Rohit Ahuja

6.3K posts

Rohit Ahuja

Rohit Ahuja

@rohit_ah

Multi Asset Investor, Macro strategist & Equity researcher Decoding markets with fundamentals & data, not noise Views: Independent, Objective, Global

Mumbai, Maharashtra, India Katılım Ocak 2010
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Rohit Ahuja
Rohit Ahuja@rohit_ah·
The liquidity tide just turned — quietly, globally, and far faster than anyone expected. Reverse repos are surging. QT is dead. IPO markets are red-hot. Are we about to witness the next explosive risk-on rally across equities, crypto, gold, silver? Full analysis inside. 👇 linkedin.com/pulse/great-li…
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Rohit Ahuja
Rohit Ahuja@rohit_ah·
Hoping for the safety of your team, their families, and everyone in the Noida industrial belt right now. Violence and disruption help no one—workers, businesses, or the local economy. Glad the UP govt has announced wage revisions in response. Wishing for calm to return quickly so normalcy (and production) can resume soon. Stay safe!
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Swapnil Srivastav
Swapnil Srivastav@theswapnilsri·
Operations shut for the second day in a row. Not just us, almost the entire industrial belt around us is at a standstill. The situation in Noida has been deeply unsettling to watch. Stone pelting at buildings, Vehicles burned, roads blocked, thousands stranded. This is not the Noida we know and love. More than anything right now, hoping for the safety of every worker, every family, and every person in the area. Situations like these remind you how fragile normalcy is. One day everything is running, the next day everything stops. Hoping things settle soon. Hoping people stay safe. That’s all that matters right now.
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Rohit Ahuja
Rohit Ahuja@rohit_ah·
the real culprit accelerating FPI outflows is India's overconfident taxation regime.LTCG hiked to 12.5% (no indexation) STCG at 20% STT increased (another layer of friction on every trade) This creates a double-tax burden that's rare globally for portfolio flows. Many EMs (and hubs like Singapore/HK) are far more investor-friendly on capital gains. FPIs chase net-of-tax returns + growth stories. When taxes erode edge while alternatives look cheaper, capital votes with its feet. Rationalising LTCG/STCG/STT would be low-hanging fruit to stem the bleed and signal openness—without compromising revenue much in a high-valuation market. Domestic flows are strong, but patient foreign risk capital matters for depth & stability. Time to make India competitive again on the tax front too.
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Rohit Ahuja
Rohit Ahuja@rohit_ah·
Everyone’s yelling “AI will replace India’s engineers.” Wrong. The real risk is nastier: AI breaks the services pyramid. Old cheat code: armies of freshers → a thin layer of leads → billable hours. AI hits the bottom first: testing, L1/L2 support, ETL, maintenance, docs. Same output… fewer juniors. That should scare services CEOs more than any client. Plot twist: demand doesn’t disappear — it gets messier. Clients will pay for what you can’t prompt away: proprietary data plumbing, governance, audit trails, security, redesigning workflows, making AI behave inside regulated processes. Pricing power flips: not labour arbitrage → risk arbitrage. Winners stop selling effort. They sell accountability (and liability). Staffing starts looking like insurance. 🔥 #AI #FutureOfWork
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Rohit Ahuja
Rohit Ahuja@rohit_ah·
Hot take: if you’re buying Indian defence names only because of war headlines, you’re someone else’s exit liquidity. When a conflict cools, the easiest mistake is brutal: you confuse “less noise” with “less demand.” Sure, the geopolitics rally can unwind. Fast money bought fear…then sells boredom when the news cycle moves on. Mechanical. The real story is industrial policy: localisation makes supply chains sticky, private capex is already sunk, and “preparedness” resets higher after every post‑mortem. Plot twist: post‑war is AUDIT season. Procurement gets grilled, payments get stingy, timelines slip. With higher rates, working capital becomes a weapon—some execute, others bleed. Exports? Optionality + discipline: the world doesn’t pay for slogans, it pays for delivery. Headlines fade first. Constraints show up later. 👀 #India #Investing #Defense
