprtalk Wow! Did you make your 'starting' capital for your current portfolio with biotech investing e.g. early RNA-Tx? Would be an inspiring example for me and others if yes

@crisprtalk @VivekGRamaswamy Well, I own 2% of $mgx :)

.@VivekGRamaswamy on how to become rich, very rich today (4:50min mark): Get equity in out-of-favor #biotechs trading at cash (+ presumably below), keep investing/grow equity, survive until back en vogue. Exactly what I'm doing, esp on #CRISPR side of things. $ARKG youtube.com/watch?v=bEFVvL…

@Biotech2k1 @drrichjlaw @genengnews £117.789 million ($148.997 million) from Exscientia, the latter disclosed today in a regulatory filing. That’s 32% below the nearly $845 million reported by the companies at the end of the second quarter, which Recursion ended with $474.3 million while Exscientia reported $370.1M

@Biotech2k1 @Biotech2k1 @drrichjlaw was just reading this @genengnews, do you know where the 221M$ from EXAI went? Thx The combined company will also begin with about $576.644 million in cash and cash equivalents calculated as of September 30—$427.647 million reported by Recursion and...

My $EXAI stock at Merril ceases to exist. It is currently listed as a number lol. Give me my $RXRX shares!

@dineshahluwalia @Biotech2k1 @RecursionPharma Indeed, 6.5$, WTF. CFO transition? @RecursionChris

@Biotech2k1 @RecursionPharma Agreed & I would add poorly priced. $6.50 pricing after stock sells off 6.62% to $8.76 in anticipation of secondary. That’s an additional 25.6% discount. I’m being kind to think both CEO & CFO got blind sighted by bankers. How could they be this naive? ir.recursion.com/news-releases/…

That is 2 major blunders by @RecursionPharma management with first not live streaming download day and now doing a poorly timed secondary.

@yaireinhorn @AlexanderKalian Please please focus on biotech (appreciate your input a lot) and stop the warmongering

@AlexanderKalian We haven’t put into use even 20% of our military capabilities in the past 6 months. The Iranian jihadist regime underestimated us and they are going to find out just how big of a mistake they’ve just made!

Since many of my followers don’t really know what’s going on in the Middle East - I urge you to take a moment and to read one of the best and leading journalists in Israel - @Nadav_Eyal which writes about the roots of the conflict between Israel & Iran. Definitely worth a read!

@Biotech2k1 Benjamin Graham:“Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine”

His comment was valuation is the best long term tool, but it fails in short periods where rational behavior escapes the market. Chasing greed and FOMO is for suckers.

Value investing is about 2 key variabes. The first is the valuation of the company. The other is a margin of safety for unforeseen variables.

@AlbertVilella Thanks for sending the article. To the best of my knowledge Qiagen is Dutch, with it's headquarters based in Venlo, the Netherlands.

EPO revokes two more patents despite $ILMN Illumina's appeal. German company $QGEN Qiagen appeared as an opponent, juve-patent.com/cases/epo-revo…

@GarryPNolan Thanks for sharing your personal story. 2 family-related questions: 1) you state probably de novo but is the penetrance known? 2) in case you've kids: will they do presymptomatic testing #pathogenic MITF variant, and is there a n evidence-based surveillance scheme for carriers?

Trust your instincts. I recently had my whole genome sequenced because of the number of cancers I have had over the years. The doctors at Stanford wanted to see if there was anything obvious going on. My first melanoma was at age 33 on my shoulder. 7 since (arguing with the doctor's medical records vs my memory about whether it's 6 or 7), a whole bunch of basal cells, a squamous, and a renal cell kidney cancer (down to one kidney). We got the genetics results a couple of weeks ago, and I am heterozygous MITF E318K nature.com/articles/s4159… . It's a dominant autosomal cancer driver. Summary: puts me at risk for melanoma and kidney cancer-- so it all tracks with my history. Add in light skin, reddish hair, and Celtic heritage. Given my family history, it is likely a mutation that occurred only in me, as no one else in the family has the same issues. The biology of MITF is fascinating. Being in the field of cancer research helps me understand how to mitigate risk. So-- a public service announcement. Genetics drives a lot of cancer outcomes. If available-- get your genetics done and see your doctor if you have concerns. It does not go away if you ignore it. The recent melanoma I had (biopsy last Wednesday, diagnosis today) was because I had a sense that a "spot" on my arm was wrong. All good, a bit of snip-snip and it will be taken care of. Another scar-- who cares? I've been at this for 30 years. I'll be perfectly fine... I get checked 3 to 4 times a year. Trust your instincts with cancer. Save your own life. Be open to your friends who might have concerns. Help them feel comfortable getting themselves checked. Cancer caught early can be cancer cured.

@Biotech2k1 Yes please

Here is my public post for this week. I don't let people reply unless I follow them. That helps weed out the toxicity that can come from posting unpopular opinions on the market. If you want me to follow you, just reply here and I will.

@real_poobah @gbw42 Indeed, different C-suite, fresh commercial wind. Plus C-suite without ridiculous compensation, 25M/year each, WHEN FAILING GROWTH&TARGETS.

Nava's on here speaking truth to power. If I had a biotech investment consulting firm I'd definitely have him on the payroll. Also, hurricane1414 continues to bring the smoke over on the aseq discord channel. Ya'll should come over and talk: discord.gg/hZkytgK9

@ilzizzo @galenlittle Which company are you referring to? Optical genome mapping sounds like Bionano $BNGO?

@galenlittle Not big on the CEO but a 52 wk high $30.10. Just raised a bunch of cash that was dilutive to investors. Missed on earnings but had 14% revenue growth and has 312 Optical Genome Sequencers installed. $48M valuation. Possible to break even cash flow by 2025.

@BowTiedBiotech @BioBoyScout @GeneInvesting @SuperDuperDrugs Important issue in presymptomatic is incomplete penetrance and variable expression, i.e. not everybody will develop disease and those that will to a variable extent. Therefore long-term safety is key, and for the first phases, select well-defined genetic patient cohorts.

I agree here. It is a big jump from a pill statin to gene editing. 6mon SC is a no brainer. Nevertheless it is encouraging to gene editing begin to expand beyond ultra rare disease. Maybe the ultimate use case beyond rare is prodromal/presymptomatic. That obviously comes with ethical questions, but long term seems where we are headed.

@BowTiedBiotech @SuperDuperDrugs You do not want to permanently gene edit if a temporary alternative exists. You cannot reverse side-effects, nor control the long-term outcomes (i.e. cancer). There is plenty of science-supported literature warning about this. Should be only for serious, undruggable diseases.

@BertrandBio @NVanRenne 👍

@BiotechInvestNG @NVanRenne OK you win, they tag themselves as Belgo-Dutch on facebook. I will still call them Belgian like everyone though, and as I've done the past 10 y, just because it's simpler.

The top 10 largest 🇪🇺-listed bios in this end of 2023 come from 7 different countries, a reflect of the diversity in the region, but a burden to follow that fragmented space closely. $ARGX 🇧🇪 $GMAB 🇩🇰 $EVT $EVO 🇩🇪 $ALVO 🇮🇸 $ZEAL 🇩🇰 $CAMX 🇸🇪 $GLPG 🇧🇪 $BIOAB 🇸🇪 $INDV 🇬🇧 $BAVA 🇩🇰

@BertrandBio @NVanRenne Joint venture between Crucell (Leiden, NL) and Tibotec, by founder Onno vd Stolpe (Dutch). Enough about this I guess...

@BertrandBio @NVanRenne It was founded in 1999, dual structure with offices in Leiden (NL) and Mechelen (BE).