Joseph Obertlik
1.8K posts


@DCDOWORK @Sandeman52 Because valuation matters and buying a company valued at 1.75T that generates 18B in revenue and loses 5B a year isn’t a good investment. Maybe they will generate the numbers analysts are projecting in 2030. If they do, you’re already paying for that today, and some.
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@Sandeman52 why not dollar cost average for the next 12 months?
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@Investors___X As Charlie munger would call it they will be at 10x LTM bullshit earnings.
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@TheLongInvest Neither. $ASTS trades at 10x sales from projected 2030 revenues. Seems like it’s all hype and momentum traders piling in. High risk and gambling.
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Just a reminder
If SpaceX is valued at $1.7 Trillion
This means that Starlink MUST be valued between $600-$900 Billion
Meaning
$ASTS at $37 Billion Market Cap could 20 X from here and will be at the lower scale of the valuation of Starlink, while arguably a stronger product
So what’s more attractive right now?
SpaceX or $ASTS
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@derekquick1 Bear market or not, people will still be obese.
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@TheLongInvest Now it’s only overvalued by $100/share and not $160/share. Thats about the only
Thing that changed
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@investingwithac Mark was like, down .5% today?? Let’s reaffirm.
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I just did some napkin math and couldn’t believe my eyes $OSCR it actually stopped me in my tracks and I had to send a message out to see if I was totally losing it or not.
None of this can be used concretely yet. But this is why I say know what you own and why you own it.
The numbers for CY ‘27 are actually unfathomable to me at this point. Just threw in 750m-1b earnings from operations which is a reasonable number.
Slap a 1x p/s and/or 35-40x multiple for a tech enabled growth stock in health care.
The stock price estimates are nutty.
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@TheValueTrade A company valued at 550 million with just 5 million in revenues last year, Noncompliance issues, sounds like poor risk management and there’s much higher and better uses of capital.
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Reliable bottom indicator.
$HSI $BABA $BIDU $BYDDY $NIO
Watcher.Guru@WatcherGuru
JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇨🇳 US designates Alibaba, BYD and Baidu as companies that support the Chinese military.
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Nio Brand’s Average Selling Price Jumps 15% with New Flagship SUV — EV $NIO via @EV_CARBA
eletric-vehicles.com/nio/nio-brands…
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@investingwithac You forgot NIO and $HIMS?? Ehhh you’re better than that.
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@DCDOWORK Got some bad rain and wind here in town. Briefly lost power also
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