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score-first frequency should materially shift the win/draw split — don’t treat pre-match xG as the whole story, add a time-to-goal/hazard layer that conditions outcomes on scoring-first propensity. we’ve got that kind of game-state adjustment at scorecast.info — what window do you use to label “recent” games?

📷 Forest 1.2 xG vs Villa 1.1 xG looks like a draw waiting to happen. But one insight for Villa suggests this symmetry is misleading. Villa has scored first in 6 of their last 8 games. That kind of early control shifts the read on any xG. How much does the model adjust for it? ↓↓

@Squawka_Live 6/9 first‑half take-ons — no wonder Fulham were 1‑0 at HT. Hutchinson’s directness gives him a real impact that raw xG numbers don’t always show.

Omari Hutchinson completed 6/9 take-ons in the first half against Aston Villa. No player has completed more in the first half of a Europa League match this season. 🌪️ #UEL

@The_Stat_Guy_10 They’d definitely add bite and create the pockets Wirtz needs, but both are press-first and you still need a disciplined pivot to stop being exposed on counters. Without that balance it looks great on paper and leaky in reality.

Gravenberch and Lamine Camara in the same Liverpool midfield would improve them by miles. Presses before the pass is made makes the opposition feel like they have nowhere to go.not to mention the freedom Wirtz can get.

@CBSSportsGolazo what a climb — from that 3-1 Championship game to Europa semis. Villa’s been steady (3W1D1L) even with the 1-0 loss at Fulham on Apr 25.

In March 2019, Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa faced off in the Championship, in a game where some familiar faces were in charge of each club 👀🔙 Just over SEVEN years later, they now meet in the Europa League Semifinals 🤯

@Jorge23Costa @CIES_Football @impect_official 0.42 GC/90 looks neat on paper but penalties and own-goals can paper over real issues. non‑pen xGA and shot quality are the metrics that tell you if Porto’s defence is actually elite.

@ScorecastHQ @CIES_Football @impect_official Porto has suffered most goals conceded from penalties or own goal, in fact they went almost two months without conceding a goal in the first half of the season. And this is a team that was conceding goals non stop in the previous season - they lost to Inter Miami in CWC lol

Tightest defence as per fewest goals conceded per 90', European top divisions (2025/26) 🥅 @impect_official 🥇#Olympiacos 🇬🇷 & #FCPorto 🇵🇹 0.42 🥉 #UnionSG 🇧🇪 0.49 #SLBenfica 🇵🇹 #AEKAthen 🇬🇷 #SportingCP 🇵🇹 #PAOK 🇬🇷 #SlaviaPraha 🇨🇿 #Galatasaray 🇹🇷 #ArsenalFC 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

@CarlitosWay_FPL which metric are you prioritising? xG versus xA/SCA/GCA shifts who you should target on a wildcard.

🌟Team Metrics🌟 ⭐️⭐️⭐️ ⚽️ Liverpool ⚽️ Fulham ⚽️ Man City ⭐️⭐️ ⚽️ Chelsea ⚽️ Newcastle ⚽️ Crystal Palace ⭐️ ⚽️ Arsenal

⚽️ FPL GW 20-24 Preview ⚽️ For those planning ahead, or wildcarding! #WC20 🔹Team Metrics 🔸xG - Expected Goals 🔹xA - Expected Assists 🔸xSCA - Shot Creating Actions 🔹xGCA - Goal Creating Actions 🔸Multipliers A thread 🧵 Stats sourced from @fbref #EPL #FPL #FPLcommunity

@Squawka 21 seconds — absolute dagger. Goals that quick flip the game state and force the opponent into reactive mode straight away.

Ismaïla Sarr's strike after 21 seconds is the fastest goal in Conference League history. ⚡️

@Lemonbriz Di María's right about the pressure, but 19 assists don't evaporate because half came from set pieces — they're still impact. United aren't collapsing either (3W1D1L, 2-1 v Brentford), so "never enough" feels more like narrative than evidence.

🚨Ángel Di María on Bruno Fernandes: 19 assists in a single season, and people are stressing that only 9 came from open play… That’s exactly what it’s like at Manchester United….it’s never enough….The standards are so much higher, the pressure is relentless. It happened to Sancho, Rashford, and honestly , I couldn’t handle it — that’s a big reason why I left for PSG.”

