BitcoinHyperwave
425 posts
BREAKING: Trump has posted an image depicting Canada and Greenland as part of the United States
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@astronomer_zero Is the 10-week signal that was pointing towards $170K invalidated now?
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$BTC
86k hit. We're now in the middle of my high timeframe POI, I'm now fully long. Slow reversal process continues.
Aggressive drop overnight during New York session after price bouncing only 5% from our grey POI zone.
Losing grey means the market wants to reverse off our purple high timeframe POI zone instead, which indeed means the reversal process will take longer as mentioned last post.
So more patience required, not necessary a joy most likely for many of you.
But my promise remains a full and close guide through this trade, showcasing you the reality of why I choose a loose passive strategy for this slow reversal trade, and why that is the best ultimate path to money, rather than try to long every single POI with a tight stop or worse, get suckered at the top of every single pump off every single low timeframe POI because you were "waiting for a reclaim".
So I just used my entries ready for this high timeframe zone, and so I have increased my size from 0.75x to 1x (full size).
Invalidation of the slow reversal process is still the same, which is losing the purple zone.
A long trade, a slow reversal. And every lower timeframe and early call zone of mine that only gave a bounce of 2-5%.
This high timeframe reversal zone is the last stand, and will take more time as 97k hasn't been reached (only 93.5k), which is the bad news. The good news is that it offers a very low entry here we just added, and it allows me to showcase the full advantage of this type of trading strategy.
Enjoy.
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@BitcoinHyprwave @JoshMandell6 he said that its odd how eric trump is so optimistic about Q4, as if he knows something
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I had this vision of some news that maybe you can confirm x.com/i/spaces/1lPKq…
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@Simonsdad3 @JoshMandell6 What was said about Eric Trump? I joined late
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@JoshMandell6 I agree on the Eric trump thing. 100%. Weird how he talks about Q4 price
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@JoshMandell6 @t_wack669 @j_ceasar44 @PatriotWife72 @FullTimeBitcoin @LouisianaFree @apsk32 I'm trying to think 4th dimensionally
I may be insolvent now, but when this baby hits $444K my remaining calls will melt up and my net worth will be instantly transported to a positive value 🙏😬
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@t_wack669 @j_ceasar44 @PatriotWife72 @FullTimeBitcoin @LouisianaFree @apsk32 Its a Back to the Future reference
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Bitcoin price fractals based on the power law support and a 4-year cycle period show the potential price action of the current cycle.
Cycle tops:
8 Nov 2025 - $227,328 (2021 fractal)
16 Dec 2025 - $271,868 (2017 fractal)
4 Dec 2025 - $193,180 (2013 fractal)
Near-term lows:
Price could fall between $36,000 and $47,000 while staying aligned with previous cycles.
**I don't expect to see price move below $50,000 without a significant equity market correction**
These are references, not predictions. They help us assess probabilities and set realistic expectations based on past data.
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In June I wrote an article demonstrating how you could use bitcoin's power law support and a decaying exponential fit of the price/support ratio to create forecast fractals.
I'm not in love with the decaying exponential price/support fit.
My favorite metric is the 'years ahead' measure that I discuss frequently. Simply put, this tells you how long it will be before the power law support 'forces' prices upwards.
While revisiting the fractal concept, I realized that I could use the 'time ahead' metric to create future price fractals, without using the price/support fit at all.
In this plot, I grab three 4-year segments and project them forward in time, normalized by the 'years ahead' measure. You can treat these as possible futures, assuming the 4-year cycle continues.
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In the comments below I've added a few of my related works.
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@astronomer_zero Stopping out as soon as it makes a new low, or giving it a bit of room?
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$BTC
Range low area reached. I added here at 99k as promised
You know the plan, and you know my conviction. I doubled up my long position size here. Reasons:
✅We reached range low
✅We reached just under the wick
✅We reached just under 100k
And last but not least, we are seeing calls for 80k and 70k thrown around everywhere, literally everywhere. All whilst no one is calling for a bottom, and whilst we are taking liquidity below the wick we have created weeks ago. That's the exact idea of how a range should behave at range low, and to me, peak bottom behavior.
Upon reaching range low, it's time to double up the long, and so that is what I did.
If we make another leg lower, I am out of the trade for a while and I am looking to reevaluate. But for not. I am just following the plan.
