dash

@JuanRodrig07 Appreciate it sir!

@datadashboards Congrats man! You do awesome work

Seeing my data used by those who inspire me will never get old 🙏

@yellowpantherx @PolymarketTrade @trylimitless @predictdotfun @Kalshi @opinionlabsxyz @MyriadMarkets invite bls

Prediction markets will become a norm in a few years time. Polymarket. Kalshi. Predict Fun. Limitless. Myriad. Opinions. No matter the platform. We’re still very early and I want to start a closed group for active people. Who wants in? 🤝

📊 Prediction Markets - Notional Volume Recap (February: $23.3B vs January: $26.7B) • Kalshi: $10.4B (+9.2% MoM) • Polymarket: $7.9B (+3.7% MoM) • Opinion: $3.1B (-61.5% MoM) • Predict: $784.0M (+37.2% MoM) • Crypto(.)com: $397.3M (-12.0% MoM) • Limitless: $371.1M (+95.1% MoM) • Myriad: $125.2M (+417.8% MoM) • IBKR: $63.4M (-58.7% MoM) • Gemini: $33.0M (-10.7% MoM) • Overtime: $17.5M (-38.8% MoM) • Total: $23.3B (-13.0% MoM)

Yesterday @trylimitless announced Market Maker Rebates were increased to 100% across all daily, hourly, and minutely price markets. This resulted in their rewards distributed since inception to shoot up over $1M! Around $40K of rewards are now being given out daily to platform users. Check out more data 👉 dune.com/datadashboards…

@mustafap0ly @Polymarket @TaikiMaeda2 haha no worries mate, the tags are just very helpful on my end if kept consistent

@datadashboards @Polymarket @TaikiMaeda2 lol mb, i'm retarded. Fixing the tags now

Added tracking for any recurring crypto prices market mentioning HYPE, DOGE or BNB to my @Polymarket Overview dashboard! So far these new markets look like they are contributing around $250K in notional volume per day. Something compelled the Polymarket team to not tag DogeCoin markets as "Doge" or "Dogecoin" but rather "Taiki Maeda" 🤣

Prediction Market Weekly Update Notional Volume 1. @Kalshi $2.93b 2. @Polymarket $2.34b 3. @cryptocom $156.1m 4. @Limitless $128.1m 5. @predictdotfun $91.2m 6. @Opinionlabsxyz $77.9m 7. Other $20.6m 8. @overtime $4.0m Total $5.76b Open Interest 1. @Kalshi $466.1m 2. @Polymarket $451.1m 3. @Opinionlabsxyz $18.5m 4. @predictdotfun $17.5m 5. Other $5.7m 6. @Limitless $0.6m Total $959.4m Transactions 1. @Polymarket 24.67m 2. @Kalshi 19.75m 3. @Limitless 349.7k 4. Other 244.9k 5. @predictdotfun 113.4k 6. @Opinionlabsxyz 110.8k 7. @overtime 13.7k Total 45.25m Users 1. @Polymarket 366.7k 2. @Limitless 18.4k 3. @predictdotfun 5.7k 4. @Opinionlabsxyz 4.6k 5. Other 1.7k 6. @overtime 491 Total 397.5k I post these every week. Lmk what other data is interesting to add. h/t to @datadashboards for the @Dune dashboard. Use @tradefoxai to trade all from one interface.

I'm tracking volumes and users for @opinionlabsxyz's 50% maker rebate on my Opinion dashboard now Check it out here 👉 dune.com/datadashboards…

@bl888m lfg

@datadashboards strong progress

how are your new years resolutions going?

Speed bumps in crypto prediction markets. On Polymarket, 15-minute crypto bets reached ~$300M weekly. But after a 500ms execution advantage for market makers was removed, volume fell ~45% week-over-week ($260M → $143M). 5-minute bets keep growing Great story by @emilyjnicolle

@AnikSanya good stuff. i think i set mine a little too aggresive hahah main one im about 10% into i set about 5, three are very hard, two are very easy. focused on the hard ones rn

@datadashboards about 25% completed so far

@MovieTimeDev @Dune @Kalshi just giving my two cents 🤝, big fan of your work king

@datadashboards @Dune @Kalshi Good correction will note that in the future

As one of the prediction market data guys, I thought I'd drop some additional context: @Kalshi's number whilst outlandish is likely not far off the mark. If you apply Kalshi's documented fee structure to their exposed taker trades you get to ~$118M. The flat 1% fee assumption the author made is likely even more accurate if you believe most of Kalshi's flow comes through @RobinhoodApp - on Robinhood you can only place taker orders, with a flat $0.01 fee per contract routed to Kalshi. At that structure, 1% of notional is the right approximation. Kalshi's 30-day notional: $11,004,380,330. There is some under-representation in onchain prediction market fees too. Most people track prediction market fees by only looking at dollar/stablecoin fees, when nearly all onchain PMs also collect fees denominated in shares. If I'm not mistaken, most of this data comes from @DefiLlama, who currently measure fees this way. For liquid venues, share fees can be valued at the time of trade. There will be some discrepancy given tokens resolve to either 0 or 1, but imo it's a more accurate picture than excluding them entirely. Many prediction markets will also merge opposing shares to redeem collateral before resolution, so you can expect venues like @Polymarket, @predictdotfun and @trylimitless to show higher actual fees once you account for this. Predict is running ~40% higher. Polymarket closer to ~80%. Finally, @opinionlabsxyz launched a 50% maker rebate program 3 days ago, meaning a significant portion of daily USDT fees is now being routed back to users. Current dashboards don't fully reflect this yet - minor discrepancy for now, but worth flagging.

@tstereth @Kalshi $0.01 to robinhood + $0.01 to kalshi per trade so if u buy a contract for 4c (4%) you are paying effectively a 50% fee

@datadashboards @Kalshi i see so robinhood fe is 1% to kalshi + $0.01 to robinhood?

this is taker side fees only - im not making any assumptions about the maker side. dont see why any serious mm would being using robinhood fe instead of going direct to kalshi since i dont think robinhood exposes the orderbook + you'd be paying extra fees to robinhood (0.01c per contract per side)

@datadashboards @Kalshi > on Robinhood you can only place taker orders, with a flat $0.01 fee per contract routed to Kalshi doesn't this suggest that their average fee is a lot lower than 1%? subsidized for takers on Robinhood and presumably mms dont pay a fee either

@bread_ check out @JW_Seoul's dashboard dune.com/seoul/polymark…

Is that what's driving all the Polygon throughput? They flipped Base March 2nd and haven't looked back since.

@tstereth @Kalshi theres a few other non onchain pms there like ibkr. fees are based on volumes in that case prolly (so still a black box)

@datadashboards @Kalshi are fees visible onchain for all of these PMs except Kalshi?

@poopmandefi @Kalshi you have to watch out tho - if the venue is not liquid, it can be manipulated

@datadashboards @Kalshi Oh I see now , interesting