Buck

New post buckonsoftware.substack.com/p/the-software…

@buccocapital big notion and superhuman energy

“It organizes your files” “It prioritizes your emails” “It tells you insights about your calendar” These are not real things. They are not making you more productive. It is making you an idiot Yes, AI is great. But this is fake productivity. This is dumb. You are being dumb

@JaredKubin @RyanQualtrics I dunno man...seems like a use case that will get crushed by AI

I personally think QUALTRICS should have a footprint and data advantage in the AGE OF INFERENCE. Seems like baby bath water kind of thing here (admittedly haven’t seen their numbers since take private) What an awesome entrepreneurial story by @RyanQualtrics … one of my favorites Ryan… how does Qualtrics benefit from ai?

@WaterworldCapi1 top

@nachkari disgusting

@JaredSleeper @tryramp yeah this chart is bearish cursor

This is cool data from the @tryramp team, but with the world changing every 2-3 months, 12 month retention curves have arguably never been less important. Those last few points (spike for Anthropic, decline for OAI/Cursor) are the ones everyone is extrapolating right now.

@Nate_Pannu agree on consumer...speaking to enterprise

@BucknSF I just don’t know if they can justify multi trillions in valuation without consumer being a big part of the story. Maybe I’m wrong

one thing we may learn is that specialization is required by the labs. RL compute and data for complex tasks is expensive and productized harnesses require focus. if so that is bullish for anyone not specializing in the tasks the labs clearly want (code, excel, etc.)

@SouthernValue95 if VMS companies can build good agents then yes

@BucknSF VMS in other words

@tuskcap yeah we will know very quickly. every lab will have a semi-competitive coding model in 6 months.

@BucknSF my main skepticism is I wonder if the harnesses are that hard to build to deliver good outcomes, especially as coding models get better

@JigsawCap s12z

To those of you who can’t spell “Strait” correctly — for your own sake and dignity, just start saying “Hormuz” or “SOH” — you’re embarrassing yourselves and just don’t know it

@TMTLongShort deficit from -6.2% to -5.7% is a moderate decrease? what you smoking dude

@BucknSF Moderate decrease in deficit as share of GDP, treasury market tamed. Ofc deficit in nominal dollars still terrible but it’s improving as share of gdp and that’s progress.

Off the dome best case scenario for republicans into midterms. Very very far from consensus but quick summary of how this might go down (optimistically): Iran capitulates and new moderate IRGC takes over that agrees to more freedoms and American temp overwatch. America retains temp control via Kharg or carrier off the strait. GCC is grateful to US for neutralizing threat of Iran LT and agrees to historic treasury buying and pricing oil in dollars for next generation. Trump goes to congress and says look fiscal house is getting better let’s send Americans a $3k check using tarrifs we plan to collect under new 15% flat rate post SC ruling. Real wage growth already accelerating. Double benefit of record tax refunds and $3k check = over 7% real wage growth for avg swing voter which drives record turnout and red sweep in midterms

@matt_slotnick @can freddo espresso begs to differ

@can latte with randomized levels of patience at every step

my biggest conspiracy theory is that all espresso based drinks are actually the same drink. there’s no flatwhite or cortado or whatever. it’s all latte.

Just get me a copilot that works man

@matt_slotnick man not really using datadog stops using datadog

@cap_zay would bet median will be close to zero for all of those years when all is said and done

Imagine getting sub 10% irr on a 10 year illiquid asset. Private markets cooked for a while.

It’s not an addiction, it’s trading

@dylan522p GainsAnalysis

Did you know that Eupoor's are also weaker When they have a bar and plate on each side, thats 60kg When Americans do that thats 135lbs The standard Eupoor does 3lbs less per typical lift as a result