Peter
1.5K posts

Peter
@Catalyst_Peter
Husband | Calisthenics Athlete | Long Term Value Investor Newsletter - off the beaten path lifestyle topics















From Trump’s first executive orders; $UUUU #uranium


2025 Outlook: Semisubs $ODL.OL $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $NOL.OL Link in Bio. Free. Summary: Semisubs are generally designed for more harsh environments such as the Norwegian Continental Shelf, whereas drillships most often work in more benign conditions in the Golden Triangle (US GoM, LatAM and West Africa). Many differences exist amongst semisubs, notably including eligibility to work in Norway. The largest market for semisubs, Norway, was viewed as a mature market during the last newbuild cycle 10+ years ago. Accordingly, fewer newbuild semisub orders were made than drillships which foresaw more growth in Brazil and West Africa at the time. As we head into 2025, the Norwegian semisub market is healthy with strong utilization and recent dayrate prints in the mid-$400k’s to low-$500k’s. Semisub eligibility in Norway is a good club to be in but has premium dues (SPS) every five years. Semisubs without eligibility to work in Norway come in different shapes and sizes but are more likely to be idle and earning discounted dayrates due to weaker option value. The Norwegian Offshore Directorate published research in 2024 stating Norway’s offshore discoveries over the last 20 years are valued at 3x the costs incurred on a NPV basis. Norway generally does not have headline discoveries, although benefits from a high quantity of smaller discoveries to support lower cost infrastructure-led capex often cited with ~$35/boe breakevens. Exploration drilling is trending positively and is likely to continue in coming years based on Norwegian E&P public commentary. H/T @EivindEnd and recommended follow




pracap.com/the-wheels-fal… The Wheels Fall Off…













