Mostafa Safaie

Nowruz Mobarak! 🌷 As spring begins and the new year arrives, we send our warmest wishes to everyone celebrating Nowruz.

دیاسپورای واقعی(غربت) ایرانیان مخالف جنگ هستیم. از وطن رانده و از قربت جنگ طلبان مانده. هموطنان خارجی جنگ طلب به ما برچسب پرستو و مزدور می‌زنند و فامیل و دوستان ایران اینترنشنالی حق ما را برای نگرانی از ویرانی محکوم می‌کنند. حرف از آزادی می‌زنند اما تحمل نظر مخالف جنگ را ندارند.

.@realDonaldTrump Targeting Iran civilian infrastructure that endangers the lives, health, and daily survival of ordinary people is nothing less than a war against the people of Iran. Such acts are indefensible in principle and deserve unequivocal condemnation.

I see two major groups of views among Iranians regarding foreign intervention. I disagree with the analysis of both for reasons I will mention at the end. And my own view is firmly against any military attack by another country. Group 1 - There is a group within Iranian society that welcomes the prospect of a foreign attack. They've always existed, but were a far smaller minority in the past. But the events of the past 2 months have radicalized many people and this group has grown significantly. It's not unusual to encounter at all. I don't have precise information to talk about a majority or minority, but it's not small. Not just diaspora, but very much a thing inside too. This group's argument ultimately comes down to it not being possible for Iranians to overthrow their government by themselves, because it is ruthless and willing to use any amount of violence needed to crush threats. The distance between the people and government has grown to a point that the rulers resemble an occupying force that is only after its own interests, which radically diverge from the will of the population. They point out the horrendous trajectory of the country on all fronts & that continuing down this path is worst possible outcome. There is no chance of them correcting their path or reforming. Some members of this group will also point out to examples of the US successfully doing regime change wars in Germany, Japan, and other places, where in the long run the countries ended up on a better path. As such, they are willing to accept foreign help to end the current nightmare, even if that comes at an initial price of some destruction to the country and deaths (because they argue under leadership that would happen anyway) - at least enough to 'level the playing field' and giving protesters a chance. Group 2 - There is a second group that opposes any military intervention and points out the experiences of countries like Iraq and Libya. This group does not support the Islamic Republic, but points out that a foreign war will make things even worse and raise the prospects of the balkanization of Iran itself or a prolonged civil war that kills hundreds of thousands & goes on for years. Even if the status quo is horrible & chances for relief in the immediate term seem very unlikely that doesn't mean any bad decision made out of desperation should be made. Things can always get even worse. Yes, Iran's current state is horrid, compared to its own previous trajectory and potential & compared to Turkey and the Persian Gulf states ... but it's still better than what was happening with the daily car bombings in Baghdad in the 2000s & the sectarian purges there Given all this, they resist the Pied Piper song of Trump and remain against any foreign attack. My View - I don't think Iraq 2003 or Libya 2011 are the most likely scenarios for an intervention. And certainly not Germany or Japan in the 1940s in the conclusion of a World War. It is tempting to think about a near perfect Venezuela scenario with very minimal casualties or damage to infrastructure, but the Iranian government is far stronger and isn't in the Western Hemisphere. The more likely scenario (and the one I fear the most) is something like Iraq 1991. This would be a prolonged aerial campaign in which the US would decimate Iranian nuclear, missile, and other military capabilities. And likely do major damage to infrastructure. Even if it comes at the cost of some American casualties and damage. The end result would not be regime change. It would be a significantly weakened, more poor Iran, with an even bigger loss to quality of life, and even more intense International isolation. You'd have a situation similar to Iraq in the 1990s. But domestically you'd still have the Islamic Republic in power and all the bad things about & hopelessness would be even worse. This is not the only possible future. But it's what I see as becoming more and more likely.

