Juliette Declercq

10.9K posts

Juliette Declercq

@JulietteJDI

Founder #JDIresearch. Global #MacroStrategy: « The important is not to be the first to know but the first to understand ». 25y passion for investment & strategy

London Beigetreten Aralık 2011

1.2K Folgt24.2K Follower

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Juliette Declercq@JulietteJDI·27 Oca

A little heads-up 🥰: I’m ghosting X in 2026. Ten years of JDI Research flying solo, and we are standing strong on our own legs (thanks, independence!). But FinTwit? Let’s just say the magic’s faded. Want to keep up with my priceless market nuggets? Track me down on Bluesky perhaps one day on W or sign up at jdiresearch.com. I’ll continue to respect your inbox, I promise. My values and rules will always apply: 100% human words, 0% robot nonsense. And I'll continue to authentically change my mind when things change. This I believe constitutes true intelligence.

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Juliette Declercq@JulietteJDI·11h

@Tail__Risk Of course.

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The Fat Tail@Tail__Risk·1d

@JulietteJDI Are you reaffirming the opinion that the war is essentially "over"?

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Juliette Declercq@JulietteJDI·3d

The war is over ... now what? We laid it all out in last week's report. Reach out at business@jdiresearch.com

Juliette Declercq@JulietteJDI

JDI Research just published a new report "The Iran war is over ... the battle for disinflation has just begun" in which we come back to macro trends in the US, Europe and China to extrapolate financial trends. We build on our March 27th call to buy the dip in stocks and take stock of the inflation shock, will it turn into an inflation cycle? Which region is most vulnerable? Enjoy!

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Kate Wilton@KateWilton1·1d

And just like that, the very wealthiest party in the U.K. backed by foreign billionaires is supported by the very poorest members of society who dislike foreigners. You couldn’t make this shit up.

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Juliette Declercq@JulietteJDI·2d

@KobeissiLetter Payrolls data is a mess right now. Not to mention U3 which is flattered by the supply side. Look at real aggregate income if you want a clue on just how healthy labour market is.

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The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·2d

Something is off in the labor market: In February, US employers cut -448,000 jobs, the largest monthly decline since July 2020. Then, in March, US employers increased hiring by +655,000 MoM, the largest monthly increase on record, excluding the 2020 pandemic period. As a result, total hiring across the US economy rose to 5.55 million in March, the highest since February 2024. This pushed the hiring rate up +0.4 percentage points, to 3.5%, the highest since May 2024, but still below the 2017-2019 pre-pandemic average of 3.8% This is all despite massive layoff announcements occurring in the first 4 months of the year. Labor market data is showing conflicting signs.

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Juliette Declercq@JulietteJDI·2d

@KobeissiLetter From short-term supply side yes, but a lot of that will dissipate on a Hormuz reopening. In US, lots of arguments for long-term disinflation including incomes and AI adoption.

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The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·2d

Commodity inflation is surging: The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up to 141 points, the highest since February 2013. This index tracks 25 exchange-traded futures contracts across energy, metals, and agriculture. Energy accounts for the largest weighting, at 39%, followed by agriculture, at 27%, precious metals, at 16%, and industrial metals, at 13%. This index is now up +28% year-to-date and it has officially surpassed the 2022 energy crisis peak of 140 points. As a result, commodity prices are now on track for their first annual increase in 4 years. Inflation is back.

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Juliette Declercq@JulietteJDI·2d

@MaxBlumenthal Agreed. Trump is perfectly willing to sacrifice US reputation on the altar of his own ego. But what he can’t ignore is market and legislative forces. Gas over $4.50, the 30Y yield near 5%, Congress’s 60-day war limit… Soaring equities are the only thing giving him any runway.

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Max Blumenthal@MaxBlumenthal·2d

Trump’s abandonment of his harebrained “Project Freedom” was his third humiliation in a month, following his signing of a ceasefire after failing to achieve a single stated goal in Iran, and his unilateral extension of it after Iranian negotiators simply refused to appear in Islamabad While a majority of Americans tell pollsters they believe that Trump is mentally ill or unfit to govern, he’s blustering threats of renewed warfare that will only further decimate the remains of US bases in the region, and possibly collapse Gulf vassal states He has no cards to play But despite spending a lifetime in the sleazy culture of casinos, he doesn’t know when to fold em

The White House@WhiteHouse

“Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end... If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before.” - President Donald J. Trump 🇺🇸

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Juliette Declercq@JulietteJDI·3d

@luke_1977hk Hike!

