Greg Bae

@US_OGA Who is John Galt?

Atlas is shrugging. In Miami.

@elonmusk But have you heard the band Kardashev?

Took some liquidity out of the system but not enough for this epic precious metals slam down. Spring break with my wife and kids takes precedence over trades this week. Get sun, ride bikes, touch grass - true wealth.

@IterIntellectus Tragic! This only makes sense in the context of covering their tracks on prior damaging policy mistakes. They are giving victims an out without going after the perps.

my conspiracy theory officially, less than 1% of women wanted this. it passed after 46 minutes of commons debate, without public consultation or evidence sessions, it was tagged onto a crime and policing bill while being the biggest change to abortion law since 1967 this is the same country that spent a decade covering up industrial scale raping gangs because they were afraid of "community relations" women getting pregnant from rapes nobody would prosecute, unable to legally terminate, ending up in courts that force questions nobody in government wants to answer so what do you do. you can't face the gangs issue because that means facing the corruption and the coverups. you can't arrest the girls because that leads back to the gangs again. so you make the abortions legal and stop talking about the rapes

@IterIntellectus Simple - criminal intent is a prerequisite for public office in our current climate. 😞

lol what is happening

@ShaanVP We will see more of this CEOs get out of jail for free by blaming AI, all while reversing the excesses of the COVID years

Layoffs should be rebranded as “Earnings Buybacks” Aioli, not mayo

Sorry about your margin - call I’m down on my HL and SILJ position too. I’d suggest picking up copies of these. The trend lines typically have more retrospective analytical power than future price action predictions. In either case, you want the line to touch touch the edges, and not bisect the candles

I'm not an expert on charting, but I find drawing these lines helpful. I wasn't doing this before I made my stupid decision to buy much more HL when it was over priced because of the silver euphoria. If I had been doing this I probably would have recognized my error. Many smarter people were saying to take some profits before January 30th. Now posting these charts with the blue line reminds me that we don't have any good data to say the trend will reverse. In general I don't follow chartists, I concentrate on fundamentals as a value investor. So maybe trend line is not the proper term, what would you call it?

Given the 5% drop in silver price in China last night I wouldn't be surprised to see silver drop to $78 today. That would push silver significantly below the trend line. The only reason silver would go much lower is China having sufficient silver for its factories. I still feel China has a silver deficit, their margin hikes and not letting speculators take possession of silver would be reversed if the supply was adequate. Samsung wouldn't have made its deal with Silver Storm Mining if there wasn't a silver shortage.

@charliesmirkley “SF frantically takes notes”

NYC spends more per homeless person than the median NYC household earns. $81,705 per person in FY2025. And $81,705 is a floor. It excludes supportive housing (~$500M/yr), mental health response teams, and NYPD encampment costs. The city projects ~$97K per person in FY2026.

@Mr_Derivatives XYZ popped over 20% with a 40% headcount reduction so target 10% upside? 😂

$META Stock could pop 5% off this news Monday? I mean every time we hear about mass layoffs, the co’s stock temporarily pops.

@andrewchen I imagine at your scale that is a huge cost. Time seems to be an unavoidable part of the assessment process though! (As an operator I have spent >25% of the week on recruiting/evals.)

@GregBae the problem is the time cost involved. I think we can do an interactive session but it would have to be at the very very end. It's nice to see homework earlier in the process as a preview of their work product

In recent years interviews for execs, product managers, marketers, etc have started to add a homework step so that people can show work output. It can be super helpful signal In recent weeks these homework replies have become overwhelmed with AI slop. Instead of 2-3 succinct pages reflecting a career of deep thinking, you get back fifteen pages of meandering ideas that anyone could generate What's the best way to address this? The best way, of course, is to actually work with them on a work trial so that you can really get a feel for how they act; however this is difficult because it takes a lot of time for them and for you so you have to reserve it for the end of your hiring funnel A more scalable idea is to ask people to present their homework in a recorded presentation so that they actually sign off on everything that they say and it's possible to ask them interactively later If you go much more structured, you risk offending the highest-end talent Other ideas? Open to the thoughts

@DarioCpx Post of the day 😂

Hundreds of billions of Capex guacamole

@yieldsearcher Still stuck in limbo…

You know how much sentiment in crypto is super depressed when IBIT is +12% this month with BTC above $73K, and no one bats an eye.

