Braudel Marx
5.8K posts
Braudel Marx
@BraudelMarx
Beyond the Waste Land: Geopolitics, Macroeconomics and Theory
Beigetreten Haziran 2020
1.2K Folgt1.8K Follower
There is no ceasefire violation. The US Navy is sailing peacefully through an international waterway
Disclose.tv@disclosetv
JUST IN - Iran's IRGC says "Any military vessels that, under any pretext or excuse, intend to approach the Strait of Hormuz will be considered as violating the ceasefire and will be dealt with harshly and decisively" — Tasnim
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@witte_sergei @captive_dreamer Mearsheimer's point is that instead of the US ruthlessly advancing their own interests, the master / slave dialectic has been turned on its head, and the behemoth US ruthlessly advances the interests of tiny Israel--to the strong detriment of US national interests.
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@captive_dreamer I like mearsheimer but it’s incongruent that his entire theoretical framing is “geopolitics is anarchy and states advance their interests ruthlessly” only for him to then complain about the Israelis.
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Not a coincidence this speech is being made at the "Arab Center" in Washington DC
COMBATE |🇵🇷@upholdreality
Prof. Mearsheimer: "If we had Nuremberg-like trials, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, and their principal lieutenants would be hanged."
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Ok next strategic step: The US military should help Saudi Arabia quickly build a new 30M bpd East-West pipeline. That’s more than enough to cover all the oil that passes the Strait of Hormuz. Let Iran know that if they don’t surrender, we’ll fill up the strait with sand and they’ll be paying pipeline tolls to Saudi Arabia for the rest of history. Should’ve been done 47 years ago, but the next best time is now. Building such a pipeline would cost less than a week of this war.
Polymarket@Polymarket
BREAKING: Saudi Arabia says its East-West pipeline has been restored to full capacity, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
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@zerohedge The Iranian President's words are worth about as much as Bernie Sander's are in the US...
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@DlugajJuly @angeloinchina Any US attempt at enforcing a blockade is an of war and Iran will attack the offending US naval forces with missiles and drones, forcing the Americans back a thousand metres from the Strait of Hormuz.
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China can source that oil elsewhere, but China is Iran's biggest buyer — if they can't sell anymore, that's an existential issue for Tehran.
The deeper problem is Tehran's own miscalculation.
A sustained campaign pushing toward financial system stress would have transferred the endgame entirely to Iran's hands.
Instead they accepted a pause that the US is now converting back into dominance — fully in line with its objective to use this break to further destabilization inside Iran. A lack of oil revenue fits this perfectly.
The question now is whether Iran's leadership has the will to resume fighting to get this noose off its neck — or whether it will continue talking while being strangled.
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The US Navy was forced by Iranian anti-ship drones and missiles to camp a thousand kilometres away from the Strait of Hormuz. If the US attacks Pakistani, Indian or Chinese shipping, those nations will have every right and duty to fire on and sink any US vessels perpetrating acts of war against their shipping. And so how can the US Navy conduct an illegal blockade while hiding 1000k from the shoreline?
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The @POTUS is changing tactics with a forthcoming blockade of the Perisan Gulf/Strait of Hormuz.
He notes, "All Being Allowed to Go In, All Being Allowed to Go Out." He also mentioned that there could be Iranian mines but there is no firm intelligence that Iran has laid any in the Strait.
President Trump has directed the Navy to interdict all ships that have paid a toll to Iran. That will be difficult to determine as Iran has done all it can to mask and hide any toll from potential sanctions, i.e. the use of crypto currency.
Yesterday, two destroyers - Peterson and Murphy - ran the Strait as the first Freedom of Navigation test of the International channel.
The Iranian policy to close the international Strait is in violation of the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea as it prohibits the right of Transit Passage (Art 37).
A blockade of the Persian Gulf by the United States would also be a violation of UNCLOS, but the following should be noted.
1️⃣Both Iran and the US are not signatories to UNCLOS, but US policy is to abide by UNCLOS except for deep sea mining.
2️⃣UNCLOS, like all maritime law, is not always clear or black & white in all matters.
3️⃣UNCLOS also assumes a state of peace and while war has not been declared, there is a conflict between US and Israel against Iran. UNCLOS makes no mention of blockades.
