Greg Bae

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Greg Bae

Greg Bae

@GregBae

20 years in Big Tech, now financial freedom. Trading options: silver, gold, copper, energy, AI. HODL BTC 10 years. Husband, dad, cars.

Austin, TX Beigetreten Ocak 2010
423 Folgt465 Follower
Greg Bae
Greg Bae@GregBae·
Of course that's your contention, Graham disciple. You're a self-styled value purist, fresh off “The Intelligent Investor,”convinced margin of safety means dismissing TACO as speculation. That's gonna last until next tariff threat—then you'll be regurgitating Graham on 'thorough analysis' and 'Mr. Market's moods.' Well as a matter of fact, your whole denial drastically underestimates the impact of empirical pattern - Trump threatens, dips, chickens out, prints. You got that 'timeless fundamentals' purity from Ch. 8, right? Yeah, I read that too. Were you gonna plagiarize the entire gospel just to look superior and miss the obvious alpha? The sad thing is, in six months you'll still be that poser denying TACO while the rest cash out.
Greg Bae tweet media
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

Exactly 12 hours after our "warning," President Trump has INTERVENED: Yesterday, at 7:35 PM ET, we posted that "oil prices are no longer the biggest threat to markets." We said it has become increasingly clear that "bond markets will dictate just how long President Trump can continue increase pressure in the Iran War." At 4:30 AM ET today, we noted that bond market is now more "broken" than the energy market situation. Then, as the 10Y Note Yield hit 4.45% last night, President Trump likely had the same conversation as he did on April 9th, 2025, when he paused tariffs for 90-days. 3 hours later, President Trump postponed all strikes on Iranian power plants for 5 days and said the US and Iran have had "productive" talks to end the war. And, the intervention becomes even more clear. 30 minutes later, Iran denied President Trump's claims and said Trump is trying to "buy time" by calming markets. The 10Y Yield briefly collapsed before rebounding back to 4.38% now, a clear attempt by the US to contain the brewing bond market crisis. The US simply cannot afford the 10Y Yield at 4.50%+. Keep watching the bond market.

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US Oil & Gas Association
US Oil & Gas Association@US_OGA·
Atlas is shrugging. In Miami.
Matt Whitlock@MattWhitlock

Kathy Hochul making a weak plea for wealthy people who have left New York (to red states like Florida) to come back to pay their high taxes to fund failing (unaccountable) social programs: “I need people who are high net worth to support the generous social programs we have in our state. Some patriotic millionaires who stepped up. Ok! Cut the me the checks. But if you want to supportive, maybe the first step should be go down to palm beach and see who you can bring back home

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Greg Bae
Greg Bae@GregBae·
@elonmusk But have you heard the band Kardashev?
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Greg Bae
Greg Bae@GregBae·
Took some liquidity out of the system but not enough for this epic precious metals slam down. Spring break with my wife and kids takes precedence over trades this week. Get sun, ride bikes, touch grass - true wealth.
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Greg Bae
Greg Bae@GregBae·
@IterIntellectus Tragic! This only makes sense in the context of covering their tracks on prior damaging policy mistakes. They are giving victims an out without going after the perps.
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vittorio
vittorio@IterIntellectus·
my conspiracy theory officially, less than 1% of women wanted this. it passed after 46 minutes of commons debate, without public consultation or evidence sessions, it was tagged onto a crime and policing bill while being the biggest change to abortion law since 1967 this is the same country that spent a decade covering up industrial scale raping gangs because they were afraid of "community relations" women getting pregnant from rapes nobody would prosecute, unable to legally terminate, ending up in courts that force questions nobody in government wants to answer so what do you do. you can't face the gangs issue because that means facing the corruption and the coverups. you can't arrest the girls because that leads back to the gangs again. so you make the abortions legal and stop talking about the rapes
Dr Rahmeh Aladwan@doctor_rahmeh

The UK House of Lords has just legalised abortion up to birth. Women can now end the life of their unborn baby at any stage, for any reason, without legal consequences. A truly dark day for Britain.

