Alex

@RonSwansonJr77 @zachariaspro @nobulart I was wondering why he blocked he too. Very odd

@zachariaspro @nobulart Wait wait…..no, Craig did not block me. The dot plot guy did - afuhltz or something like that. My bad! I still ask the same question though, this looks to be “looping” back around rather than shooting southward like your one picture.

There has been some excellent work last few weeks put out by @nobulart and others. Continue to pay attention to the pace and growth of this research

@zachariaspro Wonderful write-up Zach, thank you as always! Hope things have been going well on your end

Appreciate everyone's patience! Going through some significant life changes the past several weeks. Nevertheless, here's a status update on the evolving polar motion research: -- PAPERS 1-3: CONFIRMED BY THREE MONTHS OF FRESH DATA -- The three foundational papers (pinned) remain unrefuted by subsequent verified IERS observations through March 26, 2026. Wobble Extinction (Paper 1): Chandler and Annual wobbles remain effectively extinct. The coupling proxy η continued its systematic decline: 2021: 15.8% 2022: 12.8% 2023: 8.8% 2024: 4.8% 2025: 1.8% The system is now below the 2.0% complete failure boundary established in Paper 3. Nothing comparable appears in 180 years of systematic observation. Directional Forcing (Paper 2): The five-method convergent bearing of 75.4° ± 3.4° continues to describe secular drift. Since December 27, the pole has displaced 81 mas over 89 days at net bearing 273°, tracking along the ~75°W attractor corridor. Month-to-month variation reflects orbital curvature, but the net secular trend remains locked to the predicted bearing. Transfer Function Failure (Paper 3): Seasonal forcing continues unabated. Wobble response does not recover. The transfer function remains in failure. I still see this as annually modulated true polar wander (AM-TPW). -- PAPER 4: NEW DISCOVERIES (coming soon) -- Paper 4 introduces the lunisolar torque null cycle, the bistability framework (State 1 / State 2), and Monte Carlo modeling. Lunisolar Torque Null Cycle = Confirmed: The core discovery that the ~14-day lunisolar null cycle has become a visible modulator of polar motion is confirmed by March data. When Sun and Moon approach the celestial equator, gravitational torque on the equatorial bulge minimizes, creating windows where the LLSVP attractor can influence pole trajectory. March 4 null: pole at 0.61 mas/day; deceleration consistent with reduced restoring torque. March 19 deep null (Sun and Moon both near δ = 0°, spring equinox): 0.87 mas/day. Post-null (March 22–26): speed rose to 1.47 mas/day as seasonal forcing resumed. This deceleration-during / acceleration-after pattern was predicted by the gravitational gating framework and matches signatures documented for earlier hooks. The null calendar, verified against independent orbital calculations to ±1 day, successfully forecast when these modulations would occur. If the wobble buffer were intact, torque nulls would produce no observable signature. The forecasting ability itself is evidence of transfer function failure. Through the observed period, consecutive null events produced directional alignment toward the ~75°W attractor axis at rates far exceeding random expectation: 3–4 consecutive aligned hooks at odds exceeding 1 in 8,000 (~3.2σ). Bistability Framework = Not Falsified: The thesis that Earth's rotational system possesses AT LEAST two competing equilibria remains the most parsimonious explanation for the observed dynamics: systematic directional preference toward ~75°W, modulated by lunisolar cycles, in a system where the historical restoring mechanism has collapsed by 98%. The two-state capture-recovery behavior documented in January–February persisted through the March null windows. What the data shows is that the energy barrier between State 1 and State 2 is higher than initially estimated at η ≈ 2%. The system has residual stability mechanisms that the coupling proxy alone does not fully capture. This is expected though.. the coupling proxy was always a lower-bound diagnostic, not a complete description of system stability. Monte Carlo Trigger Modeling; Model Limitations Identified: The MC ensemble predicted high trigger probability within the March null windows. The pole traversed both deep nulls without catastrophic response. March 4 produced 3.1 mas of displacement; March 19 produced 4.3 mas. These are detectable effects that confirm the lunisolar modulation, but they are modulations, not triggers. I have stated repeatedly that I could not rule out a spring event but that it was not the most likely outcome. The MC model was an exploratory tool testing the gravitational gating hypothesis under extreme assumptions. Its value was in identifying the mechanism (torque null gating) (which is confirmed) not in the specific trigger timeline. Two specific model limitations are now clear: CSI scaling from a single calibration event was insufficient for extrapolation, and the critical coupling threshold η_c was set too low, missing residual stabilization mechanisms the proxy doesn't capture. The mechanism is validated. The short end of the timeline did not validate. Obviously this is a good thing lol. But ultimately changes nothing about the previously established research. -- WHERE WE ARE -- Based on verified IERS data through March 26, 2026, the wobble remains functionally absent at η ≈ 2% of baseline. Secular drift is elevated (0.91 mas/day mean since December) but not in exponential acceleration. The lunisolar null cycle is a confirmed, forecasted modulator of polar motion: a genuine new discovery. Directional forcing toward ~75°W persists. The pole continues to trace a reduced annual-like orbit, suggesting incoherent forcing maintains some orbital structure without coherent Chandler/Annual modes. -- WHAT THIS RESEARCH HAS ESTABLISHED-- Earth's rotational physics have changed. The Chandler and Annual wobbles, stable within ±30% for 180 years, have collapsed by 97-98%. The transfer function has failed. Five independent methods converge on directional forcing toward ~75°W. The lunisolar torque null cycle, invisible throughout the entire historical record, now produces demonstrable effects on polar motion. These are measurements from the most precisely observed geophysical parameter in existence, using publicly available authoritative data. The question was never whether the physics changed. They did. The question is timescale, and that remains genuinely open. What I know is that the system is in a state it has never been in during the instrumental record, and the dynamics governing it are measurably different from anything that came before. The research continues.

