John J. Parman

@KelseyTuoc The Marina is bay fill, subject to liquefaction, as happened in 1989. Not sure this is possible, the Safeway monster notwithstanding. Desirability as family housing is a separate question. I have doubts.

This is, somehow, meant to be an anti-Sherrill argument, but even when trying to pretend affordability would be bad they make the upzoned city look unfathomably cool. We could have this. You could afford to own a home and start a family. It'd be amazing.

@BraudelMarx @DanielLDavis1 The press here speculated that Netanyahu wanted to scuttle the ceasefire and the negotiations. Distraction from his personal problems mirrors an argument frequently made about Trump's launching the attack. I'm skeptical of both.

Yes. The US tried to weasel out of the original agreement. There was zero ambiguity. I believe the New York Times confirmed that Lebanon was included in the original ceasefire deal. Only a few hours later, after Netanyahu begged Trump to allow him to continue his bloodlust against Lebanese civilians, the US tried to play the wise‑guys and claim the Lebanese ceasefire was never part of the deal. Then Iran threatened to blow up the negotiations over this point. At that moment, the US caved from its weasel position and accepted the original deal. This issue is crucial for both sides. My argument is that Iran now has the psychopaths Trump and especially Netanyahu in a "straitjacket." Going forward, once commodities start flowing again through the strait, Iran can credibly threaten to shut it down if Israel launches even the smallest attack against its resistance neighbors: Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and obviously Iran. I am not sure whether Gaza will be included in this arrangement. This dynamic will force Israel to become a "normal" nation and stop its incessant war of one against all. Part of this process will require an Israeli withdrawal from occupied Lebanon, a situation that has a few reverse parallels to Russia and Ukraine. Another issue is that Netanyahu's criminal trial is apparently set to restart on Sunday, and he needs a state of war to shut it down. He might launch an attack against Gaza since he is now blocked from massacring the Lebanese. The release of Iran's frozen funds is also important because many people remain in denial that the US has suffered a strategic defeat. Trump always railed against Obama and Biden when they allowed Iran to reclaim its funds. I am looking forward to the New‑MAGA descriptions of 15th‑dimensional chess on Trump sending $6 billion to Iran!

President Trump doesn’t seem to realize that in fact, Iran DOES have substantial leverage, and are not going to surrender in Islamabad. And again threatening their nation with death, as a population, will guarantee they are not going to submit. President Trump continues to undermine his own interest, and to harm those of the country he is supposed to protect. This will not end well…

Update to an important paper.

@BraudelMarx @DanielLDavis1 Is it actually "caving" to halt an action that looks at least partly aimed at derailing Iran-US negotiations?

@DanielLDavis1 Apparently the US has already caved on the Lebanon ceasefire and the unfreezing of funds in Qatar. So this is just noise covering these retreats.

@chibio @Matt_Bedsole I remember taking the TGV bus into Aix-en-Provence and seeing a landscape of Carrefours, etc., that could have been on any equivalent street over here. These streets are similar, but more walkable and lively.

@j2parman @Matt_Bedsole It's a traditional and local shopping street (shotengai) in Meguro, Tokyo. This kind of shotengai is everywhere in Tokyo, and every cities in Japan.

Architecture is cool but the average Tokyo street has 5 of the ugliest buildings you've ever seen in your life, no street trees, about 100 power lines hanging 5 feet over your head, and it still embarrasses 99.9% of American streets as a place you actually want to spend time.

@bobbyfijan Change our tax regime to Singapore's and it's a deal.

And make Marin Singapore too!

@BraudelMarx @mtracey When @BraudelMarx and @RBReich converge, geopolitics may need a new problematic.

@mtracey Launch a war against Iran to cover up the Epstein files. Relaunch the Epstein files to cover up the strategic defeat to Iran.

This is gobsmacking. Not only did Melania Trump suddenly decide to give a televised address about Jeffrey Epstein, she's calling on Congress to "act," because Epstein was "not alone." So she just threw a giant stick of political dynamite on the issue her husband despises!

@tolles @markasaurus @EskSF With all deference, Arquitectonica phoned this one in. They've done better work at Mid-Market and Mission Bay. The Mayor needs to tell them to step it up a bit.

@j2parman @markasaurus @EskSF I like the pyramid at the Louvre, the Frank Gehry titanium buildings, as well as neoclassical palace of the legion of honor. Big bold and standing out will always get haters so hard to take any criticism seriously. We need a big triumph to alter the narrative. Build. More.

There's been a sea change in California state housing law and the proposed 25-story Marina Safeway behemoth (inconceivable even to sci-fi futurists) is looking very real. Meanwhile lots of other pipeline projects are languishing - via @MLNow @EskSF 1/2

@tolles @markasaurus @EskSF If you think "slick contemporary Miami" generic is a good move for the Marina District, you're entitled to your opinion. My sense is that this could be much better.