4️⃣ A blockade could lead to potential confrontation between ships registered under national flags with naval forces in the area - i.e., Pakistan, India and China.
5️⃣ Like many things, this is a statement by President Trump and it does not indicate a firm plan or course of action. We will have to wait and see what transpired with @CENTCOM and @US5thFleet actions.
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@Baddoorz @willchamberlain ...and Iran can launch 20 cheap drones at this pipeline's pumping stations a month or so before it comes on line.
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@willchamberlain And Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar can build pipelines through Saudi and Emirates to export their oil.
The Iranians can’t
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The Emiratis and the Saudis can bypass the Straits of Hormuz to sell their oil
The Iranians can’t.
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@SociopathChic @zerosum24 Bullshit, the US will not dare blockade Chinese vessels and in any case China has plenty of oil in storage, and Russia can easily make up for any shortfalls.
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@zerosum24 China gets 80% of Iran’s oil. Blockade will apply tremendous pressure on China. China will then apply tremendous pressure on Iran.
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@mercoglianos The Houthis should respond by blockading the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and Trump can continue retardmaxxing by double blockading that chokepoint as well.
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This is a change of tactics.
Not sure why a blockade would be directed against "all ships" and not just Iranian ships or those that loaded or unloaded in Iranian ports.
Disclose.tv@disclosetv
JUST IN - Trump orders the U.S. Navy to blockade the Strait of Hormuz to "any and all ships trying to enter, or leave." Also instructing the U.S. Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in international waters that has paid a toll to Iran: "No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas."
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@Matt_Bracken48 It's like a kid running onto an NBA court during halftime and clanking a 3-pointer and then bragging about how he's about to drop 30 on OKC!
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This is such a bullshit take. Two destroyers zoomed in and right back out during a safe window while Vance was in Pakistan negotiating during a ceasefire.
Sadie@Sadie_NC
The US Navy just flexed hard. Warships powered straight through the Strait of Hormuz like it was nothing. Iran swore they’d shut it down and block ships. America’s answer? We don’t ask permission. We sail. This is what real strength and freedom of navigation look like. No hesitation. No fear. Just pure American resolve.
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@dholzric @barnes_law They've already rebuilt much of it, including several of the bridges
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@BraudelMarx @barnes_law Irans rail network is also knocked out
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Not a viable option to achieve the objective.
The Spectator Index@spectatorindex
BREAKING: Trump shares article suggesting he has the option of enforcing a naval blockade on Iran
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🚨🇺🇸🚢Several U.S. navy ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, U.S. official says
🚨🇺🇸🚢The move was not coordinated with Iran. It's the first time this happens since the beginning of the war
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@FistedFoucault Otherwise they will be forced to burn the coal
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@marriedmn Mine tried that but I just flipped her over and used the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait
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My wife had closed the Strait of Hormuz for one week, after I threatened to get the fuel from venezuela, she opened it quickly.
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@DanielLDavis1 Trump always makes these butch tough-guy statements right before he chickens out. Apparently the US has agreed to unfreeze an estimated $95bn to $140bn in Iranian funds held abroad. Trump is only dangerous when he starts talking about peace and living together with his opponent.
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President Trump today issued what amounts to an ultimatum, again, saying that if Iran does not comply with vice president Vance‘s terms in Islamabad on Saturday, that he will “decimate” Iran again.
“We will know in about 24 hours,” the president told the New York Post.
Yet Iranian negotiators are saying if they don’t get sanctions relief, and if Israel does not engage a cease-fire in Lebanon, they won’t even have the negotiations.
It is a high stakes gamble, by both sides, and we appear to be getting further from peace, not closer to it.
But everybody in America needs to understand this: there is no military path to force open HORMUZ. If there was such a path, we would already have done it. It doesn’t matter if we get the entire navy of all NATO countries or try it ourselves, it can’t be done, because the capacity of the Iranian side to close the straight can’t be stopped by mere ships.
We seem to be setting ourselves up for a no-win situation, that will guarantee the failure of diplomatic talks, and leave us only with the military tool, which will also fail.