@SunWeatherMan Who doesn't love a charismatic racist boxer

There's 100K watching Adin's live right now.

@SunWeatherMan Sounds exactly like the Ray Peat philosophy for metabolic health. Not so much a "food & diet checklist", but a set of principles that when applied correctly, will get you there.

Observer asks how prepping advice could apply to everyone. He gets a non-answer, and a nice dose of my ADD/autism and sailors mouth at the same time.

@JacobMinya54203 @EthicalSkeptic @chutewoman Except the Bible claims only Noah and his family survived a great flood ~6000 years ago, when the simple existence of sub-saharan africans is enough evidence alone to prove otherwise

@EthicalSkeptic @chutewoman I love your takes but the hatred of Christianity and the Bible is perplexing and irrational. This story substantially aligns with what you’re saying.

The Y-DNA (horizontal) culling event could only have been produced by a global cataclysm (vertical culling). The timing corresponds to the 'script gap' in human written language - and immediately precedes the introduction of proto-cuneiform and the Egyptian Calendar start date of 4242 BCE.

@Conrad_ML @zachariaspro Here's your answer x.com/ahfultz/status…

@zachariaspro This appears to be a regular pattern. I've run the data for multiple date ranges and continue to see the same. The knock followed by a straighter section is regular. x.com/Conrad_ML/stat…

