Always bet the break

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Always bet the break

Always bet the break

@BreakAlways

Don't bet the break... (Cycling betting, Strategy, Game Theory)

Beigetreten Eylül 2020
77 Folgt4.3K Follower
Always bet the break
Always bet the break@BreakAlways·
@medicinexthings My belief is that he’s fundamentally a Footballer, and always will be. Most of the behavior that he does that’s strange for cycling is totally normal in football, this included. (This anger, his confidence/arrogance, how expressive he is generally, etc.)
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Always bet the break
Always bet the break@BreakAlways·
@tyukavinv3 Bit of hindsight - they were loaded at end of 2020: -25 YO 2020 Giro champion -23 YO 2019 TDF champion (would win 2021 Giro) -27 YO 2019 Giro champion, recently 2nd at 2020 Vuelta -2018 TDF champion, 2019 2nd, unlucky to crash out of 2020 Giro as odds-on favorite
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Always bet the break
Always bet the break@BreakAlways·
Huh. Geraint Thomas’ “we should sign fast riders who win bike races” strategy seems to have worked kind of well, in terms of winning bike races.
Always bet the break@BreakAlways

I had some fun with the “Thomas in Ineos leadership” move, but it should be said that he openly campaigned for them to have a sprinter for multiple years (for overall team benefits, purpose, etc.), worked to get Ewan in, and surely worked for Welsford’s signing.

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Matthias #SiempreGino
Matthias #SiempreGino@NairoInGreen·
ASO said they need Caja Rujal instead of (apparently) the best sprinter in the world, fairs
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Always bet the break
Always bet the break@BreakAlways·
@Rek951 @faustocoppi60 But if the rule doesn’t apply, he wouldn’t get the time of the main group either. It’s either the time of the group you were with, or the time you cross the line. Would never be “the time of the main peloton”. They’ve definitely applied the rule.
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Rek951
Rek951@Rek951·
@BreakAlways @faustocoppi60 I don't think so because Remco crashed by himself, rule should not apply here in theory. Different if he crashed because Jonas touched his wheel, but doesn't look like the case considering what Jonas said.
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Mihai Simion
Mihai Simion@faustocoppi60·
It would have been incredibly funny if Jonas kept going for the victory after Remco's crash. 😂 Not his fault that Remco chose to pull for 30 km and also not his fault that he crashed from what I've seen. Jonas was too fairplay, I would have done it. 😂 #VoltaCatalunya105
Mihai Simion tweet media
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Always bet the break
Always bet the break@BreakAlways·
Looked to me like Pogačar did a smart job of getting Pidcock’s front wheel on the barrier side, and then also opening up his sprint just before those potholes. Pidcock had to clear the back wheel *and* go wider away from Pog to avoid the potholes, at the start of the sprint
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Always bet the break
Always bet the break@BreakAlways·
Minor point but the rule needs to be clarified - seemed like the Visma guys took a long ride from their own team, while eg Pogacar had to ride behind just teammates
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Always bet the break
Always bet the break@BreakAlways·
Part of the reason I love this format is because it seems like the perfect distillation of the team time trial: How quickly could you get a message from Town A to Town B. Don't need 4 riders at the end to do that.
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Always bet the break
Always bet the break@BreakAlways·
@unikunka He seems like a gregarious and fun guy, most people seem to genuinely like him. I don't think anybody at NBC cares enough to tell him 'no'. He's probably inexpensive. To the execs that know of US cycling from Lance years he's familiar/funny. Same happens with US Soccer comms
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Always bet the break
Always bet the break@BreakAlways·
@unikunka Those years where it was ad-free world feed were so good. Roll started as a zany 4th personality on the 'prime time' TDF studio show for mainstream US fans, when Liggett/Sherwen did live comms. NBC to blame for moving him into this role, in my opinion... (1/2)
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Always bet the break
Always bet the break@BreakAlways·
Embarrassing (but not surprising) lack of preparation by Bob Roll on Peacock (NBC): His two calls for the stage wins S1: "Marine Van Den Berg!" S2: "The sprinter from the Astana squad. Likely Mike two-NEES-en." So many good announcers who need work, too.
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Always bet the break
Always bet the break@BreakAlways·
@Nebrisbeef The occasional mistake I understand. But it's clear that he doesn't have the talent to be a play-by-play (or 'announcer'), and isn't working at it. Even at best he's a color guy ('pundit'). He's just not good at it! Not a personal attack against him.
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Nebrisbeef 🇧🇪
Nebrisbeef 🇧🇪@Nebrisbeef·
@BreakAlways Sporza commentators, some of the best and most experienced in the business also called stage one as a Van den Berg win lol (Renaat Schotte and Jose De Cauwer), mistakes happen and looks like that one isn't the worst, as it happened to multiple people
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Always bet the break
Always bet the break@BreakAlways·
@unikunka Have a good/experienced play-by-play announcer and let Van de Velde do color commentary (which I think he's fine at). Or just use the world feed! I suspect there are very few people watching Paris-Nice streaming on peacock who'd rather have American announcers vs world feed
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Always bet the break
Always bet the break@BreakAlways·
“Paris Nice overlapping with Tirreno Adriatico proves the cycling calendar is bad” It’s the best week of the year! Like how in 2020 the day we had Madonna di Campiglio Giro, Soler Vuelta win, and a 💨 three days of de panne the 🚜 almost won was totally box office.
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Always bet the break
Always bet the break@BreakAlways·
And in most cases the new names reflect the cities/departments the races go through - I.e. the places that are investing in police, volunteering, inconveniencing citizens, etc., with the hope of getting some recognition and tourist dollars. I’m fine with it.
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Always bet the break
Always bet the break@BreakAlways·
A lot of complaints about races changing names. With the ⬆️ costs to put on races, how would you expect races to adapt? Teams take on sponsors and change names to survive, surely races can too? Would you prefer changed courses? Ticket sales? Races go out of business?
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Always bet the break
Always bet the break@BreakAlways·
Anyway you should become a friend of the Cycling Podcast and listen to it yourself and decide what you think.
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Always bet the break
Always bet the break@BreakAlways·
(Specifically, the UCI gets funded by race organizer fees. Races want good teams and riders. Encouraging a broad & deep pool of races helps both, and should also incentivize teams to participate and get mktg dollars.) Southam seems to want fewer races, and a more closed shop.
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Always bet the break
Always bet the break@BreakAlways·
10 minutes into this Southam-Friebe podcast, and so far EF's 'drawbacks' are that pts encourage: Teams to race globally Sending good riders to more races Investment in dev teams Higher employment (all staff) Signing riders from new geographies Bit of a Bug/Feature situation?
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Entdecken

@medicinexthings @tyukavinv3 @monarchoflife @NairoInGreen @AlfonsCarter @julioalbe89 @Rek951 @faustocoppi60