TRUF.NETWORK

Consumer confidence collapsed to its lowest point since 2014, surpassing pandemic depths, according to a preliminary January report by the Conference Board (with data collection cutoff on Jan 16). - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 84.5, from 94.2 in December (-9.7 points) - December’s data were revised up by 5.1-point reversing the initially reported decline - The Present Situation Index (consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions) decreased 113.7 in January (-9.9 points) - The Expectations Index (consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions) fell to 65.1 (-9.5 points). The Expectations Index threshold of 80 usually signals a recession ahead This data is significantly worse than the Michigan University Consumer Sentiment data from last week, which showed January sentiment up from December and a small but broad improvement across all income levels, education, age, and political affiliations. Truflation's new Consumer Confidence Index, which aggregates public consumer confidence surveys with X/Twitter sentiment data, declined from mid-December to January, but despite volatility, it's stayed above the 75-point mark since November, when we started collecting the data. The Conference Board survey also shows a strong political divide in overall consumer confidence levels.

US Inflation has further dropped to 1.20% today. Main drivers of this latest in a series of disinflationary coolings were: - Food - mostly Eggs - Household durables - particularly housekeeping supplies - Alcohol & tobacco - mostly alcoholic beverages Our number is derived by aggregating millions of real-time price data points every day to calculate a year-over-year CPI % rate. It is comparable but not identical to the survey-based official headline inflation released monthly by the BLS, which was 2.7% for December.