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Greg Bae
Greg Bae@GregBae·
@IterIntellectus Simple - criminal intent is a prerequisite for public office in our current climate. 😞
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Greg Bae
Greg Bae@GregBae·
@ShaanVP We will see more of this CEOs get out of jail for free by blaming AI, all while reversing the excesses of the COVID years
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Greg Bae
Greg Bae@GregBae·
Sorry about your margin - call I’m down on my HL and SILJ position too. I’d suggest picking up copies of these. The trend lines typically have more retrospective analytical power than future price action predictions. In either case, you want the line to touch touch the edges, and not bisect the candles
Greg Bae tweet media
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Dr. Don Woods
Dr. Don Woods@DonaldW60852684·
I'm not an expert on charting, but I find drawing these lines helpful. I wasn't doing this before I made my stupid decision to buy much more HL when it was over priced because of the silver euphoria. If I had been doing this I probably would have recognized my error. Many smarter people were saying to take some profits before January 30th. Now posting these charts with the blue line reminds me that we don't have any good data to say the trend will reverse. In general I don't follow chartists, I concentrate on fundamentals as a value investor. So maybe trend line is not the proper term, what would you call it?
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Dr. Don Woods
Dr. Don Woods@DonaldW60852684·
Given the 5% drop in silver price in China last night I wouldn't be surprised to see silver drop to $78 today. That would push silver significantly below the trend line. The only reason silver would go much lower is China having sufficient silver for its factories. I still feel China has a silver deficit, their margin hikes and not letting speculators take possession of silver would be reversed if the supply was adequate. Samsung wouldn't have made its deal with Silver Storm Mining if there wasn't a silver shortage.
Dr. Don Woods tweet media
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Charlie Smirkley
Charlie Smirkley@charliesmirkley·
NYC spends more per homeless person than the median NYC household earns. $81,705 per person in FY2025. And $81,705 is a floor. It excludes supportive housing (~$500M/yr), mental health response teams, and NYPD encampment costs. The city projects ~$97K per person in FY2026.
Charlie Smirkley tweet media
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Greg Bae
Greg Bae@GregBae·
@Mr_Derivatives XYZ popped over 20% with a 40% headcount reduction so target 10% upside? 😂
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Greg Bae
Greg Bae@GregBae·
@andrewchen I imagine at your scale that is a huge cost. Time seems to be an unavoidable part of the assessment process though! (As an operator I have spent >25% of the week on recruiting/evals.)
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andrew chen
andrew chen@andrewchen·
@GregBae the problem is the time cost involved. I think we can do an interactive session but it would have to be at the very very end. It's nice to see homework earlier in the process as a preview of their work product
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andrew chen
andrew chen@andrewchen·
In recent years interviews for execs, product managers, marketers, etc have started to add a homework step so that people can show work output. It can be super helpful signal In recent weeks these homework replies have become overwhelmed with AI slop. Instead of 2-3 succinct pages reflecting a career of deep thinking, you get back fifteen pages of meandering ideas that anyone could generate What's the best way to address this? The best way, of course, is to actually work with them on a work trial so that you can really get a feel for how they act; however this is difficult because it takes a lot of time for them and for you so you have to reserve it for the end of your hiring funnel A more scalable idea is to ask people to present their homework in a recorded presentation so that they actually sign off on everything that they say and it's possible to ask them interactively later If you go much more structured, you risk offending the highest-end talent Other ideas? Open to the thoughts
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Mr. VIX
Mr. VIX@yieldsearcher·
You know how much sentiment in crypto is super depressed when IBIT is +12% this month with BTC above $73K, and no one bats an eye.
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Ejaaz
Ejaaz@cryptopunk7213·
holy shit Meta might ditch ai efforts and go with google gemini instead Meta to delay their new AI model launch and use gemini to power Meta AI - HUGE fucking win for google: - Meta's avocado model underperformed frontier models from openai, google and anthropic (shitty reasoning, coding etc) - this comes after Meta spent $20B hiring a new AI team thats produced... no ai models. - looking at licensing google gemini (google just licensed to Apple for $1B per year) Google is fast-becoming the preferred model for the largest companies in the world. Meta has 3.6 BILLION MAUs if this happens google will single-handedly have the largest AI distribution of any company.
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Andrew Curran@AndrewCurran_

META has delayed the release of Avocado until at least May after it underperformed on internal evals, according to reporting by the NYT. They are considering licensing Gemini from Google as a temporary solution.

