Brannigan Barrett

@biancoresearch This weekend we get the extension of not blowing everything up

Quick summary of the week: Monday, 48 hours almost up, we are going to blow everything up Wednesday, we are going to get a deal. Thursday, no deal, we are going to blow everything up. How many more cycles of this will we have by next week?

It’s all about controlling the narrative - as Middle East talks continue into the weekend . Trump can simply signal that given talks are progressing , it makes sense to extend the threat of bombing key infrastructure to allow for talks to continue . He is likely to extend it by at least another week. This is the tariff playbook - control the narrative for long enough to find a suitable off-ramp .

@Ericontheoffer What about interest rates ? Central banks won’t hike unless oil stays above $100 for long periods of time . The stock market doesn’t need more cuts to go to record highs . Cuts just insure double digit returns for 2026!

@Trader_Bran Hello Brannigan, but what about interest rates?

They talking peace - the worst is behind us - red lines have been drawn with further escalation highly unlikely . That means you go long risk for rally to record highs. Risk markets don’t need oil at $69 again, they simply need to know the probability of going back above $100 is low. Trump used exact same palybook with tariffs - he announced 30 days to calm markets about tarriffs - tarrifs were never removed but the uncertainty was. Long risk markets !

@MrMBrown Finally an intelligent post amongst all the noise ! Absolutely spot on - it was same for tariffs!

Signal > Noise Have there been talks? Who knows...does it matter!? The signal is - Trump has pulled back on his ultimatum, Trump is seemingly seeking de-escalation & Trump looks to be trying to find an off-ramp That feels like the most important bit right now imo

@HeliasTrading Jeff you alive ?!

@Trader_Bran When you start using German proverbs that’s not a really good sign Jeff

Gold = throwing the baby out with the bath water !!!

@sam_kb_ Well there is that and fact that markets won’t tolerate it going beyond this week. I suspect vol goes hard bid early tomorrow and then the white flag is waved

@Trader_Bran Flash in the pan is the new way to do war, The political base doesn’t support these gradual, slow wars that are drawn out. Heavy and fast, send everything mental for a few weeks and then pull it back quickly. That’s the play.

My thoughts on the Middle East conflict .

@finnjclancy Well oil above $100 and yields flying higher- means we closer to the end than most expect

@Trader_Bran a couple massive new accounts opened 6 figure positions on Polymarket betting on a creasefire before end of month

@Monometrics Cheapest option to defend is hike rates

@Trader_Bran You think they defend it? Could be a huge move if they don’t, no?

You take out their gas and you cripple the economy . It’s like switching off the electricity . This is a major escalation that will see retaliation

@Monometrics weak currency and buying expensive oil with weak yen - stagflation . Central bank won’t hike despite being behind the curve. Currency will only weaker further with ongoing conflict

@Trader_Bran Thoughts on yen @Trader_Bran

@Rory_Johnston I heard the same commentary about Tariffs last year. All the smart people said how tariffs will cause long term damage with supply disruption and higher structural inflation and yet start of 2026 we were at record highs and inflation dropping back to target. Overthinking it!

I still think Trump will TACO—because he *has* to TACO. Oil loss it too big, too politically untenable. While the damage is already extensive and recovery will already be a months-long ordeal, it can get so, so much worse and this is fundamentally a crisis of lost time. People will push back and say it isn't up to Trump anymore. But while there are two other major parties in this war, Trump remains the 1) most important, and 2) most movable by external pressures (like, say, oil prices), so it's gotta be him.

Oil trades $99 off the Yanbu strike and sells off straight line. Reality is market cares more about the overnight newsflow of president calling for halt to infrastructure strikes. Ruling out more strikes on infrastructure is de-escalation.

@gawkgawkcapital Not sure you want to be short long end bonds . President hates 4.30% 10yr rates . So no desire for higher yields. Not saying it can’t happen but I learnt long time ago- never bet against the person with biggest bank balance .

@Trader_Bran I agree. The better play to bet on a longer lasting conflict to me seems to lie on equities, long-end bonds, maybe crypto which barely moved since it started. Thoughts?

@gawkgawkcapital It’s not just pricing in TACO- world cannot function with oil >$100. Therefore it’s not worth it to bet on prices being above that for long. So there is zero assymetry in being long .

And every market is still pricing in a TACO. After the Ukraine invasion, Russia bypassed sanctions through their parallel infrastructure, and WTI peaked at $130. We have an actual 20% of global supply disruption and it peaked at... $120 trading close to $100. I'd say this gets worse before it gets better.

This is about 85% right but I would add - the less options you have available the sooner we reach stale mate where only option left is talks . No Joint effort means the off-ramp comes 1 step closer

@RAkasunPerera They hiked prior to start of Middle East war

@Trader_Bran But Australia (RBA) hiked rates 🤔

Any central bank that chooses to hike into an oil price spike will create its own stagflation. Hence why initially they treat it as transitory. Expect to see ‘it’s too early for policy response ‘ type commentary and ‘watching closely ‘

@Ty_inwestuj Only time I get Uszka is at Wigilia

@Trader_Bran Perhaps ask fot barszcz with uszka 😆

True Love is when your polish wife lets you prepare the perogi !!!