OnChainKai

Been watching markets quietly for a while. Tired of the noise, the shills, the “100x gem” guys. So I’m just going to post what I actually see. BTC structure, liquidity, narratives forming early. Just me, a chart, and an honest take. Stick around if that’s your thing. 👇

@sentdefender 55 ships feels low compared to a normal day, but 17M barrels barely budged. Whoever’s still running it might just be the big tankers, not regular traffic.

According to a release from U.S. Central Command, despite Iran’s announcement of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the strait remains open. Per the release, 55 vessels transited the strait today, transporting 17 million barrels of oil.

@TedPillows Spot CVD rolling over while perps grind higher is usually leverage doing the heavy lifting, not real buyers. Curious how long that gap can hold before one side gives.

Price is going sideways. Perps are trending up. Spot demand is going down. Not looking good for $BTC.

@LynAldenContact Sunk cost fallacy, but make it a foreign policy. We’re like $8 trillion deep since 9/11 betting on ‘this time it works.’

@sentdefender Funny how the strait gets shut the night before you sit down at the table asking for sanctions relief. That’s not bad timing, that’s a negotiating tactic.

According to a release from the Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “technical-level” negotiations between the U.S. and Iran will be held in Switzerland tomorrow, the 21st. The announcement comes amidst Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, citing Israel’s operations against Lebanese Hezbollah in Lebanon, the U.S.’s slow movement on implementing sanctions waivers, and the still pending release of frozen assets and funds as a justification for the move.

@unusual_whales tbh that black box warning was on borrowed time. TRAVERSE already showed no extra heart attack risk back in 2023, FDA just slow

Trump admin seeks to roll back testosterone restrictions, per NYP

@AshCrypto down bad all week, fear & greed stuck in extreme fear, and I’m still checking the chart every 5 min. bro’s right, there’s no leaving😭

If you ever made money in crypto, you can never leave. Never. The only way out is death. You live by the trenches. You die by the trenches. Better get used to this shit.

@DeItaone Hezbollah launched 50+ rockets at Israel last night and Iran wants the US to “force” Israel to stand down? Pick a side here lol

IRAN'S IRGC WARNS VESSELS NOT TO APPROACH STRAIT OF HORMUZ, SAYS THEIR SECURITY WOULD OTHERWISE BE AT RISK -STATEMENT

@KobeissiLetter Lmao they signed the Islamabad deal on the 17th promising the strait stays open for 60 days. Didn’t even last 72 hours.😂

BREAKING: Iran's IRGC officially confirms that the Strait of Hormuz is now closed to all vessels. The IRGC warns that Vessels who approach the Strait of Hormuz will face a "security risk."

@DeItaone how many times have they ‘agreed’ to this ceasefire now, lost count 💀

TRUMP SPOKE WITH ISRAEL EARLIER FRIDAY AND ASKED THEM TO AGREE TO A CEASEFIRE W/HEZBOLLAH -NBC NEWS

@DeItaone so it’s not free passage, it’s ‘submit paperwork and hope iran says yes’ 💀

IRAN'S PERSIAN GULF STRAIT AUTHORITY SAYS IN LIGHT OF MOU WITH U.S., PASSAGE THROUGH HORMUZ WILL BE GRANTED TO VESSELS THAT SUBMIT REQUESTS IN COMPLIANCE WITH THE NECESSARY REQUIREMENTS

@AshCrypto dominance still parked at 59% tho, alt season index hasn’t even left bitcoin season territory. this just looks like alts bled less, not actual rotation yet

Since the May 6th high of $82,777, Bitcoin has dropped nearly -28% and hit a low of $59,000. While OTHERS/BTC is up +33% in the same period. Majority of Altcoins are holding well against BTC even during the recent drop.

@sentdefender israel was never even part of that deal lol. trump cut it with iran, not netanyahu’s government. meanwhile ben gvir’s out here saying lebanon should “burn” and troops aren’t pulling out — that’s exactly the gap iran’s pushing on right now

As Israeli strikes in Lebanon continue, Iran has reportedly asked for assurances that Israeli operations in Lebanon will cease before continuing with the negotiations process, according to CNN. Following the death of a number of Israel Defense Force soldiers, Israel’s security minister, Ben Gvir, has called for drastic escalation in Lebanon, further hampering an already tenuous U.S.-Iran peace process.

@EricBalchunas ESG isn’t gone, it just changed its name. Brussels is mid-rewrite on SFDR right now, splitting everything into “transition” and “sustainable” buckets so funds don’t have to say the actual word anymore lol

I was in Europe for an entire week, sat through multiple panels, networked with a bunch of ETF people, and did not hear the phrase "ESG" one time.

@TedPillows I'm anxious about the transaction.

@OnChainKai Good morning, how’s your week going so far?

GM☕️. Happy Friday ☀️

@TedPillows good

Gym time 🏋️

@TedPillows dollar ripping right as everyone’s chasing risk assets, rough timing 💀

$DXY is now at its highest level since May 2025. More pain ahead for risk-on assets.

@unusual_whales a republican senator just said Iran needs missiles to defend itself lol, did not expect that

Reporter: Are you okay with Iran having missiles? Senator Marshall: I prefer that they not, but they have to defend themselves. Reporter: You think Iran needs to be able to defend itself? Marshall: I do, otherwise we turn this into a forever war

@zerohedge Iran kept the missiles, kept the uranium, and got $300B… what exactly did we get 💀

Goldman Delta -1 on Iran deal "Oil lower again as market can now see the details of the signed 14pt MOU. Based on what's been reported, the framework seems to accommodate many of Iran’s key demands, including retention of its ballistic missile program, no requirement to export enriched uranium, access to frozen assets, and a substantial reconstruction package ($300bn). There are still obvious questions around implementation, sequencing and verification but for now this seems to have been engineered to take maximum pressure off the oil price as geopolitical questions/regional security/nuclear debates have been differed/delayed."

@zerohedge war ends and Iran’s oil money just walks right back in lol

*US TO ISSUE WAIVERS FOR IRAN OIL EXPORTS SOON AFTER MOU DEAL