LonghornTXFan

@Joyce_Karam @citrinowicz never wants to address this issue

No matter how this war ends, the level of Arab Gulf mistrust/public anger at Iran regime is a new reality for Tehran to reckon with. Arabic social media tells a very different story than English posts. There is no going back to pre-Feb. 28.

@citrinowicz TDS

Another example of how poorly the administration understands Iranian behavior. Allowing tankers to pass doesn’t signal de-escalation — it reinforces Iran’s narrative that it controls the straits, and that no one else does. That perception matters just as much as the physical reality. Notably, these weren’t even U.S.-linked tankers, but Pakistani ones, a calculated move that lets Iran demonstrate selective control without directly confronting Washington. This isn’t about “giving something to Trump” or scoring domestic political points in the U.S. It’s about Iran steadily reinforcing its leverage and showing it can regulate global shipping flows and translate that control into political and economic gains. #iran

@Helyeh_Doutaghi @AJEnglish This person is based in the US by the way. Beware

In an interview with @AJEnglish, I argued that the attack on Iran University of Science and Technology (IUST), institution that serves as a centre for the country’s R&D of indigenous industrial development, is rooted in the fact that Iran wages its defense against US imperial aggression and Israeli colonial domination precisely through relaying on its homegrown industries. Indeed, they represent the sole material force capable of imposing tangible costs on the empire. I further note that, in contrast to US and Israeli forces, Iran has demonstrated a good-faith effort/issued advance notice prior to any potential operation, an act indicative of an absence of intent to target civilians. Additionally, any form of assistance to US military operations by any university, including contractual relationships with the Department of Defense or the Pentagon, logistical support, intelligence sharing, or any material aid facilitating US aggression, may, in Iran's view, render such entities or objects liable to lawful targeting, subject to the customary principles of proportionality and military necessity.

@Helyeh_Doutaghi Account based in the United States by the way

Today was one of the most horrifying days of my life as an academic. Walking through Iran University of Science and Technology, a top-ranked public university in Iran, I was struck by the devastation. Only last month, this campus was alive with students, bustling between classrooms. Now, parts of the campus lie in ruins, classrooms shattered, hallways choked with dust and shattered glass. I saw the offices of professors burned. A newly renovated building, where students gathered for programs, for socializing, for life, destructed. One student, tearfully, told me: “My professor’s office was still burning a little. That’s where I used to wait for office hours. To ask questions. To appeal my grade.” This is the same university that launched Iran’s Omid and Zafar 2 satellites, symbols of homegrown technological achievement. A week ago, one of its professors was assassinated. Yesterday, they bombed it. From sanctions to targeted killings, to the bombing of research centers and universities, there’s a clear pattern: de-development & de-industrialisation/ the systematic dismantling of a nation’s indigenous development, its industrial base, its capacity to stand on its own. We will never forget that as the American and Zionist war criminals blatantly target universities, schools, hospitals/ assassinating professors and killing children, and after 2 years or genocice, western intellectuals are still debating whether or not to pass a symbolic, non-enforceable BDS resolution. Photos taken by me, full report incoming.

@Decentrali5ed @IranSpec Why are you in Australia if you love the Islamic republic?

@IranSpec 92% 😂 more like maybe 2% of brainwashed Iranians by Iran-international news channel support regime change by USA and Israel 🤣

The thing is. I’m seriously starting to believe the U.S could pull off a grounds operation on the Iranian mainland. Possibly reaching Tehran by September-October 2026. It’s different if Iraq, Afghanistan or Pakistan invaded Iran, then millions of Iranians would fight and unite. The U.S though? The worlds freest country? The country who sent Khamenei to the depths of hell? Remember, 92% of Iranians hate the Islamic Republic with a deep passion. I personally know Iranians who printed photos of Khomeini & Khamenei and put it on toilet paper.

@gbrew24 Ground troops would equal their end. Be real

All things being equal, the leadership is probably ready for this war to end, as sufficient costs have been imposed and a strategic victory--demonstrated dominance over Hormuz--has been obtained. But US troops on Iranian soil offers the IRGC the opportunity to kill Americans and impose an even greater cost. So it's possible they aren't entirely opposed to the idea of a US ground component.

@SpencerGuard Don’t tell any of this to @citrinowicz

What could possibly be the U.S. options in Iran? Most people jump from today to a full-scale ground invasion to seize Tehran, secure nuclear material by force, and destroy a supposed million-man army. That is shallow thinking. 🧵 President Trump has signaled a 10-day pause on energy infrastructure strikes (now extended to April 6). We are days into that timeline. The real questions are not just what has been done, but what options remain.

@VadimStrizheus How much are they paying you

Day 2 of using Hermes Agent ⚡️ THIS THING IS SOO COOL!! set up all of my telegram topics, transferred all of my data over. Hermes feels smarter, smoother, and better than OpenClaw.

