Topher

what do you all think if we stop the JUP buyback? we spent more than 70m on buyback last year and the price obviously didn’t move much. we can use the 70m to give out for growth incentives for existing and new users. should we do it?

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VC deals are back to 2017 levels Just another chart that points to this feeling that it's so over

The home of multiplayer trading games is here. Every match is an opportunity to rewrite your story. Make sure its a story worth telling.

The home of multiplayer trading games is here. Every match is an opportunity to rewrite your story. Make sure its a story worth telling.

POST-MORTEM: The "Andes-to-Alpha" Blowup Date: February 6, 2026 Subject: Liquidation Event – "Victoria Peak" Capital (HK) Desk: Exotic/Macro RV We are receiving confirmation of a catastrophic unwind involving a prominent Hong Kong-based volatility desk this morning. The dust is still settling, but the anatomy of the blowup appears to be a classic case of correlation breakdown meets illiquidity. Here is the breakdown of the $450M implosion that just hit the tape. 1. The "Genius" RV Setup The fund, which we’ll call "Victoria Peak" for anonymity, was running a highly levered Relative Value (RV) book designed to harvest yield from disconnected emerging market betas. • Short Leg: Colombian Biotech basket (illiquid, sensitive to localized regulatory/drug-approval news). • Long Leg: Bitcoin via IBIT (BlackRock ETF) Spread Options. • The Thesis: They were betting on a "Risk-On" global environment where crypto beta (IBIT) would outpace obscure LATAM healthcare (Colombian Bio), effectively hedging the crypto volatility with the biotech short. 2. The Exogenous Shock: The TIA/EIGEN Collapse The structural flaw wasn't in the main legs, but in the collateral management. The fund was using a basket of "Modular Blockchain" assets as cross-margin collateral. • Specifically, they were heavily exposed to the TIA/EIGEN ratio (Celestia vs. EigenLayer). • The Event: A governance fork rumor caused TIA to nosedive while EIGEN stayed bid. The ratio collapsed -34% in 4 hours. • This vaporized their collateral buffer. Because the Colombian Biotech market is so thin, they couldn't cover the short without pushing the price against themselves. 3. The Contagion: Puking the Macro Book With the crypto-collateral worthless and the Prime Broker (PB) issuing an immediate margin call, Victoria Peak had to liquidate their only liquid assets to stay alive. • The Victim: Their macro hedge book—Long KRW / Short Copper. • Usually a play on Asian industrial manufacturing slowing down, this was their safe haven. • They were forced to panic-sell KRW and buy back Copper futures at market execution. This caused a temporary 40-pip dislocation in USDKRW spot markets and a random spike in COMEX Copper. 4. The Kill Shot: Enter Cyant Arb The market smelled blood, but one desk acted fastest. Cyant Arb, a notoriously aggressive proprietary trading firm known for predatory liquidity provision, identified the distress flows immediately. • Cyant’s algos detected the correlation break between the TIA liquidation and the forced KRW selling. • They widened spreads on the IBIT options and stepped away from the bid on the Biotech stocks, trapping Victoria Peak in a liquidity vacuum. • The Liquidation: Cyant eventually stepped in to act as the counterparty of last resort, buying the fund's KRW/Copper bags at a massive discount while simultaneously squeezing them out of the IBIT options. Result: Victoria Peak is effectively flat (and arguably insolvent). Cyant Arb booked an estimated +18% PnL on the session.

Crazy story: A bank analyst published a report showing Kalshi users lose money even faster than sports gamblers, so Kalshi first tried to pressure the data provider to change their data and then accused them and the analyst of conspiring to extort them when that doesn’t work.