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Luca@luke_1977hk·3d

@JulietteJDI What Japan could do to actually reverse it? And in an deflationary environment as you called, isn’t the YEN the number 1 beneficiary?

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Juliette Declercq@JulietteJDI·3d

Japan can’t intervene its way out of macro fundamentals. Those who read our December report know the Iran war is just another layer on an already toxic fiscal and monetary combo.

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Juliette Declercq@JulietteJDI·3d

@luke_1977hk Other way round. The yen is taking the strain of Japan's inflation risk. BoJ would need to pull its head out of the sand and assert credibility.

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Juliette Declercq@JulietteJDI·27 Nis

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Juliette Declercq@JulietteJDI·3d

@RealJessica Next step? China does to US AI what it did to European car manufacturing.

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Based Jessica@RealJessica·4d

Thank you Germany 🇩🇪and Britain 🇬🇧 for sacrificing your economies to save the planet. China appreciates you exporting your manufacturing to provide jobs for their citizens.

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Juliette Declercq@JulietteJDI·3d

@Ross__Hendricks Won't end well but you don't stand in front of a train. It does however create opportunities to play AI diffusion outside the US. China is producing competitive models with token costs that make US hyperscaler pricing look like a cartel.

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Ross Hendricks@Ross__Hendricks·3d

I repeat, the bubble is in the "e" not the "p" in today's PE ratios. The hucksters and talking heads will, as always, fail to realize until it's too late. But it's a very simple set up. Hyperscalers give OpenAI/Anthropic cash to pay for hyperscaler computing capacity. That cash then circles right back around into the "earnings" of the hyperscalers. Meanwhile, free cash flow for the group has officially gone negative and they're raising record amounts of debt (on and off balance sheet) to plug the gaping holes in their financial statements. So yes, please keep telling me about how $META $AMZN $GOOG and $MSFT are "cheap" on PE ratios where the E is a total mirage. Let us know how it ends (hint: not well, bob!)

Jessica Lessin@Jessicalessin

Good lord. Half-ish of the cloud backlog at Microsoft, Oracle, Google and Amazon is OpenAI and Anthropic????

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Dario Perkins@darioperkins·30 Nis

This is going to annoy people (sorry...) but Powell is gonna be remembered as a hero at the Fed. Got inflation back down, delivered a soft landing, and stood up to enormous political pressure. Probably leaving at just the right time 🤣

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Jamie Bonkiewicz@JamieBonkiewicz·29 Nis

If both the Pope and the King of England are telling you to get your shit together, you need to get your shit together.

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Juliette Declercq@JulietteJDI·28 Nis

@rohit_ah I am much better at surfing but can't surf in London so I run for endurance training but clearly running is NOT my forte !!

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Rohit Ahuja@rohit_ah·28 Nis

@JulietteJDI 37 min 5K? Juliette, that's not running—that's a brisk power walk with commitment issues😜 Proud of you for showing up. In my book, anyone who laces up instead of doomscrolling wins the real race. Keep crushing it (or at least gently nudging it forward)

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Juliette Declercq@JulietteJDI·28 Nis

I run my 5k in 37mns ... but I am proud to be part of those who get out of bed and do it! Plus I have hope I'll make progress 😜

Sahil Bloom@SahilBloom

The trend of telling people they can’t celebrate their marathon if it’s not done in a certain time is dumb. It’s hard to move yourself 26.2 miles at any pace. Period. Anyone that takes that on and finishes is impressive in my book. In all things in life, run your own race.

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Juliette Declercq@JulietteJDI·28 Nis

Proof!

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Seb Johnson@SebJohnsonUK·27 Nis

Europe dominates the list of richest countries. The US ranks as 16th while the UK is not even in the top 20. This is a new ranking which measures, not just GDP, but how wealth concretely translates into the daily life of the ordinary citizen. GDP per capita is generally a terrible metric, as it assumes national output is evenly shared across the population.