Not the best to start a weekend I could’ve imagined…
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@ajamubaraka So if the US Navy is impotent to open the strait, do you really think a bunch of clown-show NATO navies are going to change the balance of power? Here's a hint, the Europeans will only get involved once hostilities are over AND they are invited by Iran to help.
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There should be two responses to this. 1) Iran should immediately withdraw their delegation to the talks in Pakistan, and 2) Russia and China, China especially cannot sit this one out, and should not force Iran to negotiate away its assertion of national sovereignty over Straits
WORLD NEWS@_MAGA_NEWS_
🚨 ALERT: In a stunning development, NATO has agreed to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte indicate that a coalition of around 22 countries (mostly NATO members, plus allies) is coordinating to ensure free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
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@pati_marins64 Iran is obviously trolling and are well aware that no captain want to go anywhere near a sea mine. This gives Iran an excuse to keep the strait closed until further notice. I seriously doubt they have laid even one mine out there.
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A few days ago, an Iranian embassy (I don’t remember which one) posted claiming that Iran could not reopen the Strait because it had “lost the key.”
The worst part is that Iran itself admitted it really lost the key, it no longer knows exactly where the mines it placed are located, and that’s why it won’t reopen the Strait right now.
Obviously, all the mines are mapped. Iran simply doesn’t trust the US and refuses to take any step before receiving concrete concessions.
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Luttwak was a brilliant strategist, and I will never stop appreciating his ideas on the paradoxical nature of military strategy. For some time, however, he has become totally obsessed with the idea that Europeans must fight for Israel. He never states this explicitly, but his position suggests something like a general reparations owed to Israel because of the Holocaust.
Thomas Herzl did create such a "social contract" with Europe in The Jewish State: "We should as a neutral State remain in contact with all Europe, which would have to guarantee our existence." Luttwak appears to be still demanding that Europe honour this one‑sided deal.
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What good did that do us? If the US cannot reopen Hormuz, what makes you think the British can? The famous British military prowess? 😆
Edward N Luttwak@ELuttwak
The British, French, Italian & Spanish navies have aircraft carriers & many other warships. But none but the British arrived to fight the Houthi pirates who diverted traffic from the Suez Canal & Mediterranean ports to the much longer Cape route. They will not act in the Gulf.
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Yes. The US tried to weasel out of the original agreement. There was zero ambiguity. I believe the New York Times confirmed that Lebanon was included in the original ceasefire deal. Only a few hours later, after Netanyahu begged Trump to allow him to continue his bloodlust against Lebanese civilians, the US tried to play the wise‑guys and claim the Lebanese ceasefire was never part of the deal. Then Iran threatened to blow up the negotiations over this point. At that moment, the US caved from its weasel position and accepted the original deal.
This issue is crucial for both sides. My argument is that Iran now has the psychopaths Trump and especially Netanyahu in a "straitjacket." Going forward, once commodities start flowing again through the strait, Iran can credibly threaten to shut it down if Israel launches even the smallest attack against its resistance neighbors: Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and obviously Iran. I am not sure whether Gaza will be included in this arrangement.
This dynamic will force Israel to become a "normal" nation and stop its incessant war of one against all. Part of this process will require an Israeli withdrawal from occupied Lebanon, a situation that has a few reverse parallels to Russia and Ukraine.
Another issue is that Netanyahu's criminal trial is apparently set to restart on Sunday, and he needs a state of war to shut it down. He might launch an attack against Gaza since he is now blocked from massacring the Lebanese.
The release of Iran's frozen funds is also important because many people remain in denial that the US has suffered a strategic defeat. Trump always railed against Obama and Biden when they allowed Iran to reclaim its funds. I am looking forward to the New‑MAGA descriptions of 15th‑dimensional chess on Trump sending $6 billion to Iran!
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@BraudelMarx @DanielLDavis1 Is it actually "caving" to halt an action that looks at least partly aimed at derailing Iran-US negotiations?
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President Trump doesn’t seem to realize that in fact, Iran DOES have substantial leverage, and are not going to surrender in Islamabad.
And again threatening their nation with death, as a population, will guarantee they are not going to submit.
President Trump continues to undermine his own interest, and to harm those of the country he is supposed to protect. This will not end well…
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