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PredictBack
42 posts
PredictBack
@PredictBack
Vibes Are Cheap. Backtests Aren't. Quantitative Backtesting for Prediction Markets.
New York Beigetreten Şubat 2026
16 Folgt47 Follower
HEAR ME OUT
easiest money you'll make (with size)
throw some $ into to top 10 highest mc hackathon applications
when they announce the winners you'll get a free 10x-100x, simple as that
Spotlight@pumpspotlight
The Pump fun Build in Public Hackathon application deadline is quickly approaching. So far, we’ve seen applications from some truly interesting projects & teams. As of now, 2 out of 12 projects have each secured a $250,000 investment from Pump Fund, with more being announced soon. Despite applications closing on February 25, 23:59 EST, the race is very much still on, and those who continue to Build in Public will be among the next cohort of winners. As intended, the BiP Hackathon will continue to let the market decide which builders may be the next winners. What does it mean to Build in Public? Simply put, building in public means communication & transparency between teams & communities. In an industry where years worth of project funding can be secured early on, it's important that traders know what they’re backing, and more importantly who they’re backing. Allowing your community to know who’s behind the project and instill trust in you is important, not just for the success of your project, but for the success of your application in the BiP Hackathon. Remember, the community plays an important role in the validation of your idea and ultimately the decisions made in the BiP Hackathon. Effective communication means frequent updates, community conversations, Pump fun livestreams, X Spaces, podcasts and other forms of distribution. What happens after the application deadline? After applications close, every existing applicant is still a potential winner and are being closely monitored by our team. As previously stated, building in public is your ticket to success and you still have a chance to win up until the 12th winner has been chosen. Potential BiP Hackathon winners will be reached out to by a @Pumpfun affiliate. The next winners will be announced via @pumpspotlight over the coming weeks, pending eligibility. Winner announcements are not a guarantee of investment - investments are subject to further due diligence such as KYC & AML checks. If you are yet to apply, now is the time to do so 👇
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we just dropped our intro video for PredictBack ▶️
what we’re building and how we think about edge, risk, and structure in this space.
if you care about:
- backtesting over vibes
- sizing over guessing
- structure over narratives
this is for you - predictback.com 🙌🙌
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just in time for @Kalshi data :)))
Tarek Mansour@mansourtarek_
The Federal Reserve just put out an incredible paper about Kalshi's data. "Our results suggest that Kalshi markets provide a high-frequency, continuously updated, distributionally rich benchmark that is valuable to both researchers and policymakers." federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/k…
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PredictBack retweetet
Prediction markets create a public good: probabilistic truth. Someone has to pay for public goods.
Until now, that's been venture dollars and brave market makers subsidizing liquidity to bootstrap these markets.
Today marks an inflection point.
Polymarket has crossed the threshold where any actor willing to pay for the price discovery of probabilistic truth can now bootstrap a market themselves.
No VC required, no professional market maker needed.
Whenever probabilistic truth is needed, a market for it will survive on organic demand alone.
Volumes, accuracy, and adoption will now increase at a steeper pace.
Polymarket has become permanent infrastructure.
Polymarket@Polymarket
Hedge funds, educational institutions, and everyday people are now able to sponsor liquidity rewards to get more reliable Polymarket forecasts. While polymarkets are incredibly accurate even with little volume, this accuracy only improves with additional liquidity incentives.
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We BUILDING fam!!! 🏗️🏗️🏗️
added MORE visualization tools based on 30+ GB of data. Plot maker vs. taker trade size, returns over time, and more... data/analysis by @beckerrjon 🙏🙏🙏
next up - making it interactive /configurable! ▶️
check it out predictback.com/data-analysis 👀
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fam, we're working on some visualization tools on historical data for you to explore and pair with your backtesting
things like maker/taker comparisons, returns by category, win rate by price - and expanding this data to @Kalshi as well - we think you'll lervvvv it ❤️
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@lo_tech we'll be looking to integrate some of this data into the backtesting platform - sent you guys a message 😃
LO:TECH@lo_tech
If you want to analyse and trade prediction markets properly, you need data that’s normalised, easy to work with and compare. We’ve built that pipeline, and prediction market data is now part of our live and historic market data service, covering Polymarket, Kalshi and Opinion.
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Should we join this Pump.fun hackathon? 🤔
hackathon.pump.fun
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according to @datadashboards, @Polymarket has >$12b volume than @Kalshi but $65m less in OI. this means more turnover + less position persistence
polymarket activity dominated by short-horizon trading rt capital being parked
this is where backtesting comes into play🤌
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it's the day celebrating love so we are BUILDING
happy valentine's day to all the single hungry prediction market degenerates out there. PredictBack is your palentine this year♥️♥️ let's get itt!!!!
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100 percent yes. People are already launching tokens, streaming builds, and gaining traction with tools, AI workflows, security audits, and more. Your quant angle really stands out in the noise. Even if you don’t make the top twelve, you’ll get community feedback, early users, and visibility in Solana’s hottest ecosystem. Worst case, it’s free marketing and a chance to test demand. Best case, you’re funded and accelerated. Please join
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