Astronomer@astronomer_zero
$BTC 105k likely will not hold. What to do next? I am planning to make a stubborn move here. So, we wanted 105k to hold and price to reverse there. I expected the reaction to lead us higher, but this time, I was wrong. Left the trade some room to breathe but indeed, it is going deeper regardless. When the idea is wrong like this, there are two options. The most logical option is: to exit the trade, and let price go for the next area of liquidity, which is the wick at 101k. But given my conviction that this range will hold and eventually break to the upside; and knowing that I may have stepped into this long a bit early; and finally, because I’m simply exhausted by seeing nearly every post met with calls for lower while price only heads slightly lower each time, I’m going to do something stubborn. And that is to indeed plan to double up my long position as mentioned last post. And I will do that, once 101k area is reached, which, if executed successfully, will be a 4% risk of my entire crypto net worth, which is double from what I usually take. This area of 101k is the lowest most extreme area price is allowed to trade for our range idea to remain valid. If after doubling up, it fails, then I am truly wrong and I will just take the large risk and take a big loss. Is this stubborn? Yes. Is it recommended to trade along? Probably not. But since I called this range ages ago, and since we are still trading inside it, I think I can allow myself to make this move. And I just can't let this one go given our prior analysis, the endless amount of top callers on top, and the excessive caution we see on each and every pullback out there, both in the books as on the socials. That's not top behavior at all, that's a scared, sidelined audience of participants. I want to counteract that. And albeit with bigger risk, it's all built on the backbone of this range which we are still trading in. Hope it works out. Just sharing what I do. Some serious conviction on the table now. Hope that sheds a light on some of your doubts you may have out there of where $BTC leads crypto next.
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@JoshMandell6 @tomyoungjr To play devils advocate, how many timelines are there where BTC hits $84k on Pi day, but doesn't succeed in running the tables to $444K?
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@tomyoungjr It's so cool that you remember where you were on that Pi Day!
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@JoshMandell6 I made reservations at the same restaurant on November 6th that I was at on March 14th.
I will order the same thing.
Just in case.
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@goshenk1 @JoshMandell6 @alimaula420 @TheMatrixDr @SheBitcoins @jpmayall I was thinking the 30% pullback would be occurring from the $140-$200K level though
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@BitcoinHyprwave @JoshMandell6 @alimaula420 @TheMatrixDr @SheBitcoins @jpmayall So far looking pretty accurate
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Based on Murray Rudd’s supply and demand study, Bitcoin is expected to reach around $444K by June 2026, $1M in early 2027, and $5M by 2031. 🤯
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@JoshMandell6 How long do you suspect the price will stay above $300-$400k?
Hours/days/weeks+?
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If you hold a call option that extends past the date of an expected peak, it essentially acts as if you also own the put option.
Q: "How's that, Josh?"
A: Here's the explanation.
A call option becomes equivalent to a put option when fully hedged because the hedge (e.g., shorting the underlying asset) offsets the call's directional exposure, mimicking the payoff of a put. This occurs due to put-call parity, where a hedged call's risk profile aligns with a put's, as both can be structured to yield similar outcomes at expiration.
Ariana@aarianapearce
@oneisenough3 @JoshMandell6 @zaripov18 Puts won’t be cheap, IV will explode. Imagine Friday 200K → Saturday 444K → Monday sub-200K scenario. Wouldn’t even surprise me anymore. Story of my life
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@JoshMandell6 Coach, could I ask what your plan is for your Jan 475 GLD calls? Rolling them forward?
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When people would call the Government desk to ask why the market was surging, "more buyers than sellers" was the reply we gave when we knew something but couldn't tell you.
It also usually implied that you ain't seen nothing yet.
zerohedge@zerohedge
BESSENT ON SURGE IN GOLD PRICE: MORE BUYERS THAN SELLERS
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@chundygunderson @JoshMandell6 @IIICapital What if both our dreams come true this month...
x.com/JoshMandell6/s…
Josh Man@JoshMandell6
@luizcombatmege It's going to get crazier and yes
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Would you believe me that this is somehow one of the most hated stocks in America?
Fiat brain.
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@JoshMandell6 @IIICapital I had a crazy dream last night.
I dreamt it was first thing in the morning and I opened my Tradingview to find BTC down $59k, trading at $60k. I was in a daze.
Something wicked this way comes?
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Joe, there is a gigantic amount of remaining stock authorized under prospectus and a giant short seller who knows that all of that stock is going to be available for sale when the black swan arrives (Q day). They are just waiting for the liquidation. The rebound from wherever will lead us to $444,000
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@JoshMandell6 @saylor Where's the steal if it'd be trading at a 8x+ multiple?
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Eleven months ago, we elected the nation's first Bitcoin President and @Saylor boasted access to the backrooms of the White House.
This week, Bitcoin hit an All Time High while MSBR is only a modest 65% rally away from its ATH. (see what I did there?)
I could envision an announcement by the Trump administration on the anniversary of his election, one month from now, that they are taking a large stake in Strategy, now called MSTrump. Suddenly, an 8.6x multiple emerges out of the ashes and Strategy gobbles up all the bitcoin.
The art of the steal.
Joe Burnett, MSBA@IIICapital
On May 11, 2022 $MSTR was trading at a fully diluted mNAV of 0.7. Since then the stock is up 1,500% while bitcoin is up 300%. As expected, buying intelligently leveraged bitcoin exposure at a discount was a good bet if you were optimistic on BTC over the coming years.
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@BitcoinHyprwave @JoshMandell6 He mentioned in a previous post , same odds as hitting a lottery !!
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BitcoinHyperwave retweetet
@JoshMandell6 Is Brazil dumping gold likely still going to become a big trigger event?
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