As the Iranian regime imposes a forced forgetting of the massacres in January, it has begun targeting not only wounded protesters but medical workers, who have borne witness to some of the worst atrocities. newyorker.com/news/the-lede/…

Statement from the Norwegian Nobel Institute The Norwegian Nobel Committee is deeply appalled by credible reports detailing the brutal arrest, physical abuse, and ongoing life‑threatening mistreatment of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi, currently detained in Iran. The Committee urgently calls upon the Iranian authorities to immediately and unconditionally release Narges Mohammadi and to guarantee her access to independent, professional medical care. Read the full statement: nobelpeaceprize.org/press/press-re…

The Iranian regime has targeted wounded protesters seeking help. In response, medical workers throughout the country have forged secret units to treat those injured in the uprising. newyorker.com/news/the-lede/…

Machine guns to machetes: Weapons that massacred thousands in Iran bbc.in/4razK6u

گزارش تحقیقی فرزاد صیفی‌کاران درباره سلاح‌هایی که جمهوری اسلامی ایران در دی‌ماه علیه معترضان به کار برده است. به انگلیسی. لطفا پخش کنید گزارش مهمی است.

@SasanianShah @roozbehp منم یک هفته‌ای هست با rebtel به موبایل‌های ایران زنگ میزنم

@roozbehp من خط مستقیم رو پنج روزه می‌تونم بگیرم. یعنی بدون استفاده از هیچ سیستم اینترنتی یا کارت تلفن. همین تلفن از راه دور. هربار، یک صدا به انگلیسی و فارسی میاد و می‌گه «برای ادامه تماس؛ شماره … رو وارد کنید». وارد که می‌کنی، وصل می‌شه.

این قضایای این که زنگ می‌زنی ایران، باید یک شماره ‌وارد کنی تا وصل بشه، تا کی قراره پابرجا باشه؟

@Fakalantari جناب مدرکی دارید؟؟؟

انگل‌زاده؛ جواد اشتیاق، نوهٔ دختریِ امامی کاشانی،با غارت معادن سنگ ایران و پشت نقاب «خیریه»، حالا در لندن مشغول زندگی لاکچری است.

The protest death toll in Iran could top 30,000, according to local health officials. time.com/7357635/more-t…

If the regime says "I have stopped killing people" the answer should be: 1. The grand Ayatollah, the government and the commanders of the militias should be brought to justice and leave their offices. 2. A transitional government should takeover from the Khomeinists. 3. A special international tribunal should be formed to prosecute those responsible for the massacres. The dimension of the mass killings doesn't allow this regime to continue to rule. @POTUS @SecRubio @SenTedCruz

رضا شاه از ایرانی فروپاشیده کشوری شکوفا برساخت. وقتی دید ماندنش‌در قدرت ایران را ویران خواهد کرد استعفا داد. محمد رضا شاه در اوج شکوفایی ایران وقتی گمان برد ادامه سلطنت تنها با خونریزی شدنی است از ایران رفت. خامنه‌ای کشتی ایران ‌را به گل نشانده و میخواهد با خون بماند.شرم ندارد.

Donald Trump is so obviously going to annex Greenland. And European leaders will respond with unparalleled levels of "monitoring the situation".

no reason!! You killed more than a hundred people from my family.

By what right were almost all these people turned into stateless refugees?

@roozbehp @arash_tehran مصطفی تاجزاده، نرگس محمدی، نسرین ستوده، شیرین عبادی و...

@arash_tehran در جمعی خانوادگی در امریکا از من همین سؤال پرسیده شد و من هم دقیقاً همین جواب را دادم. طرف بالکل تاجزاده را نمی‌شناخت!

سید مصطفی تاجزاده

Destruction of Saint George Statue by Israeli Forces Sparks Outcry Over Treatment of Christian Heritage The "only democracy in the Middle East" bulldozed a Christian saint. This is what happens when religious fanatics get a state and an army: every faith becomes their enemy.

Hi Melanie, I've been involved in the Palestine cause for 2 decades. When people learn I'm Jewish in the Palestine cause, they embrace me. Every single time. I cannot even think of a single exception. In fact, most are curious about Judaism, want to understand it better. Your ignorance is only exceeded by your racism and love for genocide. Every time you open your mouth you and endangering Jews by telling the world Judaism is all about apartheid and genocide.