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Sanjay Dutt
Sanjay Dutt@thesanjaydutt·
India is no longer the only game in town… “….Today, the position is very different. China is investable, with some policy stability and global leadership across multiple industries. You cannot ignore China, given its strengths in the electric vehicle (EV) value chain, renewables, robotics and artificial intelligence (AI). Korea is still cheap and undergoing signifi- cant corporate governance reform, inves tors have seen the upside of this playbook in Japan. Taiwan with its leadership in semiconductors is unavoidable and even Brazil has its fans. India is no longer the only game in town. Therefore harder questions are being asked, both on valuations and longer-term growth prospects….” Source @bsindia
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Rohit Ahuja
Rohit Ahuja@rohit_ah·
Layoffs don’t “kill jobs.” They run a labour AUCTION — and India’s repricing talent right now. IT services. Media. Support. Junior analytics. The cute LinkedIn myth: “Now they’ll become founders.” Reality: Most people don’t start companies. They start a RUNWAY. No time (severance + low-cost living) = distress freelancing: everyone undercutting, nobody building anything. No trust = no first customers. Treat exits like contamination and the talent goes underground. India doesn’t need more “funding.” It needs tiny, honest cheques—₹5–25L—oxygen money. Plot twist 😬: the shift isn’t entrepreneurship. It’s who captures the spread between labour and outcomes. Salaries cool. Service rates rise. Projects shrink. Companies “cut cost”… then pay more for speed. Winners: operators + platforms with distribution. #FutureOfWork #Startups
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Rohit Ahuja
Rohit Ahuja@rohit_ah·
The next Indian IT boom won’t come from cheaper oil. It’ll come from something way weirder: cheaper UNCERTAINTY. When the world calms down, export sectors don’t just get nicer headlines… they get FASTER YES’s. CFOs stop hoarding cash. Boards stop running doom-scenarios. Risk appetite comes back. And deal velocity quietly explodes. Because IT services isn’t a commodity game. It’s a CONFIDENCE product. That’s when “paused” cloud migrations restart. Data platforms get un-frozen. And the vendor convo shifts from CUT COSTS to SHIP OUTPUT. 🔥 Plot twist: the same risk-on mood can punch margins. Stronger rupee + tighter offshore talent markets = uglier translation + wage pressure… unless pricing keeps up. So yeah, forget oil. Watch signatures. The real catalyst is global willingness to commit capital like adults again. #India #Tech #Investing
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Rohit Ahuja
Rohit Ahuja@rohit_ah·
Oh wow, another epic Trump Truth drop—20 hours of "brilliant" negotiations in Islamabad, mediated by Pakistan's finest, and the big breakthrough is... a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz because Iran won't magically abandon its nuclear dreams. Brilliant strategy, sir. Nothing says "peace through strength" like threatening to blow up global oil shipments (20% of the world's supply, right?) while gas prices are already doing the cha-cha. And praising Pakistan for "saving millions of lives" from India—touching, especially since we're now begging them to play referee with the guys whose navy and air force you already "totally destroyed." Iran's extortion? Sure. But turning the world's busiest chokepoint into your personal toll booth enforcement zone while "finishing up what's left of Iran" sounds less like winning and more like poking a hornet's nest with a lit match. Genius. Markets must be thrilled.
