@Alexsei88 @BenjaminRaderm1 Significant volume from Kazakhstan won’t hit western markets until 2031. Besides Sangdong phase 2 no significant new supply will hit ex-China. I also think the cycle average will be much higher than you think.
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Full Port tin #tin baron
11.4K posts
Full Port tin #tin baron
@NotJanetYellen7
PHD Runner/fitness/biotech. Opinions are my own-not investor advice-DYODD #Gold #metals #energy #longevity #mentalhealth #cannabis #macro
Beigetreten Ocak 2021
1.9K Folgt1K Follower
@NotJanetYellen7 @BenjaminRaderm1 Commercialising a fusion reactor will not make it in time for this bull cycle, just as Almonty’s Sangdong Phase 2 will not make it either.
Enough tungsten will come from elsewhere before Sangdong Phase 2.
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If you compare it to Almonty, they produced around 55,000 mtu last year and their market cap was around USD 5 billion.
EQR will produce around 300,000 mtu over the next 12 months, and their market cap is around USD 1 billion.
EQR’s re-rate continues..
#Tungsten $EQR.AX $ALM
GIF
CK Capital@CKCapitalxx
$EQR.AX is a A$0.30 tungsten miner with two operating mines and 3,000-4,000 tonne production target in 2026. Its closest peer ran 840% last year and trades at 8x its valuation on similar production. APT tungsten prices have gone from $320 to $3,000 in a year. China just cut exports to zero. DoD bans Chinese tungsten from all US defense contracts January 2027. The upside here is not subtle.
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@Alexsei88 @BenjaminRaderm1 Okay. As of now the market disagrees w/ you.
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@NotJanetYellen7 @BenjaminRaderm1 And Sangdong cannot generate $1 billion in EBITDA per year either. Not even at these prices.
Sorry.
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@Alexsei88 @BenjaminRaderm1 2028.
If you look at demand side from things like nuclear fusion and supply side, high tungsten prices will be supported for decades. Sangdong will throw off more than $1 billion in ebitda every year for decades b/c it is low cost.
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@el_miikka If you want something with tungsten exposure with much more asymmetric risk-reward look at $BMM @BlueMoonMetals
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@el_miikka With the U.S. try to 4x missile production for example high tungsten prices should persists for decades. Sangdong will be throwing off more than $1b in ebitda every year for decades. NPV is probably closer to $10 b not including Molybdenum kicker.
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As an $eqr.ax stockholder, here's a contrarian though: the supply crisis is going to get so bad that even $alm at current valuations is a decent buy.
Not buying it myself though.
Miikkael@el_miikka
“#Tungsten was an essential material for defense industries during the Korean war. But its use in the civilian and industrial sectors was very limited. A survey by the Bank of Korea in 1952 revealed that approximately 95% of all tungsten demand came from the defense industry -- the cruel reality for the tungsten industry in South Korea was that tungsten’s profitability depended on how long the Korean War lasted.” Nowadays defense demand only accounts for 14% anymore. I have a feeling that the Tungsten supply crisis this time is going to be something the world hasn’t seen before. But who knows, maybe I'm wrong. Eqr.ax
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@Alexsei88 @BenjaminRaderm1 It’s also a lot higher margin.
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@Alexsei88 @BenjaminRaderm1 Sangdong should hit ~500,000 MTUs of tungsten concentrate.
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Full Port tin #tin baron retweetet
@APompliano @wmiddelkoop his is not that impressive. ISI PSM Manufacturing is being driven higher by factors painful to business - slower delivers due to Hormuz closure and geopolitical events, inventory build-up that is front running tariff change, ⬆️in Prices Paid Index…
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There is a manufacturing boom underway in America.
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This is not that impressive. ISI PSM Manufacturing is being driven higher by factors painful to business - slower delivers due to Hormuz closure and geopolitical events, inventory build-up that is front running tariff change, ⬆️in Prices Paid Index…
Anthony Pompliano 🌪@APompliano
There is a manufacturing boom underway in America.
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@ir_foo @GavMcCracken @1Leg2Cents @chigrl Right, it’s just a very tiny % of your property taxes that go to maintaining critical infrastructure. Most is spent on social programs. Local governments have spending problems, all sorts of health and human services (welfare programs) funded with your property taxes.
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@GavMcCracken @1Leg2Cents @chigrl I don’t get it, aren’t you paying a monthly bill for sewage and water treatment? How does that have anything to do with taxes?
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@1Leg2Cents @GavMcCracken @chigrl Only a tiny % of your property taxes go to maintain sewage systems and other critical infrastructure. Most of
It is spent on government welfare programs like free housing and medical for illegal immigrants.
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@GavMcCracken @chigrl Thats what the 35% of my income to pay in taxes, instead they waste a shit ton of money on pointless things that add no economic value, usually through corrupt processes at the expense of things like infrastructure. Governments have a spending problem, not a taxation problem.
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Full Port tin #tin baron retweetet
Japan stopped publishing the oil data.
Fujairah is near tank bottom.
European oil inventories are collapsing.
US is the only visible one left with cushion. The US is 20% of global oil inventories.
When the market sees how fast visible onshore inventories decline, the inflection point will come.
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GIF
QME
@GrawJaylo @FLManStan @NotJanetYellen7 @PeterSchiff @ewarren I'm sorry way too many of your ancestors fucked each other raw all the time.
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The Big Four airlines (American, Delta, Southwest, United) control 75% of the U.S. market.
Fewer choices = higher prices for you.
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So the Russians are announcing here for the first time one way or another Odessa will be brought under Russian control.
Russian Embassy in Kenya/Посольство России в Кении@russembkenya
On May 2, 2014, 40 of innocent people were brutally killed, burnt alive, by Ukrainian Nazis in Odessa's Trade Union House for rejecting the 2014 coup in Kiev aka illegal power grab. Those involved in this atrocious massacre will be held to account. #NoStatuteOfLimitations
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@PeterSchiff @ewarren You know this Judge was appointed by Ronald Reagan, yes?
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@mi_ster_x @calvinfroedge Likely a drone from Lebanon. No big deal.
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@calvinfroedge It’s a drone from Lebanon. Who cares?
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Looks like the war is back on
Vitamvivere@Vitamvivere
‼️ Explosions boom across northern Israel as air defenses intercept incoming missiles.
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