Julian Lin

Was on the Investing Experts @SeekingAlpha Podcast with @RenaSherbill where I discussed the safest preferred stock I have ever seen with a 9.5% yield, and why $IIPR is also a conviction buy at a 15% yield $MSOS podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/sto… open.spotify.com/show/30dUmqhaQ…

@Mr_Neutral_Man sorry for your loss. You forgot some ketchup.

Wife’s grandma passed away and she’s in China for 17 days Was supposed to go to NCAA wrestling with the boys for 4 days Net 21 day swing Treating myself to $1.50 hotdog and $2.49 chocolate chip cookies at $COST for a little break

@KnoxMarlow @Mr_Neutral_Man so I can agree that preferreds typically have downside of common. But that is typically due to high leverage. In the absence of leverage, preferred does have far less downside than the common.

@JulianLinStocks @Mr_Neutral_Man Prefs have the downside of common without the upside. When the industry shakes out, many of IIPR’s legacy tenants will disappear. They aren’t going to use the pennies to repay the pref. They’ll pay management and liabilities and … sayonara.

Apparently the $IIPR preferred memo was not clear enough IIPR could lose 86% of its EBITDA before it starts impacting the prefer payment To be fair, they will probably cut or suspend the preferred dividend if 50% of the EBITDA goes away, but it will accrue Hence 7.0x coverage ratio

these businesses actually are better than they look. The lack of GAAP profitability is of course weighed down by 280e, but there's a lot of excessive management compensation at a lot of the operators. $GTBIF is amazing, visionary, but the profit engine is probably replicatable at others too.

@Mr_Neutral_Man @yenoms @JulianLinStocks 2/ With so many opportunities, why take equity risk with respect to a bunch of counterparties in a dumpster-fire business? But I hear you on position sizing etc.

Check your inboxes subscribers, just sent out a memo titled from hardasset2023@gmail.com 10% Preferrred Dividend Stock valued at an Implied 51% Cap Rate $IIPR has $50MM of a preferred stock paying 10% and covers fixed cost 7 X Shout out to @JulianLinStocks for the suggestion

@dunbelievable @Crussian17 they are not.

@JulianLinStocks @Crussian17 Those securities could be other SAAS stocks lol

Mndy 3.6B market cap with 1.5b in cash and 750M in buyback here trading less than 1.5x rev. Gotta imagine buyback stabilizes the stock shortly if nothing else

The software pain will end due to one or a more of the following catalysts: Insider buying Aggressive margin expansion plans PE takeout Growth isn't the answer (even if the stocks may appear to sell off on decelerating growth). $MSFT $CRM $ADBE $HUBS $MNDY $WIX $GTLB $TEAM

@Midnight_Captl I can agree that NOW isn't *that* cheap yet but it must be said software besides $NOW is *much* cheaper already.

From our perspective, the pain in Software has only just begun The entire sector needs to rerate to more normalized PEs, and we’re extremely far away from that $NOW trades for 77x trailing, 32x fwd. that probably needs to be closer to 20x fwd looking at Meta/Nvda (so 30% more)

@nachunja does the push into solid GAAP profitability not represent shareholder value creation?

Harsh truth. Jack hasn’t created any shareholder value post-ZIRP era. In fact, he destroyed more capital than he created. It’s not to say he didn’t create cool, impactful products. He did. But shareholder value? Zip. Nil. None.

@Mikemccarthaaay did the lonely joke not hit for you? I liked the last season a lot but a lot of the value was definitely in the build-up to that one joke

Are we ready to admit last season of white lotus was painfully bad or are we still pretending ?

@EquityBrian conservative balance sheet is a big reason here. Value stocks typically have high leverage and negative growth. Both are opposites here.

I don’t understand the obsession with $ADBE Slowing growth, AI disruption risk, and a premium multiple. What am I missing? This looks like a textbook value trap.

The trading action today in $CRM was interesting. I have some suspicion that a lot of investors were in SaaS solely due to the opinion of a certain @akramsrazor and have bailed following his most recent commentary. I can't speak for him but I think he'll return to bullishness again. I like his takes, especially on $GTLB but fully expect to come back after bailing on CRM here. I am doubtful that Claude cowork (or any of the other vibes) pose real threat to Salesforce as the company is now delivering real agentic products while being deeply entrenched with customer data. The path to upside is simple here: drive operating leverage (which they already are doing) with GAAP margins rising from the current 21% towards 25% (year 1) and 30% (year 2, yes this is a bullish case but is actually feasible) and when the market finally realizes that this is still the high quality business that they used to think it was, stock re-rates to 20x earnings or around 7x sales - if not much higher.

@Naplestrader7 it was very overpriced 5 years ago.

@JulianLinStocks Down 71% over the past 5 years so not really a yield play

🚨 Is THIS the SAFEST 9.5% Yield in Preferred Stocks?🚨 $IIPR-PR-A: 9.00% Cumulative Preferred - Dividend covered 48x by AFFO 😱 - Debt/EBITDA just 1.3x (vs. peers 7x+) - Debt/Equity ~0.2x (peers often 8x) Way stronger metrics than most REIT preferreds. Yet $PFFA (big preferred ETF) owns ZERO—cannabis stigma? Safest high-yield preferred out there? Or am I missing something? $PFFA $IIPR Thoughts? 👇

I still like NLCP It has an even cleaner balance sheet and avoided investing in California No issues there. I like IIPR because it is cheaper, and I like IIPR.PR.A because it's the safest preferred I have seen and it yields 9.5% If NLCP had a preferred yielding 9.5% I would be all over that one too.

@JulianLinStocks I always thought $NLCP, New Lake Capital Partners was your favorite pick. Since that one is listed on OTC, I presume it will get a bigger bump once uplisted on US exchanges. What do you think of NLCP?

@PronkDaniel debt.

I've been running some DCFs on $FOUR. Based on their 3-yr guidance of $1B in free cash flow, the stock looks ridiculously mispriced. Even with a 15 P/FCF, it could produce a 42% CAGR from here... Why doesn't the market like this stock?

@Stonefoxcapital $IIPR looks more obvious IMO

$MSOS $CURLF $GTBIF huge cannabis news if true. MSOS was just at $7 and is a big buy here. Following his recent executive order seeking a reclassification of marijuana as a less dangerous drug, President Donald Trump has directed Attorney General Pam Bondi to issue a final ruling on rescheduling by the end of January, The Marijuana Herald reported.

@AlexBWashburn @CCM_Brett @chitchatstocks It is true that they will pay market rent, but only after leases expire. Between now and then, IIPR enjoys the excess yield while still being able to grow their portfolio for over a decade

@JulianLinStocks @CCM_Brett @chitchatstocks Solid idea. The one caveat, due to the current laws, cannabis companies have been forced to pay above market rents because landlords have in effect taken on legal risks. If Cannabis becomes fully legal tenants will pay market rent. Negative for Cash flows as a percent of NAV.

What should we talk about on this week's Investing Power Hour?

@irbezek @CCM_Brett "Though if you get all your cash back plus a decent return before 12 years, no problem." This is the point though. Stock yields over 14% right now. So "no problem" sounds right

Why doesn't $IIPR work from here?