Storm Trading

𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗜𝗻 Yesterday I wrote: markets at all-time highs, $VIX below 20, oil below 90. That tells you everything you need to know. Despite what some doomsayers say, the rally itself is the message. When I said “priced in,” a lot of people pushed back, pointing to the Global Financial Crisis. They said: “That wasn’t priced in, so you’re obviously wrong.” But that misses the point. There’s a reason there’s a movie like The Big Short. It shows exactly what happened. Only a small group of people truly understood the risks in the mortgage market. The knowledge wasn’t widespread. Capital didn’t move until it did. And once understanding spread, everything repriced violently and fast. That’s the key difference. Back then, very few people knew. Today, everyone “knows.” Scroll through X and you’ll see the same narratives repeated endlessly. Crude oil risk. Widening credit spreads. Software valuations. Private equity stress.. you name it…. If every average person is talking about it, it’s not hidden information. It may not be 100% priced in, but it’s probably 90% there. Markets don’t wait for certainty. They move on awareness. And when something becomes common conversation, it’s no longer an edge. That’s why there’s no real value in what you read or debate on X about these topics. It’s already in the price.

@TheValueTrade Or just trade the etfs. $BOAT or $SEA

Recently I have been sharing a lot of shipping charts. Shipping isn’t “boring”… it’s the backbone of global trade. 80–90% of goods move by sea, so when the economy grows, shipping demand follows.. Big opportunity right now in some shipping names... Yet nobody talks about them.. $ZIM $DAC $FRO $TNK $INSW $NMM $GNK $KEX

$SPX down 1% while $VIX is RED - that’s hedge unwinding. When protection comes off into weakness, it usually signals exhaustion in fear. For this Iran-driven cycle, it suggests we’re getting close to a local bottom in my view.

@vulturetrades $SPY

I’m officially restarting the $500 to $1 Million 2026 Challenge on Monday! I’m opening a FREE private X group where you’ll see my exact entries & exits live. To be added: Like + Comment “$SPY” (You must be following)

We obsess over what AI can do. The deeper question is what it believes. Every model carries the values of whoever built it. Most of us never ask whose.

@rich_arny @KobeissiLetter x.com/ZeeContrarian1…

@KobeissiLetter Fair point. My only worry is that this was such a ripe environment for crypto, especially BTC to trade exceptionally well. Loss of faith in fiat currency and in the USD should have got this thing rocketing. If tha couldn’t, what will ?

There is one common denominator with every crypto crash in history. They always seem like the "end of crypto" and they always become rounding errors in the long run. The same will happen with the 2025-2026 bear market.

If you’re buying Bitcoin now, I’m genuinely curious about the thesis. Is it the future of money? That’s what I heard five years ago, and I still can’t buy much with it. Is it a hedge against inflation? The data suggests otherwise. Is it a counter to dollar devaluation? That hasn’t held up. Is it a hedge against global turmoil? We’ve seen that fail as well. By simple deduction, there’s no clear reason to buy Bitcoin other than to speculate on price. If you have a different thesis, I’d be happy to hear it.

@Richards_Karin Very sad news Kevin. Karin was an absolute legend in the SA Twitter/X space. Our deepest condolences.

Karin Richards, my dear wife of 38 years has sadly passed away, she had been ill for a very long time and fighting hard but unfortunately can fight no more. I am sure you will all miss her posts as will I. Her loving husband. Kevin Richards

@CMEGroup just open a window, its cold AF in Chicago

@sciencegirl Humanity, as it has always been.

In your opinion what is the biggest threat to humanity

The effective Fed Funds Rate remains firmly in restrictive territory relative to CPI. It is the widest gap since 2009. For those worried about re-inflation, the Fed still has plenty of room to ease before policy turns neutral.#inflation #CPI #FederalReserve #Fed

@Trader_Bran You obviously mean a VERY short term top in gold.

If you thought the FOMC last week was dovish its because you were likely watching the price action in risk markets. Rates markets tell you it was a hawkish meeting with the FED now preparing markets for a MUCH higher neutral rate. It came via the dot plot with only 1 cut expected next year and one in 2027. In reality, if the labor market muddles along over coming months. Its highly likely the FED has one more cut before pausing at a 3.5% neutral rate. Risk Markets have yet to digest this but the SOFR Futures have priced out 24bp of cuts since last weeks FOMC. This higher neutral rates is bullish near term for dollar. And like i said earlier this week. Gold has made a short term top with rates pushing higher and the dollar bid.