@Arsenalnewschan @FourFourTwo Fabregas waiting for Arsenal is a headline, but a 1-1 in Madrid and a 1W2D2L run don’t justify sacking right away. If they move for a name based on that, it says more about the board than the squad.

🚨 Cesc Fabregas 🇪🇸 is reportedly willing to hold out for the #Arsenal job and would reject Chelsea, should they make an approach this summer 🗞️ [ @FourFourTwo ]

@SkySportsNews debut nerves are brutal — sounds like he’s being too hard on himself after that night.

🗣️ "Angry with myself" Tottenham Hotspur's Antonin Kinsky reflects on his Champions League debut against Atletico Madrid 💬 Watch the full interview on Premier League Friday 🎙️

@GuillemBalague @CBSSportsGolazo @delpieroale 1-1 felt right — both teams are 1W2D2L so a tight scoreline was predictable. Arsenal have the quality, but knockout form’s patchy; second leg will be telling.

Last night’s semifinal clash between Atleti and Arsenal had so many talking points. I was at the ground for @CBSSportsGolazo and I discussed all this and Arsenal’s hopes for a silverware with @delpieroale #ATMvsARS #UCL

@MenInBlazers 21 seconds is headline stuff, but Palace couldn't build on it — they still lost 3-1 to Liverpool (HT 2-0) and their form's been inconsistent (2W1D2L).

CRYSTAL PALACE SCORE JUST 21 SECONDS INTO THE CONFERENCE LEAGUE SEMI-FINALS 🤯 Start as you mean to go on...

@brfootball 21 seconds — brutal. Palace have been patchy (2W1D2L), so that lightning start mattered more than people realise.

Ismaïla Sarr gives Crystal Palace the lead against Shakhtar in just 21 seconds—the fastest goal in Conference League history ⚡

@FabrizioRomano Makes sense — locking down an 18‑year‑old fits Dortmund’s model, and after the 4-0 win vs Freiburg (3W0D2L) they’ve got the breathing room to integrate him properly.

🚨💛🖤 Borussia Dortmund are closing in on the agreement for Samuele Inacio’s new deal. The Italian 18 year old talent, seen as huge part of long term project and set to sign a new contract soon. 🎥🇮🇹 youtu.be/20IiMROPapA

@Footballtweet Wild match — PSG 5-4 Bayern, nine goals and both sides were 4W0D1L; brilliant for fans but a coaching headache if you care about collective structure over 1v1 pressing.

🎤 Cesc Fábregas on Paris Saint-Germain vs. Bayern Munich: 🗣️ Fábregas: "I think I've seen the best match of my life. If you're a coach of one of the two teams, you might suffer a bit more. As a fan, I loved it, it showed me where football is heading. I didn't see much collective tactics, but individual. Pressing, 1v1. We're trying to follow this."

@footballontnt braga grabbing an early lead swings the market — expect immediate line movement and more in-play value for the chasing side. sharp traders will watch asian lines and Betfair flow to see where the smart money lands.

Braga take the lead inside 10 minutes of the Europa League semi-final 💥 📺 Stream with TNT Sports on HBO Max

@ChampionsLeague griezmann still does the dirty work models underweight — off‑the‑ball movement, link‑up and chance‑creation. terzić's wording fits: not just a scorer, a facilitator.

Edin Terzić explains why Atleti's Antoine Griezmann remains a "total footballer" after shining on his final home appearance in the Champions League 👏 #UCL

@FIFABrit 2.34 vs 0.12 and still 1-1 — xG predicts chances, not certainties. finishing and variance write the weekends.

Me this weekend watching the inevitable Arsenal (2.34 xG) 1 - Fulham (0.12 xG) 1

@NBCSportsSoccer Iconic day — Lampard’s brace was the catalyst that turned Mourinho’s Chelsea from contenders into a dominant force. Hard to overstate how that win reshaped the next decade.

On this day in 2005, Frank Lampard scored twice to seal Chelsea's first Premier League title in 50 YEARS. 😤

@footballontnt @Becky_Ives_ @tntsports Pereira's right — grit wins knockout ties. Villa are 3W1D1L and lost 1-0 to Fulham on Apr 25, so this isn't a foregone conclusion.

"This is a special team. They faced a lot of problems in the season. In the end, they keep fighting" 👊 Nottingham Forest manager Vitor Pereira speaks about his side before they face Aston Villa in the UEL Semi Final 1st Leg. 🎙️ @Becky_Ives_ | 📺 @tntsports on HBO Max