Nikita Pavlenko

@gnievchenko I still think your point is valid—and surely if we’re “stuck” w a certain share of liquid fuels why not improve their process emissions and divert them to aviation? Though I’m more cautious about the high land use change risk oilseeds.

@gnievchenko “Decarbonize” is the tricky part of this. Sugars and starches have fairly high direct LCA emissions (though lots of opportunities to reduce that via low-CI process energy inputs or CCS). Instead, the industry seems to be going for shaky soil carbon offsets within the LCA.

@argonbeam88 @ChetEdinger @biofuelslaw And next frontier is figuring out the impact of additionality req's and hourly matching on H2 and e-fuel costs. This influential 2023 paper is helpful on that: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…

@argonbeam88 @ChetEdinger @biofuelslaw I think this is the most helpful paper to understand the key issues on electricity: theicct.org/publication/wh…. If renewable electricity is diverted from existing productive uses or provided through a loose book-and-claim system, there is a risk that e-fuels are worse than fossil

T&E ranked 77 airlines and groups based on their expected emission reductions through #SAF and their shares of advanced and waste #biofuels and e-kerosene. Interesting analysis with harsh scores for crop-based fuels. Most companies earned a D. transportenvironment.org/topics/planes/…

@dunnde Table 2 here from ICAO is not perfect but can give a sense of the literature. Meanwhile, Gevo applied for $950M (and bumped to $1.46B) from DOE for a 60 Mgal facility (though w/ additional bells & whistles); so quite likely that TEA's may have underestimated by quite a bit.

has anyone seen a decent comparison on construction / CapEx costs for ATJ vs HEFA for #SAF

@CarbonAcumen @sasan_saadat @AirResources @jeffsaintjohn @AriPlachta @ZavalaA Would you say this is because it failed to take into account the flexibility of canola supply from Canada? or additional waste oil imports?

.@AirResources tells the press they voted for this proposal because of climate. The ? the press should ask: Why did every environmental + EJ group - plus climate scientists from Princeton, Yale, Penn, Davis, Stanford, PLUS the former program manager, oppose? Were they ALL wrong?

@Mattherman09 Barring more clear guidance the “global” ILUC value under CORSIA for corn would be the only valid option.

@Mattherman09 Important to note that this still hasn’t happened yet—there are still some hoops to jump through for safrinha corn to qualify. It is not clear if second cropping in that climate is truly an “unused” land approach, plus the CORSIA ILUC assessment already included multi-cropping

@NiyerClimate Congrats!

🚨🔔Registrations closing soon #Webinar on the future of India's HDV sector to meet the #NetZero goals with @DrHanifQ @amitbhatt4u Aviral Yadav @05Namita @Mittonius Sunil Bhatnagar @AnumitaRoychowd & I.V. Rao In partnership with @ETAuto 👉🏼 Register us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regist…

@CarbonAcumen Granted, the network is nationwide, but could this include revenue from things like like LCFS credits? This is a higher revenue than the posted prices @ Chargers.

@Mattherman09 I think I figured it out. For SAF's you're assuming a starting point of $1.25 for a 50% GHG reduction under 45Z. However, the value of 45Z should begin at $0/gal for aviation fuels and increase to $1.75--See Table 1: crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF…

@rb_coleman @argonbeam88 @biofuelslaw Couldn’t agree with you more on that last part. More focus should go towards improvements in measurable reductions along the supply chain.

@Mittonius @argonbeam88 @biofuelslaw Yeah, but c'mon. Your chart (which u use to back up your 40B framing) relies on 25 yr (inconsistent w US policy, u say) time amortization for the two highest bars (which make 40B look comparatively low). Once we stray from direct emissions, it's all fun and games-unfortunately.

The prospect that ethanol made from Brazilian sugarcane can have favorable treatment over domestic corn ethanol as a feedstock for #SAF is certainly troublesome. Biden forecasted 95% of SAF would come from farmers. Most of us assumed the IRA & #45Z would benefit **U.S.** farmers.

@rb_coleman @argonbeam88 @biofuelslaw By all means, it takes a few seconds to convert between a 30 year and 25 year time horizon. Doing that (for consistency w US policy), the CORSIA default remains somewhere between the CA LCFS and RFS values.

I think the "departure from regulatory assessments" is misleading. EPA RFS is one of the oldest. 40B is not a departure from the clear trend of higher resolution = lower ILUC. Unless of course you arbitrarily change the time amortization from 30 to 25 years like CORSIA and ICCT do.

@argonbeam88 @biofuelslaw @rb_coleman See here—it’s easy to rerun the model w different inputs and get wildly different results. Lots of different GTAP-BIO runs in the quote here to compare.

@argonbeam88 @biofuelslaw @rb_coleman Searchinger (2008) is very outdated. I recommend supplementing Lark w the 2023 EPA ILUC model comparison exercise (5 models), ICAO’s 2019 LCA to harmonize between two ILUC models, and Plevin’s work w the PNNL GCAM model.

Soy oil and other HEFA pathways fare better--they qualify using default assumptions--and have opportunities to reduce their CI further. Soy oil in particular benefits from mass allocation in the direct LCA--a departure from energy allocation under CORSIA

All together, a pathway like corn ethanol-to-jet starts from a high EF using default assumptions (even with the lower ILUC factor)--about an 18% reduction from the fossil baseline or 30% with CSA's. But there are many opportunities to use CCS, RE or RNG to reduce direct emissions

A few quick thoughts on yesterday's #SAF tax credit announcement from US Treasury. It's a mixed bag--there's a few promising elements, but a few components of the methodology that are political compromises. irs.gov/newsroom/treas…