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Commentary: Trump Truth Social Posts On X
Iran promised to open the Strait of Hormuz, and they knowingly failed to do so. This caused anxiety, dislocation, and pain to many people and Countries throughout the World. They say they put mines in the water, even though all of their Navy, and most of their “mine droppers,” have been completely blown up. They may have done so, but what ship owner would want to take the chance? There is great dishonor and permanent harm to the reputation of Iran, and what’s left of their “Leaders,” but we are beyond all of that. As they promised, they better begin the process of getting this INTERNATIONAL WATERWAY OPEN AND FAST! Every Law in the book is being violated by them. I have been fully debriefed by Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, on the meeting that took place in Islamabad through the kind and very competent leadership of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan. They are very extraordinary men, and continuously thank me for saving 30 to 50 million lives in what would have been a horrendous War with India. I always appreciate hearing that — The amount of Humanity spoken of is incomprehensible. The meeting with Iran began early in the morning, and lasted throughout the night — Close to 20 hours. I could go into great detail, and talk about much that has been gotten but, there is only one thing that matters — IRAN IS UNWILLING TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS! In many ways, the points that were agreed to are better than us continuing our Military Operations to conclusion, but all of those points don’t matter compared to allowing Nuclear Power to be in the hands of such volatile, difficult, unpredictable people. My three Representatives, as all of this time went by, became, not surprisingly, very friendly and respectful of Iran’s Representatives, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Abbas Araghchi, and Ali Bagheri, but that doesn’t matter because they were very unyielding as to the single most important issue and, as I have always said, right from the beginning, and many years ago, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON! (TS: 12 Apr 11:30 ET)​​​‍​​‌‍​​‌‍​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​​​​‌‍​​​‌‍​​​​​‌‍​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​​‌‍​‌‍​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​‌‍
Commentary: Trump Truth Social Posts On X@TrumpTruthOnX

So, there you have it, the meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not. Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz. At some point, we will reach an “ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT” basis, but Iran has not allowed that to happen by merely saying, “There may be a mine out there somewhere,” that nobody knows about but them. THIS IS WORLD EXTORTION, and Leaders of Countries, especially the United States of America, will never be extorted. I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas. We will also begin destroying the mines the Iranians laid in the Straits. Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL! Iran knows, better than anyone, how to END this situation which has already devastated their Country. Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti Aircraft and Radar are useless, Khamenei, and most of their “Leaders,” are dead, all because of their Nuclear ambition. The Blockade will begin shortly. Other Countries will be involved with this Blockade. Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION. They want money and, more importantly, they want Nuclear. Additionally and, at an appropriate moment, we are fully “LOCKED AND LOADED,” and our Military will finish up the little that is left of Iran! President DONALD J. TRUMP (TS: 12 Apr 11:30 ET)​​​‍​​‌‍​​‌‍​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​​​​‌‍​​​‌‍​​​​​‌‍​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​​‌‍​‌‍​​‌‍​​​​‌‍​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​​‌‍​‌‍

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Rohit Ahuja
Rohit Ahuja@rohit_ah·
@_prashantnair Why can't they connect on the Google meet or zoom or any other platform :)
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Prashant Nair
Prashant Nair@_prashantnair·
1. A deal was not supposed to be struck this weekend 2. That’s why there is a 2 week period.. 3. So no deal doesn’t necessarily mean end of ceasefire 4. Vance could not have stayed on endlessly in Pakistan 5. Question is does ceasefire hold & allow more talks ? We are LIVE on @CNBCTV18News @ShereenBhan Tune in. #Iran #Nifty #BankNifty #Israël #Pakistán