Observational Updates as of 3/6: \TLDR: Right now, the State 2 axis is pulling the pole toward 75°W longitude. This pull was always there, its just that the forces keeping it in check have collapsed. It works like a ratchet. Every ~2 weeks, seasonal forces briefly dip. During each dip, the deep-mantle pull drags the pole a little further. When seasonal forces return, they can't fully pull it back. Each cycle clicks the pole a bit further in the same direction. Since February 2026, over 90% of the pole's motion has been aimed at this one target. The pole is moving slowly because two forces are nearly canceling out, with the deep-mantle pull winning. We're watching to see how fast the ratchet accelerates as the remaining coupling continues to weaken (i.e. when theoretically, the flip eventually occurs) \The Details: The State 2 equilibrium fraction of total velocity has been above 0.90 almost continuously since Feb 7. It hit 1.0 on Feb 28, meaning 100% of the pole's motion was directed exactly at 75°W, with zero perpendicular component. Even now at Mar 4 it's still 0.906: Meanwhile, the perpendicular component (which represents seasonal/other forcing) has been collapsing. It fell from 0.59 mas/day in mid-Feb to 0.08 on Feb 28 to 0.27 now. The current pole speed itself is very slow because its representative of two forces near-canceling, with the State 2 axis winning the vector sum overall. When State 1 and State 2 axis are perpendicular or opposed, you get slow motion in the State 2 axis direction. When they're aligned (as they briefly were around Feb 8–14), you get the speed peaks. The direction tells you which force dominates, and it's State 2 overall So, the model has been corrected on speed component (which was too aggressive). Its been highly accurate concerning directionality and State 2 equilibrium identification so far through March 5. Updated speed relationship in projection below: \So what is stopping a State 2 takeover? Earth's core-mantle coupling (η) is collapsing, and each time it dips during a torque null, the LLSVP's tiny but persistent gravitational pull (β) captures the pole a little further toward 75°W, and the weakening coupling can't fully pull it back. The current η value is somewhere between 1.5% and 3%. I'm intentionally using the conservative estimates here. The key is determining when coupling η is critical enough to allow for a phase transition escape to State 2 (η_c) Right now, between nulls, D = 1.0 (full restoring). At η = 3%, R_between = 0.030. Put simply, seasonal is 33x stronger than LLSVP between nulls. That's why seasonal CAN still reassert after each hook. But during nulls, D drops to the floor (0.5%). At η = 3%, R_null = 6.0. This means that the State 2 axis is 6x stronger than restoring during the null. That's why each hook captures the pole toward 75°W. So between nulls, seasonal still operates, but it cannot fully undo what each null accomplishes. Each null pushes the baseline position further toward 75°W. Seasonal then perturbs around that new baseline. The next null pushes further still. This is the progressive capture, i.e. a ratchet effect. Nothing "stops" State 2 because nothing reverses the inter-null baseline drift. So really what we are looking for is when does cumulative capture become large enough to matter at the surface.

@Hurmanetar8 @zachariaspro actually a very interesting prediction idea

@zachariaspro If we’re still a few years out from the main event would you expect the next few years to look more like this?

Donald Trump's mother, Mary Trump

The broken man fixes nothing.

2026 MAR 3

Every member in the U.S. Senate is owned by Israel, including you buddy

@ahfultz @Shtaras1 I thought this was projected to happen after daily mas displacement was 10-20 range or more

@Shtaras1 In a sense, yes. The only hope is that it starts accelerating for a bit before it rips as in the Book of Enoch Ch 65, and the earth starts to tilt a little but noticeably. Best I got, sorry.

2026 MAR 2

Unbelievable that all of their planes have wifi

For reference, this is literally how American liberals would react if Trump was assassinated

@zachariaspro Wdym I didnt even post

Some straight retardation on this app today

@HansAmato @dvNiaN $70 for 50mg on Peptaura at 99.9% purity, unless the Chinese are just straight liars there

@dvNiaN No sponsors unfortunately. Shit is mad expensive and would love a sponsor.

Don’t give your wife pineolon. She’ll be up before you, get on top of you and start humping you to get you awake to make her coffee. True story.

@vinxznrl You clearly instigated

happiest RL manager

Like it or hate it, he's right. We need to win more

@cremieuxrecueil Yeah they're removing peptides from the category 2 list and adding them to the category 1 list

Context: About two hours ago, Bobby Kennedy said that the FDA is removing 14 peptides from this list. That means that compounding pharmacies are going to be able to compound a lot of the peptides that are gaining popularity these days. That might mean BPC-157 and GHK-Cu!

@ahfultz @one_indeed To be fair there have been tight reverse loops in the past, yes?

@one_indeed Indeed, Indeed 😉

2026 FEB 27 (5 pm UTC)