BobtheBuildooor

Playing narratives correctly in crypto will get you rich. But to do this, you must first understand the natural cycle of narratives. In this thread, I will explore these cycles and why they happen. Let's do it. 🧵👇

Crypto has drastically effected my mental health But not in the way I always assumed it would. If I could go back in time, here's what I would do differently:

Any ETH bulls here? ETH sentiment turns super-bearish for the fourth time this year. Realization kicked in that "Ultrasound money" narrative is dead, as ETH revenue and burning are down. Activity on the L1 needs to increase, but instead, it's being outsourced to L2s without clear benefits to ETH in the community's eyes. @dcinvestor wants to move back to ETH as programmable money - the only narrative that matters. It's based on ETH as pristine collateral to which revenue and burn metrics don't matter that much. @ChainLinkGod counters that stablecoins have proven to be a more effective and widely adopted version of programmable money than ETH. The 'digital oil' narrative, too, for ETH is weakening as more Layer 2 solutions use their native tokens for gas. Even builders are concerned. @0xdoug, founder of @ambient_finance, humorously but accurately compares Ethereum's rollup-centric plan to a pilot mid-flight discovering the runway is too short but insisting it'll be fine—despite all evidence to the contrary. Oh, and the pilot is drunk. ------ All is lost? @llamaonthebrink thinks valuing ETH needs social awareness, understanding the industry's mission, appreciating network effects, skepticism of fiat money, and belief in innovative internet-native societies. ETH is unlike anything seen before, making it hard to fit into traditional narratives like "digital oil" or "tech equity." ETH's value lies in its potential to build an internet-native, sovereign economy without intermediaries or legacy systems. It requires visionary thinking, understanding network effects, and recognizing possibilities not yet realized. ETH will define its own future, beyond what current frameworks can predict. One could argue it's too hard for boomers and institutions to digest. ---- One of the visionary examples are offered by @mikeneuder His bullish case rest on Ethereum offering a decentralized, self-custodied, permissionless system, allowing global transmission of value that can't be seized or censored. This is the core of its long-term value proposition. Decentralization isn’t just a nice-to-have, it’s critical. In a world where governments and corporations can coerce centralized systems, Ethereum's neutral, censorship-resistant design makes it a unique digital property rights system. BTC is censorship-resistant, but as block rewards shrink, Bitcoin will rely on transaction fees for miner incentives, which may not ensure long-term security. This is what notable Ethereum Foundation researchers like @drakefjustin has mentioned in the past. Plus, unlike Ethereum’s scalable rollup roadmap, Bitcoin’s static development makes it harder to adapt. In the short term, @adamscochran argues that Based Rollups, compared to the current L2 design, can directly impact the monetization of ETH by fundamentally changing incentive structures. This shift could potentially increase long-term demand for ETH by 100x ----- After the PoS transition and ETH burn switch, ETH felt like it had everything going great for it. But Ethereum's narrative is currently in limbo as ETH price struggles to pick up. Personally, it's been fascinating to see community discussions to redefine the narrative. I connect with the explanation by @llamaonthebrink that ETH requires more social awareness and deep understanding of our industry's mission to appreciate what Ethereum has to offer. But industry as a whole often drifts away from the mission when greed and speculation blinds our minds. Only for it to come back when times get harder. We also see more active discussions among the Ethereum Foundation, L2 builders, and even Vitalik is engaging more with the community. It's a clear sign of a growing urgency to get back on track. But as @0xdoug asks, “Are you sure the runway is long enough for this jet?” I remain bullish (bag bias, if you will).

1/ Is BTC a risk-on or risk-off asset? Blackrock hears this question more than any other. Their latest research shows Bitcoin is indeed risky but not a "risk-on" asset. Here's the breakdown: 🧵

Top Alts I am keeping an eye on @Uniswap- Speculative but a potential fee switch could bring more demand to $UNI as well. @bunni_xyz- Beta play for Uni v4. Shapeshifting liquidity could attract LPs with more customization and yield. (Note: I hold the token) @aave- One of the best performing old DeFi projects right now. Fee switch has been a strong catalyst. @bananagun- Strong tokenomics. Revenue share with holders along with token burns @dinero_xyz- If we see ETH outperform again this would be my main beta play for it. Native ETH LST baseplate for various protocols @SankoGameCorp- Good team. Great culture and developing an ecosystem on top of Arbitrum Orbit. @pendle_fi - Even though the hype has cooled down, Pendle is still the main yield trading protocol that I am keeping an eye on. @LiquityProtocol- V2 launch could be a big step forward for the protocol. @opentensor- One of the main market leaders in the AI narrative. Something to keep watching. @SuiNetwork- Wary about the unlocks but there could be some ecosystem opportunities if the stars align.