@DavidM_Friedman Danny is a known shill for the IRGC

I don’t buy any of this — a lot of think tank doublespeak that ignores some basic realities: 1. Iran is dramatically weaker now in every single relevant category of threat. 2. The US and Israel have destroyed large quantities of weapons and launchers, along with defense infrastructure and factories, research facilities and human capital. 3. The war has united the US and Israel with moderate Arab nations against radical Islamists, strengthening an important ongoing alliance. 4. With the internet down and the streets filled with armed thugs, regime change may not be imminent but it is likely inevitable. Comparing this to the facts and circumstances prior to 28 February, there is no doubt that the free world is better off now. Only a military “academic” could see things so differently.

@BradGroux @AnthropicAI @claudeai @GitHubCopilot My Claw is telling me it can't use Codex for subagents. Is this true?

Over the weekend I'll be completely removing @AnthropicAI and @claudeai from my OpenClaw and Agentic workstreams (both API and Max subscriptions). I encourage everyone to do the same. @GitHubCopilot Pro+ is my new orchestrator, and ChatGPT 5.4 and Codex 5.3 are my new workhorses.

@citrinowicz C alone will cause this war not to end. How do you miscalculate Washington so bad, Danny? A is totally incorrect as well.

“Crying Wolf” on the Iran Issue A. While the ultimate outcome of this conflict remains uncertain, one trend is already becoming clearer: the likelihood of a sustained, large-scale U.S. military re-engagement in the Gulf is diminishing. This reflects the growing costs borne by the United States, the broader impact on the global economy, and potential shifts in domestic political priorities in Washington. B. For Israel, there is a real risk that this campaign, particularly if the Iranian regime endures will prove to be a double-edged sword, potentially undermining both the legitimacy and feasibility of future military action against Iran. C. If the conflict ends with the regime intact, Iran will almost certainly seek to rebuild its conventional capabilities and may, at a minimum, reassess the benefits of advancing toward a nuclear weapons capability. D. This raises a critical question: what will be the future capacity for coordinated U.S.-Israeli action in a renewed confrontation? At present, while Iran’s conventional military buildup constitutes a serious challenge, it does not amount to an existential threat. Moreover, there is no clear indication that Iran has crossed the nuclear threshold even under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and in the aftermath of the 12 days war. E. It is therefore possible that this joint campaign has come too early. Should Iran, under future leadership, decide to accelerate its nuclear weapons, it may prove significantly more difficult to mobilize U.S. support for another military effort aimed at preventing nuclearization. #IranWar‌

@polphiloecon @TallDave7 @NoahCRothman but he lacks any knowledge of Washington. That is his weakness.

@TallDave7 @NoahCRothman One of the most experienced Israeli Iran experts:

The verdict from some quarters is in: The war is “quickly becoming a disaster.” The sooner Washington acknowledges its defeat, the better... That dour outlook seems wholly divorced from an objective appraisal of the war in its fourth week.

@citrinowicz You should be expecting us to shut down the Strait for a prolonged time to bleed out Iran. Sorry Danny - those regime checks may not be clearing here in a couple months 😂😂

We can probably skip the waiting. In the next 10 days, Iran will: Not surrender Not accept the 15-point framework Not give up control over the Strait of Hormuz Continue strikes toward Israel and Gulf states That leaves the administration with three options: Keep negotiating, only to realize again that Iran isn’t backing down, and then decide whether to soften terms to get a deal Escalate militarily like attempting to seize Kharg Island or disputed islands near the Strait, a move that would prolong the conflict and trigger a sharper Iranian response (and Tehran is ready for this option based on Ghalibaf tweets) Decide to end the campaign, or extend the ultimatum yet again Either way, we are entering another ten days of attrition and During this window, Trump will likely face a defining choice: escalate further, disengage, or push for a negotiated agreement. #iran

@sonofnariman With no Air Force they will be massacred. Please do not wish for this for the IRGC

I can't believe that the US is actually considering a ground invasion of Iran. You have to understand that the IRGC hasn't just been preparing for this day - they've been wishing for it. Why? Because it will finally let them fight the US on their own terms. On their own turf.

@loktar00 Be careful with who you trust..

Hermes is so good. I have it writing audio books for me, creating daily news/yt/hn updates, researching topics I might find interesting and giving me updates. It recommended creating an rss endpoint so I could just subscribe via podcast apps. Oh... and it controls my lights! haha I know I haven't even scratched the surface of what it can do.

@ziwenxu_ What do you mean lol

@LonghornTXFan89 No feedback on this one 🤣

As a founder, What do you prefer? 1. OpenClaw 2. Hemers Agent 3. Claude Cowork

@sin_management @ziwenxu_ depending on your use case - beware of trusting your set up to folks I wouldn't have lunch with

@LonghornTXFan89 @ziwenxu_ I hear you ...but it is just noise. SIGNAL > NOISE

@tacodirt @TheDeadDistrict are you really trying to claim victory by saying a small piece of projectile maybe kissed a tail flap? lol 10,000 hit targets and counting sir..

@TheDeadDistrict The blast happened at the tail of the aircraft. There is fragmentation radius that occurs. It was definitely hit with projectiles.

Detonation of an Iranian surface-to-air missile directly behind an F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighter jet. It appears that all fragments passed by the aircraft without causing any damage.

@moonplxx @hashurtag Neither of those were hits tho..

@hashurtag 😭😭😂

Wow! Flying very low and a flush hit! Can someone confirm?

@hashurtag neither were hits lol