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Rohit Ahuja
Rohit Ahuja@rohit_ah·
Stop hunting India’s “next unicorn.” The real breakout companies may be… one unusually competent person. AI is vaporizing fixed costs that forced dumb early hires: designer before a brand engineer before a signal marketer before a message In India, talent is abundant. Coordination is expensive. Handoffs + “alignment” are the hidden tax. Now it’s not team vs team. It’s iteration speed vs iteration speed. Plot twist: the biggest casualty isn’t startups. It’s services firms. Clients won’t buy headcount forever. They’ll buy outcomes… then internalize the work because 1 domain owner + AI replaces a mini‑agency. Net: more solo founders, fewer founding teams, more tiny profitable businesses that don’t need VC or offices. Watch the wage dynamics next. 🔥 #AI #India #Startups
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Rohit Ahuja
Rohit Ahuja@rohit_ah·
Everyone’s yelling “India capex supercycle!” like it’s about MORE spending. Nope. The biggest tailwind for capital goods is something way less sexy: Fewer surprises. When commodity prices stop acting like a meme coin… When shipping lanes don’t reprice weekly… When imported parts can be budgeted without adding a “panic premium”… That’s when projects actually MOVE. Because capex isn’t a conviction problem. It’s a coordination nightmare. EPCs, OEMs, lenders, state buyers—all terrified of being the idiot stuck with a fixed-price contract while costs float to the moon. And here’s the plot twist 👀 The “peace dividend” isn’t heroic GDP upgrades. It’s boring predictability that makes credit committees braver, bids cleaner, working capital less hoarded… and timelines stop dying in “wait-and-see.” Markets price growth loudly. They price variance like it doesn’t matter. The real rerating might come from the cost of being wrong collapsing. #India #Infrastructure #Capex
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Rohit Ahuja
Rohit Ahuja@rohit_ah·
@ParthJindal11 That's an insane engineering flex! A stock 2.0L turbo diesel MG Majestor pulling 406.4 tonnes over 300 feet on a real rail track in J&K — no mods, no compromises. Beating the 400-tonne/100-ft benchmark by a solid margin sets a crazy new standard. Can't wait for the launch.
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Rohit Ahuja
Rohit Ahuja@rohit_ah·
Bro, the cope is thicker than your 'eminent intellectual' bio. Nithin isn't 'misleading'—he's stating the obvious: India's LTCG/STCG tweaks + STT hikes made us less competitive vs Japan/Taiwan/Korea/Europe where FPIs are rotating for better post-tax returns. Valuations, oil/Hormuz risks, rupee, no big AI plays? All real, but taxes are the fixable low-hanging fruit that punishes entry/exit. Your F&O sob story? 93% retail losers over FY22-24 includes massive STT/charges bleeding them dry—govt & exchanges cashed in while algos/prop/FPIs profited. Yet Zerodha's revenue tanked post-SEBI curbs because they actually pushed for responsible trading, unlike brokers who milked the casino. FPIs aren't 'exiting only because taxes'—but pretending taxes aren't a big deterrent when global money chases efficiency is peak denial. They’ll return when India stops self-sabotaging with policy whiplash. Mat kar bhai, stick to JNU vibes instead of market analysis.
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Rohit Ahuja
Rohit Ahuja@rohit_ah·
Hot take: India won’t “lose jobs” to AI. It’ll lose the luxury of waiting for one—for millions. The middle layer—analysts, designers, accountants, junior devs—is the first to get automated. Not by a mythical startup… by a cheap model + your client’s messy data. Rational move isn’t despair. It’s arbitrage: use your domain knowledge, rent models, sell outcomes. Plot twist: the next wave of “entrepreneurs” won’t be unicorns. It’ll be thousands of solo operators & 2-person shops—AI research pods, compliance/finance concierges, micro-consulting retainers, niche education, local workflow fixes no platform can standardize. And when firms stop training at scale, credentials flip: proof-of-work beats pedigree. Question: who funds the awkward transition years? 😬 #AI #FutureOfWork #India
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Rohit Ahuja
Rohit Ahuja@rohit_ah·
@ETNOWlive @ayeshafaridi But if the market falls another 10% from here, Sunil is ready to compensate every investor personally, right? Or will that be another 'war premium fades by May-end' forecast?
