Cascade43

🇪🇺 ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations Exploded for March 2026 April 28, ECP released the March European Consumer Survey: • 1-year ahead expectations surged to 4.0% (from 2.5%), the highest since Oct 2023 and the biggest monthly spike since early 2022 • 3-year ahead rose from 2.5% to 3.0% • 5-year ahead still relatively anchored at ~2.4% (up from 2.3%) • Past 12-month perceived inflation also jumped from 3.0% to 3.5% Near-term uncertainty is rising fast, broad-based across income groups, with lower-income households feeling it more. This screams renewed stagflation risks driven by energy price spikes and geopolitical tensions. Market implications ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting: - Hawkish tilt with limited rate cuts, possible hikes later in 2026 - Pressure on European equities: higher cost of capital + margin squeeze in energy-sensitive sectors - Supports euro resilience in the near term versus USD

Fed's Powell: If hikes are needed, we will signal and act. Fed's Powell: Will signal if rate cuts are needed. Fed's Powell: We are well positioned to shift in any direction. Fed's Powell: no one advocating rate increase at the moment Fed's Powell: Will depend on how conditions unfold.

March PCE consensus calls for core to tick up from February's 2.97% YoY to 3.20% (purple line). If realized, this would be the hottest print in the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge since November 2023.

$TRUF is essentially only a couple of months/weeks till potentially breaking out of a logarithmic, multi year down trend. It looks like we have 1 bottom already printed and I’m not 100% certain we’ll get another stab at it. There’s a lot great things coming to this project and the team is very much still hard at work. As soon as my check clears I’ll be DCAing more

Poll: Economists raised 2026 inflation outlook for 44 of 50 major economies.