Mike H

Footage of UK Royal Marines boarding the Smyrtos tanker, carrying over 100,000 tons of Russian crude, overnight in the English Channel. First time Britain has physically seized a Russian shadow fleet tanker in its own waters.

My thoughts on the current state of things between the United States and Iran: The situation increasingly resembles a deadlock. The Iranian crisis is a collision between two strategic logics, leaving almost no space for diplomacy. Washington’s logic is straightforward: more pressure. More sanctions, more strikes on infrastructure, proxy forces, and military targets - and Tehran will eventually accept American terms. Tehran’s logic is the exact opposite: no concessions under pressure. For a regime built on the principle of resistance to the West, any display of weakness means a loss of internal legitimacy. A concession made under American strikes looks less like a compromise and more like capitulation. There is also the factor of deep distrust. Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018 convinced Iran that American guarantees do not survive U.S. elections. The price of concessions is real, while Washington’s guarantees are temporary. Furthermore, the US likely made a strategic mistake by eliminating Khamenei. It is impossible to simultaneously negotiate a deal and eliminate the person who possessed the authority to approve it and guarantee its execution. Khamenei was not only a symbol of the regime but also an arbiter between competing centers of power. Following his elimination, the political center of gravity has inevitably shifted toward the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) - structures that believe far less in diplomacy and far more in the logic of forceful confrontation. As a result, escalation does not force Iran into a deal. It destroys the very possibility of a deal.Iran does not need to defeat the US. It just needs not to lose quickly. It is enough to keep Hormuz in a state of constant instability, maintain high oil prices, and force Washington to spend increasingly more resources on the Middle East. This is precisely why Russia and China appear to be the biggest beneficiaries of the current crisis. Moscow gets more expensive oil, a second front of attention for the US, and additional time in the war against Ukraine. Beijing is watching its main strategic rival sink deeper into yet another regional crisis. For Trump, the problem is that his political interests contradict his negotiating position. He needs a quick victory, stable energy markets, and cheap fuel ahead of the November elections. However, the demands Washington is placing on Tehran leave the Iranian leadership far too little room for retreat. Therefore, a way out of the current stalemate is possible only through a genuine political agreement that recognizes Iran's agency: partial sanctions relief, access to frozen assets, and security guarantees for the regime. For many in Washington, such a compromise will look like a concession. But if Iran withstands the current pressure, this very compromise may turn out to be a more politically realistic option for Trump than attempting to force Tehran into capitulation. If, however, the US finds a way to stabilize the energy market without reopening Hormuz, the incentive for compromise will drop sharply. In that case, the current seesaw of escalation could continue for months, increasingly radicalizing the region, destroying diplomatic channels, and raising the risk of a major regional war. 📹: President Trump says the deal with Iran is almost done, 39 times in total

🚨🇷🇺 BREAKING: The Tate brothers are getting Russian army training. 😳🔥