Two-Way Tape Developing. The market is finally starting to rotate, and volatility is creeping back in. As I mentioned yesterday, with the VIX ticking higher and bonds rotating lower (meaning higher rates since the last FOMC meeting), we’re finally seeing action that isn’t just straight up and I think that will continue. I don’t view this as the start of a bear trend, but more as a consolidation near the highs with some reasonable pullbacks. Bulls never give up easily, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they keep knocking on the door of new highs in the coming sessions. Still, yesterday was telling: you’ll now start to see sellers show up on rallies. For day traders, that means it’s finally a two-way tape. You can start to look at the short side...small and smart, and if the market proves it can’t hold support, then maybe there’s more downside to work with. But overall, I still favor buying dips over selling rallies. Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum): Still strong, with both technical and fundamental reasons to stay bid. They may slow down and consolidate, especially if equities crack, but I still see them as leaders to the upside. Not interested in short setups here. Bonds: Stuck in consolidation. With the Fed unlikely to move much beyond 25–75bps over the next six months, I don’t expect significant action. Oil: Classic range trade. Bids at the low 60s, offers at the high 60s. My least favorite market right now, but if it breaks out of that range, it could get interesting. Crypto: Weakness continues, but in this environment it’s always one headline away from catching a bid. I don’t trade futures here much, more spot, but I still view weakness as a buying opportunity into year-end. NinjaTrader Live – Today’s Lineup Morning panel with @ces921, @chigrl, @NinjaTrader_Jim Special guest: @todd_harrison Premarket retail prop talk with @fundedfamily @elpatronfff Trading the market live with @traderkane - @leothetiger - @thetastowe42 📺 Join us here: youtube.com/live/SyoEMkBS7… Get my detailed daily morning note—free, delivered straight to your inbox—by subscribing here: anthonycrudele.com/newsletter/ Cheers, DELI

@David_Tracey Yes. Extremely irritating but typical.

Speech leaked presumably

@tucker_jct @LIZJNYshow @Tony_BATtista @TraderNickyBAT Ouch

2 tranches 0 DTE $SPX, collected 12,855. watching with GTCs set at 40% @LIZJNYshow #lizjny @Tony_BATtista @TraderNickyBAT

@JamesBruce131 @G3k0 @Tradeify How are you getting around the @Tradovate ban on South African residents?

@G3k0 For now just @Tradeify and will add on some more Tradovate accounts too

Only on twitter will you have a fully automated algo doing 3% a month with less than 1% drawdown and you do not have to touch anything just optimise and someone says this is bad. Some people are just out of touch with reality.

Never add to a losing trade: - 1. Accept the Loss Early – Losses are part of the game, not personal failures. 2. Set a Predefined Stop – Decide your max loss before entering. 3. Respect the Stop – No “just one more candle” mindset. Exit as planned. 4. No Averaging Down – Resist the urge to "get a better price" on a bad trade. 5. Review & Reflect – Ask: “Was it the setup or my execution?” Then learn.

@JSE_Daily It was the way they retaliated, purely symbolic with warnings ahead of time. And with the same amount of missiles as bombs that were dropped on the nuclear sites. Merely an attempt to save face.

YES!!

So what happened this year? A “bear market” that lasted less than a high schooler’s first time—just enough to show how meaningless that label really is. “Sell in May” got smoked—seasonality is a joke, A death cross, a Hindenburg-whatever—just more bullshit wrapped in fancy names. Technical analysis? Just cloud-gazing with extra steps. “Key levels” broke… then snapped back like nothing happened. At the end of the day, the only real, actionable signal is the $VIX. Peak panic is the tell. Everything else? Noise and bullshit.

Japan’s rocketing bond yield and potential carry-trade unwind has, for me, overtures of LTCM. The smart professors had modelled the market for a cold predictability that it never had. Markets have fat tails, with many more price extremes than statistical assumptions indicate.