Brian Coughlin

What’s your best under-$5B market cap idea right now? Bonus points if you explain the bull case.

Wrote up $BIDU about a year ago when it was stupid cheap and nobody cared. Stock’s nearly doubled since. I think there’s still a lot more here, especially on the chip side. coughlincap.com/p/baidu-is-und…

I’ve acknowledged JD was bad and CPNG has been disappointing so far. I’m not hiding from that. But you spam my replies acting like a 12-month stock chart is the final verdict on a 3-5 year thesis. Sometimes I’m wrong. Sometimes the stock just hasn’t worked yet. Those are not the same thing.

@EquityBrian other than JD in the past year or so, have you ever acknowledged having a pick that turned out to be wrong or bad?

Everyone wants the “next great AI winner” until it’s cheap, hated, and listed in China. $BABA

Oh I see…

@cronosbro Honestly I think $CSU is more attractive than $BIDU here… I get the sense you have limited knowledge of the company (meaning CSU).

@EquityBrian definitely a better pick than csu foe sure

@EquityBrian bruh you good? 🤣

Nothing ever happens…

Chinas Huawei can't access EUV. So they wrote their own scaling law. The leverage of US export controls erodes. Huawei just presented the Tau (τ) Scaling Law at IEEE ISCAS, a framework that replaces geometric transistor scaling with time-based optimization across devices, circuits, chips, and systems. Huawei is not trying to win the nanometer race anymore. They're redefining it. 381 chips designed and mass-produced over six years. Kirin chips with their new LogicFolding architecture ship this fall. Target by 2031: transistor density equivalent to 1.4nm processes - without EUV (ASML embargo still hits hard) Whether Tau Scaling delivers on that promise remains to be seen. But it shows one thing: US export controls cut Huawei off from cutting-edge lithography, and instead of hitting a wall, they built a parallel road. China's semiconductor independence isn't hypothetical anymore. It's shipping in phones, running AI workloads, and now has its own scaling law presented at one of the world's top circuit design conferences. If Huawei can close the performance gap through architecture instead of lithography, the entire leverage of US export controls erodes. The sanctions were designed to keep China two generations behind. Huawei is trying to make that metric irrelevant. h/t @AndrewCurran_ for finding this interesting blogarticle and @zephyr_z9 for the photo

$BABA under 130 is great deal IMO, sleeping giant.

@viggy_krishnan @TidefallCapital Most competitive market on earth. Drives a lot of innovation. Also why margins compress and the guys who survive are absolute killers.

$PDD Revenue growth rate 2023: 90% 2024: 59% 2025: 10% What went wrong here? China is tough but that's a pretty fast collapse given Temu growth It's under 5x PE 2026 with the cash removed now

The thing is the US doesn't necessarily need Iran's agreement to reach a peace agreement with Iran. It just needs the rest of us to agree that a "peace agreement" has been reached and move on, which let's be honest we've all long been ready to do.

@LogicalThesis 😂😂 wow I forgot about this as well

Forgot there's a cameo of Warren Buffett interviewing for the manager role in The Office Legend

@TidefallCapital They need to buyback stock and prove cash is real

@JonathanFKNeill Ty Jonathan

@EquityBrian Yes indeed. Absolute nonsense. Great piece on Baidu by the way. Thank you. JFKN

The market when a China headline drops that has nothing to do with any of the companies it’s selling off

@FirstSquawk Probably

Baghshian: Israel is undermining the region's security through its pursuit of implementing the Greater Israel plan and plotting conspiracies to drag the region into war

The hardest part of a bubble is watching idiots make more money than you