Bullfight Cap

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Bullfight Cap

Bullfight Cap

@BullfightCap

Long term tech bull but sometimes cynical bear

Beigetreten Eylül 2020
1.4K Folgt987 Follower
Bullfight Cap
Bullfight Cap@BullfightCap·
Spirit, iRobot, Figma… the body count from the Lina Khan doctrine is piling up
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Bullfight Cap
Bullfight Cap@BullfightCap·
Podcast appearances are inversely correlated with market share
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Bullfight Cap@BullfightCap·
@QuinnyPig Is there any Microsoft product from the last 20 years that doesn’t fall into that category?
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Corey Quinn
Corey Quinn@QuinnyPig·
Azure is the Microsoft Teams of cloud providers.
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Thomas Fanning
Thomas Fanning@Sunny_and_72·
GPT 5.5 seems good but very incremental for the *first Blackwell-trained model* I don't understand why this wouldn't be a major 🚩 to scaling law beliefs - which underpin the entire DC build out if future scaling will come from the SW layer, why do we need all this?
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John Arnold
John Arnold@johnarnold·
Do the people in the 15 cars backed up at the Starbucks drive-thru not realize that if they park and walk in, there's no line at the counter, or do they just dislike getting out of their car that much.
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dalibali
dalibali@dalibali2·
Trying to pick a software public co mispriced winner for AI almost feels like venture investing - you’re grading the quality of team. So might as well buy them all.
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Bullfight Cap
Bullfight Cap@BullfightCap·
Anthropic CPO joining the Fig board:
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Bullfight Cap@BullfightCap·
@parkerconrad Why do you think there are so few examples of public software companies with similarly strong AI results?
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Parker Conrad
Parker Conrad@parkerconrad·
Rippling AI was the most successful launch we've ever done. On the heels of this launch, Rippling's revenue is now growing 78% YoY (at ARR over $1 Billion). And this growth rate has now increased, every quarter, for three straight quarters.
Parker Conrad@parkerconrad

Rippling launched its AI analyst today. I'm not just the CEO - I'm also the Rippling admin for our co, and I run payroll for our ~ 5K global employees. Here are 5 specific ways Rippling AI has changed my job, and why I believe this is the future of G&A software. 🧵 1/n

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Bullfight Cap
Bullfight Cap@BullfightCap·
New BG2 podcast cover:
Bullfight Cap tweet media
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Dave Kellogg
Dave Kellogg@Kellblog·
Wired: bagels Tired: SaaS Just like that. Capital flows freely.
Aakash Gupta@aakashgupta

Tiger Global just valued a bagel shop at $300 million. And the math actually makes sense if you stare at it long enough. PopUp Bagels started in 2020 out of a kitchen in Westport, Connecticut. Adam Goldberg was baking bagels for neighbors during the pandemic. Five years later, Tiger Global closed a deal in late March that values the company at 5x what it was worth five months ago. The unit economics are what caught Tiger's attention. Average transaction over $24. Five bagel varieties. Three schmears. 55 total SKUs while competitors run 200-300. Stores are 1,000-1,200 square feet. Each location hires 10-15 employees instead of the 50-60 a typical QSR needs. No ice machines. No soda fountains. No fryers. They don't sell individual bagels. You buy packs of three, six, or twelve. You grip, rip, and dip. That constraint does two things simultaneously: it raises average order value above the threshold where a small-format store prints money, and it creates a ritual that photographs well. Every customer becomes a content creator. The franchise math: $330K-$810K to open, $35K franchise fee, 6% royalty. They've signed 300 franchise units with fewer than 15 operators. That's roughly 20 stores per operator. Experienced multi-unit franchisees running large territories, not first-timers buying a single shop. About 30 locations open now, targeting 100 by end of 2027. Celebrity investors include Paul Rudd, JJ Watt, Michael Phelps, Michael Strahan. Stripes bought a majority stake in 2023 and brought in a real CEO, Tory Bartlett, in late 2024. Adam Sandler has a dedicated phone at one of the New York shops to call in orders. They literally call it "the Sandler Phone." Here's what Tiger Global sees. The same firm that backed Meta, invested in OpenAI and Waymo, has been exiting 85+ companies from its most recent fund to concentrate on fewer, higher-conviction bets. They looked at a bagel company and decided it belonged in that concentrated portfolio. The $300 million number only works if you believe 300 franchise locations actually open and hit the projected unit economics. At an estimated $6M revenue per location and 18% margins, 100 operating stores would generate roughly $108M in systemwide profit. At 300, you're approaching the kind of numbers that make $300M look cheap. The real question is whether the hype survives national scale. PopUp Bagels built its brand on scarcity, long lines, and social media energy. Every franchise system in history has faced the tension between exclusivity and expansion. Levain Bakery, funded by the same firm Stripes, is the closest comparable, and it stayed small. Tiger's betting the ritual travels. That the 1,100 square foot format, the five-SKU simplicity, and the $24 average ticket create something that works in Tampa the same way it works in Greenwich Village. If they're right, this is the most capital-efficient restaurant concept of the decade. If they're wrong, it's a $300 million lesson in the difference between a brand and a business.

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Bullfight Cap
Bullfight Cap@BullfightCap·
Turns out dystopian product names don’t sell:
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Bullfight Cap
Bullfight Cap@BullfightCap·
@BucknSF So that’s why they call them “tendies”!
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