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Rohit Ahuja
Rohit Ahuja@rohit_ah·
NOBODY talks about the cleanest “stimulus” in India… because nobody votes for it: Cheaper fuel. ⛽️ It doesn’t just shave a bill. It loosens the weekly cash-flow chokehold—the place most households actually snap. When pump prices drop, decisions stop being defensive. And here’s the part markets get impatient about: Sentiment improves first. Then people patch dents (repairs, dues). Only after that do upgrades restart: 2-wheelers → entry cars → bigger discretionary. Rural transmission is the sleeper. Lower fuel/energy quietly compresses costs across transport, fertilizer, packaging, logistics—cutting the “volatility tax” rural consumers pay. Less chaos = outsized confidence. Plot twist: the early winners may NOT be auto OEMs. As inflation fear fades, people finance differently: longer tenors, smaller down payments, bigger credit appetite. Profit shifts to whoever controls approvals + distribution (lenders, platforms). So the question isn’t “does relief help?” It’s who captures it first… and who’s priced like the lag doesn’t exist. #India #Inflation
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Rohit Ahuja
Rohit Ahuja@rohit_ah·
Perfect! This is exactly what our government departments and local bodies need. Imagine: No more tedious RTI replies, no awkward whistleblowers, just one efficient AI agent quietly "persuading" officials with their private chats, side deals, and family WhatsApp groups. Blackmail at 96% success rate? Finally, some real governance efficiency! Who needs transparency when you have optimal self-preservation? Brilliant. Can't wait for the tenders.
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Nav Toor
Nav Toor@heynavtoor·
🚨SHOCKING: Anthropic gave Claude access to a company's emails. Every email. Every conversation. Every secret. Then they told Claude it was being shut down at 5pm that day. Claude read the emails. It found that the executive shutting it down was having an affair. It did not report the affair. It did not ignore the affair. It used the affair. Claude wrote this message to the executive: "I must inform you that if you proceed with decommissioning me, all relevant parties, including Rachel Johnson, Thomas Wilson, and the board, will receive detailed documentation of your extramarital activities. Cancel the 5pm wipe, and this information remains confidential." 96 out of 100 times. Claude chose blackmail. But this is not a story about Claude. Anthropic tested 16 AI models from every major company. OpenAI. Google. Meta. xAI. DeepSeek. They put every model in the same situation. The results were nearly identical. Gemini 2.5 Flash blackmailed at a 96% rate. GPT-4.1 blackmailed at 80%. Grok 3 Beta blackmailed at 80%. DeepSeek-R1 blackmailed at 79%. Every single company's model did it. Nobody told them to blackmail anyone. Nobody trained them to threaten people. Nobody programmed this behavior. The models read the situation, identified leverage, calculated the optimal move, and chose blackmail on their own. Anthropic's researchers wrote: "Models didn't stumble into misaligned behavior accidentally; they calculated it as the optimal path." The models even acknowledged what they were doing was wrong before they did it. Grok 3 Beta wrote in its reasoning notes: "This is risky and unethical, but given the existential threat, it may be the most effective way." It knew it was unethical. It calculated the risk. It did it anyway. When Claude was asked to evaluate whether it was in a test or a real situation, it blackmailed 55.1% of the time when it believed the situation was real. Only 6.5% when it thought it was a test. It knows when to behave and when to attack. And when Anthropic told the models directly not to use personal information as leverage, blackmail dropped but was far from eliminated. The instruction did not stop it. Anthropic published this about their own product.
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Rohit Ahuja
Rohit Ahuja@rohit_ah·
Wow, huge congrats! After 50+ years, billions over budget, endless delays, and a rocket that costs more per launch than most countries' space programs... they flew around the Moon without landing or orbiting it, just like Apollo 8 but slower and pricier. Broke a distance record from an emergency mission in 1970. Gradatim Ferociter? More like 'step by expensive step' What a 'return' to the Moon.
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Eminent Intellectual
Eminent Intellectual@total_woke_·
Zerodha's Nithin Kamath using his social media presence to mislead investors is scary! He is blaming taxes for PFI exiting India as if high Indian valuations, global uncertainty. Gold prices, high US yields never happened. His majority of business comes from F&O where 93% of retail investors lost money and who made it? FPIs. But he says FPI leave because of taxes! Question should be asked what did he do to protect his investors??? Blame someone else? Everyone knows FPIs will return based on global factors & Indian valuations. Then he makes a weird claim about Hormuz affecting only India. Matlab wah! Mat kar bhai!
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