@j2parman @markasaurus @EskSF This is a fantastic project and as something that finally spikes football for pro growth people with a huge and amazing new building, I can only say “Finally”. It has been far too easy for a small bunch of whiners to block development for too long

@BraudelMarx @citrinowicz The Economist's current issue has Xi "sitting it out" to let Trump deal with his mistake. But this feels like China's moment to step forward as an arbiter - the only one, I would say, that could possibly engineer a deal.

Supposedly the new Ayatollah acted as an informal financial gatekeeper and asset manager for the regime. UAE would be one place Iran has assets, but Europe would be another. I mean given the sanctions pressure, it is obvious that many Iranian entities, including the IRGC, would necessarily have what are considered in the West as shadowy financial dealings across many domains.

In any discussion of a potential ceasefire, one critical point must be emphasized: Iran’s commitment to the broader network of fronts associated with the so-called “Axis of Resistance.” If the current conflict has demonstrated anything, it is that despite significant setbacks, this network remains far from dismantled. For Tehran, preserving this multi-front structure is not only a matter of ideology but also a key strategic asset, particularly in its ability to disperse pressure across different arenas. As a result, Iran is likely to insist that any ceasefire arrangement extend beyond a single theater and include parallel de-escalation across other fronts. Absent such an understanding, Tehran is likely to continue supporting allied actors especially in Lebanon, even if a bilateral ceasefire with the United States is reached. In practical terms, this means that a ceasefire limited to one arena may not translate into broader regional stability, and could instead leave underlying escalation dynamics intact.

@BraudelMarx @citrinowicz True, but I read that the UAE was a focal point of investment for Iranians in general. I assume that would include some of the regime's rank-and-file.

@markasaurus @EskSF When the law gives you this without recourse, the law is an ass, as someone once put it.

See the link here for more on the Marina Safeway from @EskSF missionlocal.org/2026/04/marina…

@BraudelMarx @citrinowicz Also, Iran's leaders were idiots to gather in one place. Didn't they notice what happened to Hizbollah?

"Back into negotiation"? Iran has been there three times, once with Obama and twice with Trump. The US immediately either broke the agreement or killed the negotiators / leadership class. On February 28th, Iran's leaders were meeting at the Ayatollah's compound to discuss a peace proposal and the US/Israel took the opportunity to launch an unprovoked and full-scale war of aggression. The reality is that the US is agreement-incapable and this conflict can only be solved on the economic battlefield, where Iran will choke out the global economy long before the US / Israel can destroy Iran. Remember as soon as the US starts hitting civilian infrastructure at scale, the GCC nations will get pummelled. Additionally, Iran can intensify the global economic pain by tasking the Houthis to restrict traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait. The Houthis can also destroy the Saudi pipeline that leads to the Red Sea, as well as its ports. With the US running out of standoff weapons and AD interceptors, Iran clearly holds escalation dominance. The only possible, and very temporary, ceasefire at this point is one to allow the Americans to flee their bases in the region. And let's not forget Israel's invasion of Lebanon, Iran will not abandon Hezbollah, especially since the IDF is near the point of exhaustion. But there is no way Iran will release its stranglehold on the strait until they are satisfied that the US / Israel will not attack for at least a decade. Meanwhile Iran will test a nuclear weapon and get plenty of high grade weapons systems from Russia and China.

@BraudelMarx @citrinowicz "The Economist" says Iran is now 2 economies and the military is doing fine. So, I concede that point, but I don't agree with you about negotiations.

@BraudelMarx @citrinowicz Are you sure peace was on the 28 February agenda?

@BraudelMarx @citrinowicz I assume any cease-fire would require both sides to freeze their positions, something that can be verified by third parties. Pakistan's proposal is a face-save that gets them back into negotiation. I hope they take it.

A ceasefire would grant the United States an operational pause to preposition ground manoeuvre elements along Iran's borders—a force build-up currently impossible under sustained Iranian anti-access and area denial fire. Tehran would be strategically foolish to accept any lull that allows the Pentagon to conduct a sea‑based reinforcement of two division‑equivalent forces over a 45‑day window. No commander would cede that kind of theatre entry advantage to an adversary actively preparing an invasion.

@fischbyne @sfchronicle Density is really a local issue. Exurbia is where low density found room to expand. The pressure is all on the transit-served inner core.

@sfchronicle @j2parman Why are the New Urbanists always trying to make Americans feel ashamed of our low density? The U.S. has 17 times more land and 5 times the population of France.

OPINION: Paris, though about the same size as San Francisco, manages to house more than double the number of residents. It does so with one building type — six stories, no notes. sfchronicle.com/opinion/articl…