CapitalEdge

6.4K posts

CapitalEdge

CapitalEdge

@Capital_Edge_

Cross-Asset Market Analysis & Research

Australia Beigetreten Haziran 2019
560 Folgt4K Follower
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CapitalEdge
CapitalEdge@Capital_Edge_·
Periodical reminder that the S&P requires 'reasons' to sell off, and not reasons to rally. Also, another reminder that there is very little benefit in getting married to any particular bias, but were you to get married to one, in the long run history favours a bullish one. There will be fluctuations and sell offs along the way, but for better long-term mental health you'd probably want to be the person on the right far more often than the person on the left. Just saying. Have fun.
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CapitalEdge
CapitalEdge@Capital_Edge_·
@MrMBrown Bailey has a song in mind right now... And I swear you're just like a Pill 'Stead of makin' me better You keep makin' me ill
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Michael Brown@MrMBrown·
Huw Pill...what an utter moron...
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Fusion Markets
Fusion Markets@FusionMarkets·
Heading into the ECB, markets price a first hike by June and 3 hikes total by year-end. At the same time, the Citi Economic Surprice Index continues to drift lower as data continues to dissapoint market expectations.
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Fusion Markets
Fusion Markets@FusionMarkets·
Brent positioning is flashing bearish. But the geopolitical backdrop couldn't be more bullish. So which one is right? The answer depends on what positioning is actually measuring right now, and it's not what most people think. Want to know more about the market? Drop your question in the comments. #CrudeOil #OilMarkets #Commodities #TradingPsychology #MarketPositioning #WTI #Brent #ICE #NYMEX #MacroTrading #EnergyMarkets #GeopoliticalRisk #TradingMindset #AskArno
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Fusion Markets
Fusion Markets@FusionMarkets·
Quick comparison on rate expectations for the FOMC following yesterday's decision. Notable hawkish shift across the curve, and rate markets pricing reflects what we know right now, but the path is HIGHLY dependent on the path for oil prices and inflation.
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Fusion Markets
Fusion Markets@FusionMarkets·
$USDJPY pushing towards the July high near 162... the BoJ is in a tough spot because it's hard to argue against the fundamental upside. Might see some jawboning from the MoF later.
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Fusion Markets
Fusion Markets@FusionMarkets·
$US100 within striking distance of all-time highs as $GOOGL and $AMZN push higher in after-market trading following solid earnings results.
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Fusion Markets
Fusion Markets@FusionMarkets·
Yields will rise after the FOMC sees rate markets pricing 17 basis points of tightening by the middle of next year. Goes without saying, but the blue line (oil) is all that matters for these expectations right now.
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CapitalEdge
CapitalEdge@Capital_Edge_·
@VolaTim @PiQSuite 😂😂 There was ample opportunity, but unfortunately I didn't, next time though, just for you Tim
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Fusion Markets
Fusion Markets@FusionMarkets·
Interesting setup in Brent positioning at the moment. Similar to the divergence between ICE and NYMEX in both March and June 2022.
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Fusion Markets
Fusion Markets@FusionMarkets·
The BoE is priced to hold rates. Focus for the decision will centre around any drastic shifts in the vote-split, as well as the bank's language around the market's expectations for two hikes by year-end. Some thoughts from our Market Analyst, Arno 👇 fusionmarkets.com.au/posts/boe-deci…
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Fusion Markets
Fusion Markets@FusionMarkets·
Rate markets have priced in very close to 3 hikes by year-end, with a 87% chance of a May hike. That means the bar for even more hawkish pricing might be a bit high heading into this one.
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Fusion Markets
Fusion Markets@FusionMarkets·
The forecast distribution is fairly tight, and given the RBA's sensitivity to inflation risks, any print at or below the min or at or above the max expectations could carry more weight than usual.
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Fusion Markets
Fusion Markets@FusionMarkets·
Aussie CPI coming up at 01:30 UTC Markets expect a sizeable pop in headline CPI, with very little acceleration seen in key core measures like the Trimmed Mean. Worth noting we get both the monthly & quarterly measures, but RBA decisions will be based largely on quarterly figs
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