VWAPs are beautiful (come at me). They're also one of my fav. tools to use (specifically time-based & anchored) - as such, I've written about them quite a bit. a compilation of everything VWAP (starting from the basics) so you can be a VWAP maxi too 🧵

THE BULLRUN THAT NEVER IS This might be one of my most important posts to date. Many might miss the 'Bullrun'. Will you? Many people here think very linearly, in terms of bear or bull markets—one-dimensional; prices go up or down. For a long time, this didn't sit right with me (revisit exhibit a in the first reply). Today, I’ve put together a new conceptual model that I believe: a) offers a fresh perspective on cycles, b) helps us better contextualize our current situation, and c) is actionable. The dimensions: Liquidity in system | crypto is harder to access, less mature in terms of efficiency, onramping, stablecoins, cex accessibility, etc. compared to tradfi. Especially now, with TradFi guardrails for BTC and ETH that don't trickle down, the game has changed. Scarcity of tokens | supply is a major factor in crypto; it determines the denominator over which accessible liquidity must be spread. This differs from TradFi, where the number of tokens is naturally limited, often requiring an IPO rather than hearing a word on a Twitter Space and rushing to Pumpfun. According to my theory, we spiked from low liquidity and low supply to high liquidity and low supply ("Bull's Bonanza") in 2021. After that, we imploded, ending up in "The Bears Barren" in 2022. A place that many call bear market, with low supply and low liquidity. What is akin to both TBB and BB, is that due to low supply tokens move in unison (up and down).The market moves, not necessarily narratives (although they obviously exist, but they generally last a lot longer than our current 15-minute meta's). Slowly healing from the damage FTX and the unwinding of FTX had one to the ecosystem, liquidity slightly, slighty increased, but supply of tokens increased more. Easy prey left the game, leaving experienced (and malevolent) actors to extract more and more with their extraction infrastructure ramped up and in place. From 2023 onwards we moved into "Arena of Attrition", a place where we can't benefit from higher liquidity because token supply grows exponentially. Survival of the fittest really; the most skilled (or the ones with the best connections/most insider information) win. The others are holding the bag. We often attribute token growth to Pumpfun and Solana shitcoins in general which is obviously true, but it's not limited to that. It's also the sheer number of useless L1's, L2's, roll-ups, AI protocols, bridges, etc. Apparently we needs forks of everything, and we definitely need more L2's without organic volume funded by VC's. It's something I wrote about in exhibit b and c. From my experience, everytime we go wide in crypto, a phase follows where we go narrow. A flight to quality, whether in alts or memes. With increasing liquidity, my expectations for coming 6-18 months is that we enter the Realm of Rotation. We will profit somewhat from that increased liquidity, but only on selected narratives and plays. Most holders will remain stuck holding the bag with their stagnant or dry-bleeding tokens into eternity, looking back after BTC roundtripped to 6 figs and back while thinking; Did I just miss it? We won't get that Bull's Bonanza like the one everyone associates with a "bullrun" after 2021. That's impossible, with the matured skills of token launchers (either your favourite serial rugger on PF or the VC that tries to extract liquidity from yet another meta). But, how to play the Realm of Rotation? I'll delve into that in my next post.

My 10 Keys: (that may help you too) 1. I dissociated the money from the craft. I started training. I treat it as a sport. 2. Visualize. I started to use my sports psychology. Visualize success. More importantly- visualize calamity. See yourself thrive in that environment

