Max Anderson

$200 BILLION IS ENOUGH TO: - Double the annual per‑person spending on K–12 education. - Expand the ACA tax credit for 7 years. - Provide up to 2 million people the SNAP benefits they need. - Provide a middle class tax break of $3,500. Instead, we will spend it on an illegal war. This is only the beginning. More money will be wasted. More lives will be lost.

Very oversold...

🛑For those following the current attacks in Iran, the region, and the Hormuz crisis but who aren’t deep into the oil industry: Oil and gas are highly flammable. When a rocket or drone hits a full storage tank or depot, the resulting fireball and massive plume of black smoke create dramatic, instantly recognizable visuals that spread worldwide in minutes. That’s exactly why militants, terrorists, and state actors have long targeted these facilities: the imagery guarantees global headlines and amplifies fear. But spectacular flames and smoke are not the same as meaningful, sustained damage to actual oil and gas supply flows. In many cases, the weapon used costs far more than replacing the tank and refilling its contents. The true “payoff” for the attacker is often the viral photos and videos, not a lasting disruption to production or exports. To the big accounts and commentators hyping every burning tank or depot as proof of massive destruction: let’s dial back the exaggeration. Dramatic scenes grab attention, but they rarely translate to the kind of prolonged supply shock that would truly reshape oil markets or the Hormuz crisis. They also divert attention from the insurance fiasco we are experiencing now. A case in point: guess where this dramatic scene is.

I heard an incredible analogy from a VC friend that I can’t stop thinking about. “The moat in software was the cost of building software. And Claude Code just mass produced a bridge.” It’s wild when you think about the impact of this. The SaaS boom produced a few dozen billionaires and a bunch of zero sum winners. But the AI SaaS era will mass produce millionaires. There will be fewer ServiceTitans hitting $5B valuations, and instead there will be 50,000 companies doing $500K-$5M each, run by 1-3 people with deep expertise and huge margins. To be clear, I believe that the total value of software goes up, and the number of companies created goes up exponentially. But the number of people who capture the value also goes up 100x. I don’t believe in the “SaaS is dying” headline, I think it’s missing the point. It’s simply that the power of SaaS is changing hands.

He’s forgetting the $400m of debt due in 2028 EV closer to $500m Running $100m / yr of SBC Shareholders getting diluted 15% annually Imagine losing 15% / yr in dilution to hold a stock with no revenue growth and 5-10% net margins SaaS valuations are simply coming back down to earth

He’s forgetting the $400m of debt due in 2028 EV closer to $500m Running $100m / yr of SBC Shareholders getting diluted 15% annually Imagine losing 15% / yr in dilution to hold a stock with no revenue growth and 5-10% net margins SaaS valuations are simply coming back down to earth

PagerDuty now at $667m market cap on $500m ARR, so just over 1x ARR But it’s worse than that, as they have $550m in cash So enteprise value closer to $120m on $500m ARR Growth is 1%, customer count has not grown. You MUST accelerate today. This is ALL the markets care about.