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Greg Bae
Greg Bae@GregBae·
@AsianDawn4 Even after their legendary partnership with GM to produce the Honda Prologue?? 😭
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Greg Bae
Greg Bae@GregBae·
@KobeissiLetter If costs are mounting, then some companies are getting paid. What's the best way to get exposure?
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
BREAKING: The US has burned through "years" worth of munitions since start of the Iran war, just 13 days ago, per FT. Details include: 1. Concerns are reportedly mounting around rising costs and the US’ ability to replenish stockpiles 2. The rapid depletion of weaponry includes advanced long-range Tomahawk missiles, sources say 3. The Pentagon is set to request $50 billion in additional spending for the military 4. Pentagon officials told Senators that the war had cost more than $11 billion in the first 6 days of strikes Costs of the Iran war are rapidly mounting.
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Greg Bae
Greg Bae@GregBae·
@firstadopter The Middle East is less consequential for US oil demand than I suspected!
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Top 10 common fallacies I keep seeing again and again on X. And some of the most important things I look out for too when doing research: 1. Being in "crowded" names like $LITE or $COHR does not mean these names won't go higher. (Just look at Nvidia throughout 2022 -> 2026). 2. Don't conflate bottlenecks and critical companies in supply chains like SpaceX or Nvidia with stock market returns. What matters is how it translates to material operating income. The reason I mention $AXTI, is likely price hikes from being that bottleneck. 3. Insider Sales are the extreme noise. You will never see me quote that anywhere to derive projections and what the MC should be at. 4. Repeat after me. TA is only an indicator, not a bible. Please stop posting TAs underneath my Soitec posts to say "overextended!!!" without any reference to fundamentals, catalysts, or macro. TA's especially, mean nothing when there's extreme fundamental changes (eg. $6B in share dilution or upcoming IPO float lockup like $BULL, $CRCL). 5. DILUTION IS DIFFERENT. ATMs are different than convertible notes that are different than loans. It's extremely nuanced. Some lead to more equity returns than others that are more harmful (eg. $IREN $6B ATM). Float dynamics, ATM sizes relative to marketcap, and all others need to be accounted for. 6. Markets are forward looking. It's just a matter of how far in the future they look. Stop only posting previous revenue guidance only to justify valuations pricing in forward growth eg. $TSEM forward growth for photonics ramp. 7. Revenue/Gross Margins/Profit are extremely, extremely nuanced. Profit can be hid in tax writeoffs, and margins can be hid in other parts of the income statement like opex, or in depreciation. So posting "gross margins/profit" (eg. $IREN) and using that to justify it vs. other neoclouds means nothing if the accounting is not normalized 8. Net Income is not the same as GAAP Net Income. True profitability from companies like $SNAP are hid by things like stock-based compensation. When a company reports non-GAAP net income of $500 million to the media, their official SEC-filed GAAP net income could be a $150 million loss because of SBC. 9. Float Dynamics + Dilution are important. You can say "oh this company is $150M MC, 30m profit" but if you're forgetting there's a massive dilution overhead at X strike, then all your research gets thrown out the drain. 10. Make sure to factor in REVENUE GROWTH/TAM. You can grow a company 200% one year, but if TAM maxes out like in Fintech then revenue growth eventually falls off the cliff. Hence why $RKLB gets premiums for infinite Space TAM growth while other companies in fintech growing at 40% Y/Y don't.
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