A brutal wake-up call for anyone who went bullish on alts after BTC's new ATH in March. I, too, was too bullish, expecting the usual shift from BTC to ETH, followed by a pump in alts. Didn't play out. ETH lagged, and most alts had short rallies only to crash hard. My degen playbook was rather conservative, with a focus on staking L1 tokens as 'productive assets' - you can stake and use them to farm their ecosystem airdrop tokens. The strategy was to sell airdrops back to L1 tokens which should've driven up L1 coin prices (like USD printing boost major stock prices). I believed $ETH would outperform due to its status as the most productive asset in crypto, particularly because of high-yield airdrops via restaking. Indeed, millions of dollars were issued in airdrop tokens like ETHFI and REZ, with EIGEN and other LRT governance tokens set to launch soon. Despite these high-yield opportunities, ETH failed to generate FOMO. Everyone was likely already overexposed, having loaded up on ETH and BTC during the bear market. Still, everyone who actively farmed with ETH are probably doing much better than the ETH spot would indicate. And more $$ is coming with $EIGEN unlock. No big regrets here. ------- $SOL eco performed well initially with $JTO and $JUP. Their successes did boost $SOL price as FOMO kicked in. Then the $W airdrop did okay, but each subsequent airdrop saw a sharp decline in rewards ($TNSR, $PRCL, $DRIFT) with $CLOUD being the most disappointing (relative to expectations). Right now, Solana is a memecoin playground, but innovative DePin and DeFi protocols are waiting for their moment when memecoin fever dies down. -------- Bitcoin's ecosystem, boosted by BRC20s and NFTs, initially did well— we got multiple airdrops just by holding 'blue-chip' NFTs. But then Runes launched, and everything nosedived. I believe Runes will bounce back once the infrastructure, especially DEXes gets improved. --------- Other L1/L2 ecosystems fared much worse. • Injective dApps lacked quality, and the airdrops were negligible. • Starknet's $STRK airdrop flopped, failing to spark a "wealth effect" in the ecosystem. Despite high DeFi Spring rewards, protocol airdrops were a letdown. • SEI did well with NFTs initially, but DeFi dApps and airdrops felt short. • SUI's ecosystem has high-quality dApps but they aren't generous with airdrops and SUI's unlocks weigh heavily on price. • The Cosmos ecosystem is bogged down by infighting, airdrops have dried up, and they must bounce back from recent exploits. • Arweave's community expected higher allocation of $AO for $AR holding but got just 36% -------- What's next? • Stacks postponed the Nakamoto upgrade to late August, and hopefully multiple airdrops and faster block times will create some FOMO. • Still waiting for $EIGEN trading launch with 2nd airdrop and Swell, Kelp, Puffer token launches. • Multiple Eigenlayer AVSs are building and gearing for token launches (hopefully with generous airdrops to restakers). • Symbiotic and Karak are challenging Eigenlayer and might try to front-run EIGEN launch if market conditions improve. • Fantom migration to Sonic will test if "rebranding" with a new ticker can bring excitement to the "old" token • Will DeFi OG tokens bounce back when/if memecoin mania fades and degens tire of low-float, high-FDV tokens? ------- Ultimately, these internal catalysts depend on favorable macro conditions and ETF flows—our casinos just aren't enticing enough to attract a new wave of retail degens. But in case the market rebounds, the DeFi degen's playbook will need to be reevaluated with the focus on the most innovative ecosystems that continue to build and reward users generously. Which ecosystems are you betting on?

20 best alpha posts I discovered this month 🧵

People will shill you empty promises but won't teach you how to actually trade. This guide will teach you how to find the best setups and hit the next winner. 🧵

No excuses. You had weeks to accumulate. Don't be lazy and organized your watchlist. Here are 10 upcoming projects below 1k followers you should be keeping 👀 on.🧵👇🏼

I don't know what happens next. but that's the thing; I've never known. I'll never claim to know one thing is certain, though: this market only just recently became interesting again for the first time in like 4 weeks. I'm locked in.

No need to research everything when there are pros who curate for you. Here are my top 10 Notion boards to fast track your alpha. 🧵

- the bid/ask spread is the price impatient traders pay for immediacy. - uninformed traders lose simply because they trade. if you are an uninformed trader and do not want to lose, you should minimize your trading. that's bars. excerpt from Trading and Exchanges: Market Microstructure for Practitioners

95% of traders won't make it. Learn how to avoid being one of them. 🧵

Crypto Twitter: How to Grow and Monetize Your Audience • My journey from 300 to 100k followers • Tips to growing your audience • Strategies for audience growth • Monetization models & pricing • How to do a sale pitch on X Read it here: ignasdefi.com/p/crypto-twitt…

At point A, all you can think about is selling. By point B, all you can think about is buying, maybe we'll get back to point A? Back the truck up. At point C all you want to do is sell, why can't we go back to point B? Then you arrive at point D, at which point you're a confident buyer again. Finally, you come to point E. At point B, you dreamed of being back here. In practice, all you can think about is selling here. Good buying opportunities are obvious in hindsight ,but scarcely feel like them at the time. Then, the cycle repeats - and you go through the whole thing all over again. 🥴

Thank you for 25k. some rough seas were navigated in my personal life these past two months (not trading or market related). I am grateful for the obstacles that were thrown my way which provided me with the opportunities to continue to learn and grow as a person. will continue to share some nuggets (aside from thoughts on the market + some threads on volume + value based trading). appreciate all the support & special thanks to all of my friends here. may you continue to slay the dragons that no one knows about.

your narrative for why price is moving the way it is will never be timely. what I mean, using Germany BTC FUD as an example: 2 paths. 1) “Germany is still selling. WHY IS PRICE GOING UP?” 2) Germany is done selling. WHY IS PRICE STILL GOING DOWN?!” same story every time.

So let’s assume we’ve got a while to go before the bull market resumes. What are some of the scenarios and what can you do to prepare for these outcomes? I’ve been through 3 full cycles and this is the culmination of my experience 🧵 👇