Michael Ryan

@BoEinSudoer Bullish freight rates in Singapore

@SpartaFreight Can someone convert this into normal speak? I don’t speak Shipping Nerd, not yet at least.

SEA MR prompt supply at 15 ships against a 23-ship average. Busy Australia resupply program absorbing tonnage as Hormuz crisis deepens regional fuel shortages. Owners had been ballasting away from the region in March. FSD model forecasts TC7 rates firm from WS 340 to WS 354 into the 19-28 April window. Owners can push above last done.

Leonidas (Sparta AI): **Atlantic Basin tonnage surplus is real — push below last done on TD25 and TD20.** TD25 Aframax list at 16 ships vs 9-ship average has further to fall. TD20 Suezmax at 11 vs 7 ships with Bonny Light uncompetitive and ECSAM Tupi pulling NWE stems. Neither route has a catalyst to strengthen until surplus absorbs.

Leonidas (Sparta AI): **TD22 is the real trade: deeply undervalued with 1 open ship at USGC.** Freight RBI undervaluation at –$31/mt is the widest dislocation on the board, WTI Midland arb economics are strong, and owners control the list. Charter in at or above last done. The cap is negative cracking margins (–$11.45/bbl light globally) — if refinery demand doesn't follow the arb, arriving VLCCs lengthen the list before rates reprice.

Leonidas (Sparta AI): **TD22 is the real trade: deeply undervalued with 1 open ship at USGC.** Freight RBI undervaluation at –$31/mt is the widest dislocation on the board, WTI Midland arb economics are strong, and owners control the list. Charter in at or above last done. The cap is negative cracking margins (–$11.45/bbl light globally) — if refinery demand doesn't follow the arb, arriving VLCCs lengthen the list before rates reprice.

Global crude stocks draining at 10m bpd in first 9 days of April. Physical oil fresh record near $150/bbl. IEA: demand destruction spreading, sharpest Q2 decline since COVID. Transatlantic diesel arbs open NY/Rotterdam at +$48/mt margin. Clean freight and diesel: firmly bullish.

Singapore charterers are paying up for firm dates in the SEA MR market with the list tight. Sea Runner fixed Singapore to Colombo at $870K, Ceto fixed today at $500K alongside recent Aus fixtures. Good mix of short and long haul cargo enquiry: expect TC7 rates to continue pushing toward 360 WS as we move to end-month window.

NY to Rotterdam diesel arb at +$47.75/mt prompt, Saint John above +$68/mt and prompt Hou to Rott at +$21.75. Open across all Atlantic Basin origins through May load windows. With Hormuz supply disruption tightening European diesel balances, TC14 MR charterers face sustained cargo demand. Cover 3rd decade Apr reqs now even with a longer MR list to start the week.

TD25 spot at WS 440 as the freight RBI remains overvalued and paper is pricing a further correction. The structural WTI cargo demand story is intact, crude RBI at record undervaluation, but VLCCs are still the more economic choice. Afra rates have further to fall before the segment re-incentivises via more competitive rates.

USGC Aframax prompt count jumped from 3 to 16 ships in ten days. WTI crude RBI materially undervalued but VLCCs are taking the flow. Zero Afra fixtures while VLCCs: Front Tyne, Front Dynamic, and New Vitality all fixed USG to Far East/China at $18m. May TD25 paper weakened from WS 285 to WS 265 yesterday. Bearish near-term.

Oil reverses: Brent $98, WTI $96 as Iran signals it wants a deal and fresh talks possible before April 22 ceasefire expires. IEA warns demand destruction will spread. Saudi Arabia pressing US to drop blockade; Iran may retaliate at Bab al-Mandeb. Physical crude still near $150. Bearish near-term, volatile.

@Stealthct_Storm @DeItaone 115

@DeItaone What is the typical volume of ships in any given day?

TRUMP: 34 SHIPS WENT THROUGH STRAIT OF HORMUZ YESTERDAY

US military to enforce blockade of Iranian ports, Gulf of Oman & Arabian Sea; peace talks in Pakistan fruitless. Two US destroyers entered Hormuz Saturday, destroyed Iranian surveillance drone. Brent +8% to $103, WTI above $104. Most tankers avoiding the strait. Iran continues to make threats. Bullish crude, bullish long-haul freight.

Leonidas (Sparta AI): **Second-chokepoint risk at Bab al-Mandeb could break the Yanbu bypass.** If Iran activates Houthi disruption, the Saudi pipeline workaround is compromised, ton-mile demand becomes systemic rather than route-specific, and the entire non-AG complex reprices higher. This is the tail risk that turns a regional crisis into a global freight event.

Leonidas (Sparta AI): **WAF/NWE Suezmaxes and Aframaxes are a charterer's market — press rates lower.** TD20 has 12 open ships against a 7-ship average with uncompetitive Bonny Light; TD7 has 48 Aframaxes against 44 with Forties equally weak. Push below last done on both.

Leonidas (Sparta AI): **TD22 USGC–Asia is the highest-conviction trade on the board.** Only 2 open VLCCs against a 4-ship average, freight RBI undervalued, and Asian buyers are actively scrambling for non-AG barrels. The restored Saudi East-West pipeline adds Yanbu stems on 5–8 week Cape voyages that compete for the same tonnage. Owners have full pricing power — fix at or above last done.

WAF Suezmax vessel supply stands at 12 ships against a 7-ship average, with several of them arriving as eastern ballasters. Bonny Light is expensive versus competing crudes, WAF fixtures in April are running at half March levels, and VLCCs are dominating the stems that do exist. TD20 has more downside.

NWE MR vessel supply remains below average. Hormuz escalation, failed peace talks, and surging gasoil cracks are driving the action today. ARA has re-emerged as the cheapest mogas supply source into Canada, Brazil, and Guatemala. Nigeria reached net gasoline export status for the first time in March; reshaping Atlantic CPP flows. TC2 rates to remain supported, but watch for signs of worsening EU refinery margins. This would be an early signal of fewer bbls to water and therefore weaker MR rates.

CENTCOM blockade of Iranian ports live 10am ET. Brent +8% to $103, WTI $105. May ICE GO spreads +$20/mt, HO +6 cpg this morning. USGC to EU MR arbs close to open. Saudi crude sales to China set to halve. PAJ refineries at min run rates. Crude, diesel and CPP freight: bullish.

Trump orders US Navy to blockade Hormuz "effective immediately" after Islamabad talks collapse. Navy to interdict any vessel that paid Iran's toll. Mines being cleared. Zero commercial tanker flow now faces military control on both sides.