Mark Le Dain

@TheLongInvest High risk energy stocks are the only remaining safe haven

What Safe Haven's are you considering right now?

@nachkari Gold/miners face multiple headwinds now Countries will have to sell reserves (some gold) for food, fertilizer and energy (all spiking) Traditional buyers (GCC) no longer have funds flow Miner margins impacted by fuel Next dollar for every country is now building oil reserves

“The spice must flow!” - everyone with tech investments realizing the energy crisis is a massive headwind Energy itself is a constraint for AI The Gulf states also invested a lot of export surplus into tech funds High energy also means high rates $MSFT $BABA $SOFI $OPEN $AMZN

@RedLineDasher @DudeWhoInvests Haha yep, 100%

@mark_ledain @DudeWhoInvests Literally just buy energy stocks

Makes LITERALLY ZERO sense. GOLD the hedge for geopolitical instability is crashing in the face of geopolitical instability. Can’t make this up.

@fortunekr75 @DudeWhoInvests It’s a fair point but the Gulf states were sizeable buyers of gold with surpluses from energy exports That buying dynamic has now needed

@mark_ledain @DudeWhoInvests Makes no sense. Most nations have bigger US treasury reserves than gold. It's not even close. Plus it's so much easier to sell (and get a better price for) dogshit US debt than LBMA gold bullion. Probably all fake paper selling anyways.

@nachkari Depends how willing the US is to devalue The deficit wasn’t large back then It’s much riskier spending/devaluing (without economic growth) into a growing deficit because you can lose control quickly

@nachkari Yah, long term you end up with more gold backed trade, supply chains fracture Near term though what money would they buy with? The world hasn’t had an energy crisis like this in several decades You have no more surpluses in the exporters and the importers will run out of funds

@nachkari Everything will be getting sold At the very least it means fewer buyers on net With energy supply chains fractured every country is also now going to allocate some reserve dollars/surplus to oil reserves (a currency crisis is easier to manager for governments vs a fuel crisis)

@DudeWhoInvests Gold will drop as long as the energy crisis remains Many global nations with a surplus (I.e. oil exporting nations) parked their reserves in gold instead of treasuries $TLT They are now selling Every country that’s seeing a 3x increase fuel costs is selling gold $GOLD $NEM

Largo Resources $LGO is a well run company but the current rise in energy prices likely pushes out any vanadium bull market for several years No one will be building anything with energy costs 3x higher than a month ago It reinforces battery needs but demand isn’t at scale

@KirkLubimov Canada with significantly higher unemployment than almost every western peer will likely cap any rallies in the loonie

Pretty interesting how the Canadian dollar didn't really react to the the price of oil. Seems a little concerning...

@financialjuice Energy is all that matters $TLT $XLE $XEG Risk assets got a free pass for a decade because shale kept rates low despite excess liquidity (it flowed into energy) Countries like Canada have an unemployment crisis and central banks still might raise rates from higher energy costs

@Rory_Johnston Still a lot of catch up for Brent vs Asian grades Transport adds a delay and Asian refiners originally balked at pricing because they thought the crisis would be short lived, but those same refiners will now be bidding up everything globally which will start to show in Brent/TI

Brent crude pop, pops to $108

BoC's Gov. Macklem: We can raise rates if we see signs that energy prices are going to cause persistent inflation.

@Polymarket @FreightAlley The Situation Room from @Polymarket is probably the only thing that could have saved alcohol sales for this next decade $DGE $ABEV $LVMH

We're excited to announce 'The Situation Room' by Polymarket is coming to Washington, D.C. The world's first bar dedicated to monitoring the situation. 🧵

@Mr_Derivatives Energy is the only viable hedge right now Bonds are fighting a growing deficit (especially if receipts drop) and higher PPI even prior to the energy shock $TLT Tech would be fine has terminal value risks Meanwhile energy has real moats (assets can’t be duplicated due to regs)

Data drop: Ruh roh?

@EquityBrian The emerging markets trade, heavily weighted to Asia $KWEB $BABA $SEA $GRAB $CPNG is going to have a real tough time if the strait remains closed Right now Asia is experiencing energy prices at least 20% higher than the West This will impair margins and growth over time

Feels like one of those moments again where this starts to work… Long China tech $KWEB, short US tech $QQQ