I estimate we’re somewhere in the Jan-Feb 2000 melt up moment
The last stretch will be violent on the up and downside
zerohedge@zerohedge
*SK HYNIX SHARES RISE AS MUCH AS 11%, SK SQUARE UP 14%
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Ross Hendricks
34.9K posts
Ross Hendricks
@Ross__Hendricks
Actionable investment ideas at the https://t.co/neffEMdrR9
Great State of Texas Katılım Haziran 2018
1.3K Takip Edilen32.5K Takipçiler
Damn that was a record TACO
Now measuring the half life in minutes
HFI Research@HFI_Research
This is so funny.
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@zoomer_tate Can’t put too much stock in the overnight futures, it’s mostly algos
Let’s see what the humans do tomorrow morning
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@Ross__Hendricks there it is. so its not an escort, and boats will prob not try to go through?
so we are stuck in limbo, thus why oil hasn't rallied?
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Hard to believe #oil is down 2% on Trumps insane plan to play chicken in the Strait of Hormuz .. had to get long again
GIF
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@Ross__Hendricks in that case, why would anyone ever dump their oil? or bid stocks?
feels like this could be the trigger (if it happened), for doomsday again
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@zoomer_tate Seems pretty clear to me that they’re not going to willingly give up control of the Strait absent a comprehension peace deal.
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@Ross__Hendricks there can't be any way iran is actually going to shoot? i mean, the market cant be that dumb?
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Yep, this is likely how the next leg of escalation kicks off
Chris Rollins@ThePowerAudit
This is a savvy legal move by Trump. May 1: War Powers letter formally ends hostilities, preserves force posture, asserts Article II constitutional authority. May 3: "Project Freedom" announced as a humanitarian operation, not military. Monday: US Navy escorts neutral commercial ships through Hormuz under freedom of navigation rights. If Iran fires on it: that is Iran starting a new conflict. Trump is responding defensively, not attacking. No new War Powers clock starts because the US did not initiate hostilities. Iran did.
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Ross Hendricks retweetledi
Notice how many of the news orgs are leaving out this part of the quote:
"If this process is disrupted, we will deal with it by force"
In 5 hours, the US military, unilaterally is attempting to break the blockade WITHOUT Iranian involvement.
It's an escalation.
Not progress.
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Pretty risky move
Can’t help but think is bait for Iran to strike US ships and thus provide the pretext to restart hostilities
unusual_whales@unusual_whales
JUST IN: Trump says the US will launch “Project Freedom” to escort stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz.
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Ross Hendricks retweetledi
BREAKING: A source close to Ghalibaf says Iran has begun initial military actions to lift the US naval blockade.
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Did Team Trump get long #oil futures at the close on Friday?
Nathan Guttman@nathanguttman
President Trump tells me in a brief phone conversation: The new Iranian proposal is not acceptable. “It’s not acceptable to me. I’ve studied it, I’ve studied everything – it’s not acceptable.”
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@twiggysays Yes, that's what happens during manias. See all of financial history for example.
Remember the Metaverse?
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@Ross__Hendricks C’mon man. the best infrastructure companies in history, best finance departments. Best managed. Best companies at doing this ‘tech depreciation thing - EVER. They know more about demand / scale than any companies. THEY ARE NOW STUPID? ALL collectively lost their shit?
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Few... far too few
At some point in the next 2 - 3 years, a whole lot o' tech bagholders are gonna become painfully familiar with how depreciation works in highly capital-intensive businesses
Convexititties, CFA@convexititties
This guy misses the point. It’s not about private investments. Hyperscaler revenue from new capacity books immediately. The capex behind it gets spread over ~6 years of depreciation. While capex is growing, EPS gets flattered because the expense lags the revenue by years. When capex flatlines, revenue grows slower and depreciation keeps catching up. That’s when EPS gets pinched. Enjoy the honeymoon period.
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@Ross__Hendricks To be fair I think his point is that right now stocks will go up because of this fact, regardless of the sleight of hand that everyone knows exists.
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@zoomer_tate It all depends on where oil trades IMO ... if we stay above $100 or head higher it's only a matter of time before that filters into slower growth and lower stock prices. But I continue to avoid shorting anything while we're making new highs.
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@Ross__Hendricks Ross, do you think the whole "covid type crash" that we expected is no longer happening?
since we recover V'd so hard? I understand we will see a recession at some point in the next 2 years but the crash has been averted for now?
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@Ross__Hendricks Good Software companies will rip the benefits.
They will get AI, they will get compute , stayed asset light and they just lowered their PE to the ground.
Gross margins above 80% while the hypers get depreciated to the ground.
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I myself once dabbled in nihilism ... not in Nam, of course.
Boring_Business@BoringBiz_
Trump’s advice on how to deal with adversity in your life Nothing matters
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Ross Hendricks retweetledi
Oil market one month from crunch point as global stockpiles dwindle
Traders warn of further jump in prices and ‘huge pain’ as economies cut consumption
#oott ft.com/content/b26ba4…
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