@cryptopunk7213 Legendary fumble

holy shit Meta might ditch ai efforts and go with google gemini instead Meta to delay their new AI model launch and use gemini to power Meta AI - HUGE fucking win for google: - Meta's avocado model underperformed frontier models from openai, google and anthropic (shitty reasoning, coding etc) - this comes after Meta spent $20B hiring a new AI team thats produced... no ai models. - looking at licensing google gemini (google just licensed to Apple for $1B per year) Google is fast-becoming the preferred model for the largest companies in the world. Meta has 3.6 BILLION MAUs if this happens google will single-handedly have the largest AI distribution of any company.

@AsianDawn4 Even after their legendary partnership with GM to produce the Honda Prologue?? 😭

Honda Executives right now

@KobeissiLetter If costs are mounting, then some companies are getting paid. What's the best way to get exposure?

BREAKING: The US has burned through "years" worth of munitions since start of the Iran war, just 13 days ago, per FT. Details include: 1. Concerns are reportedly mounting around rising costs and the US’ ability to replenish stockpiles 2. The rapid depletion of weaponry includes advanced long-range Tomahawk missiles, sources say 3. The Pentagon is set to request $50 billion in additional spending for the military 4. Pentagon officials told Senators that the war had cost more than $11 billion in the first 6 days of strikes Costs of the Iran war are rapidly mounting.

@firstadopter The Middle East is less consequential for US oil demand than I suspected!

Well done Reuters. Kick ass data visualization

@aleabitoreddit Love the energy and insights! Keep going

Top 10 common fallacies I keep seeing again and again on X. And some of the most important things I look out for too when doing research: 1. Being in "crowded" names like $LITE or $COHR does not mean these names won't go higher. (Just look at Nvidia throughout 2022 -> 2026). 2. Don't conflate bottlenecks and critical companies in supply chains like SpaceX or Nvidia with stock market returns. What matters is how it translates to material operating income. The reason I mention $AXTI, is likely price hikes from being that bottleneck. 3. Insider Sales are the extreme noise. You will never see me quote that anywhere to derive projections and what the MC should be at. 4. Repeat after me. TA is only an indicator, not a bible. Please stop posting TAs underneath my Soitec posts to say "overextended!!!" without any reference to fundamentals, catalysts, or macro. TA's especially, mean nothing when there's extreme fundamental changes (eg. $6B in share dilution or upcoming IPO float lockup like $BULL, $CRCL). 5. DILUTION IS DIFFERENT. ATMs are different than convertible notes that are different than loans. It's extremely nuanced. Some lead to more equity returns than others that are more harmful (eg. $IREN $6B ATM). Float dynamics, ATM sizes relative to marketcap, and all others need to be accounted for. 6. Markets are forward looking. It's just a matter of how far in the future they look. Stop only posting previous revenue guidance only to justify valuations pricing in forward growth eg. $TSEM forward growth for photonics ramp. 7. Revenue/Gross Margins/Profit are extremely, extremely nuanced. Profit can be hid in tax writeoffs, and margins can be hid in other parts of the income statement like opex, or in depreciation. So posting "gross margins/profit" (eg. $IREN) and using that to justify it vs. other neoclouds means nothing if the accounting is not normalized 8. Net Income is not the same as GAAP Net Income. True profitability from companies like $SNAP are hid by things like stock-based compensation. When a company reports non-GAAP net income of $500 million to the media, their official SEC-filed GAAP net income could be a $150 million loss because of SBC. 9. Float Dynamics + Dilution are important. You can say "oh this company is $150M MC, 30m profit" but if you're forgetting there's a massive dilution overhead at X strike, then all your research gets thrown out the drain. 10. Make sure to factor in REVENUE GROWTH/TAM. You can grow a company 200% one year, but if TAM maxes out like in Fintech then revenue growth eventually falls off the cliff. Hence why $RKLB gets premiums for infinite Space TAM growth while other companies in fintech growing at 40% Y/Y don't.

@AutismCapital Currency debasement everywhere

🚨NEW: Fortnite is ONCE AGAIN increasing the price of V-Bucks on March 19. $8.99 Pack – 800 V-Bucks (was 1,000) $22.99 Pack – 2,400 V-Bucks (was 2,800) $36.99 Pack – 4,500 V-Bucks (was 5,000) $89.99 Pack – 12,500 V-Bucks (was 13,500) "The cost of running Fortnite has gone up a lot, and we’re raising prices to help pay the bills." We're in scam season, boys. Everyone's money grabbing.