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Andrew Pogue@UnderlyingValue·8h

@danielgladis You’re looking at the wrong producers! Plenty mid/small cap that will print at $75-80.

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Daniel Gladiš@danielgladis·8h

Crude oil futures are in deep backwardation, suggesting a relatively rapid return to pre-war prices. However, the stock prices of some oil producers have risen so high that they implicitly factor in a prolonged period of high oil prices. Which of these two views is correct?

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Andrew Pogue@UnderlyingValue·10h

$TNK continues to trade too low, imo. A couple aspects re: the thesis: 1) oil markets are dislocated. Barrels that are online cannot get delivered to the buyer willing to pay the highest price... creating a huge arb opportunity for those able to buy the supply and book the boat (causing price insensitivity: the boat fee is a drop in the bucket for the cash they're making). It also adds significant distance to overall charters as routes are longer - e.g. as India sources barrels from the US vs Saudi Arabia. 2) high exposure to spot rates. 3) the balance sheet is a fortress with a third of the market cap in net cash. 4) significant VLCC capacity is trapped and they're too big to re-route through channels like the Suez canal and around the Cape. That displacement is pushing charterers toward Aframax and Suezmax tonnage - TNK's wheelhouse. I don't see the dislocation resolving soon. The infrastructure damage isn't a quick fix. Take this and multiply it for the issue with finding LNG carriers. I just can't find any good investments to take advantage of the perceived opp (DM me if you have any ideas!).

Bought an old friend, Teekay ( $TNK ) today. Older Afra/Suez crude specialist. > My diligence points to low exposure to Hormuz (not surprising with these ship types) > $11.4K/d breakeven, every $5K above this adds $55M in CF (fixtures going into Q1 were $50K+) > MC: $2.25B, EV: $1.4B, '25 income from ops: $300M

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Andrew Pogue@UnderlyingValue·2d

Working on a new write-up. The pitch: An opportunity to invest in beneficiaries of an under-appreciated program that is going to result in non-dilutive increases in tangible equity above some of their already inexpensive market caps. Finishing off a couple management discussions to inform the recommendations.

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Andrew Pogue@UnderlyingValue·3d

It has been interesting to see VC's increasingly pivot from bits (tech) to atoms (physical world). Investors like @a16z are reading the tea leaves and taking action to resolve resource bottlenecks that need to be overcome to achieve tech superiority. This article does a great job leading through how they are executing a vertically integrated, autonomous copper mine in UT: a16z.news/p/copper-one-t…

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Andrew Pogue@UnderlyingValue·4d

Bobby (@BobbyKKraft) and his family have been instrumental bringing awareness and capital to unappreciated small-cap companies for a long time. It was awesome to have the opportunity to join him on his @PlanetMicroCap podcast.

Bobby Kraft@BobbyKKraft

🎙️NEW PODCAST: Underlying Value with Andrew Pogue, Founder of @UnderlyingValue on @PlanetMicroCap Podcast We discuss: - Microcap outcomes often reflect both business quality and management execution - AI is increasingly used to enhance research and idea generation - Attractive opportunities are emerging outside the U.S. - Strong investors emphasize discipline and disconfirming their own theses 📺Watch: youtube.com/watch?v=mD2Qsj… 🎧Listen: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/und… 📝Blog: planetmicrocap.com/underlying-val…

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Andrew Pogue@UnderlyingValue·6d

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Andrew Pogue@UnderlyingValue·6d

Solitron Devices ( $SODI ): I've been accumulating shares. High floor, good r/r imo. They announced a strategic assessment last month and are a beneficiary of the nightmare in the ME. Solitron is a manufacturer of high-reliability power transistors, silicon carbide MOSFETs, and power/control hybrid circuits for weapons systems that include AMRAAM and HIMARS. These systems are bottlenecked by supply. @eriksen_tim is CEO, and announced a strategic review (attached) on February 3rd outlining all paths to create shareholder value. Including a potential sale. Since all the bullish news, the company is up less than 20%. Fundamentally, the business inflected in Q3 and should continue to lap at an impressive pace. Backlog was up to $28.3M before the war, up 100%+ and 2x TTM rev. DYODD. Here is a short article about the opportunity: open.substack.com/pub/underlying…

Posted to paid subscribers this AM about a small cap defense company I've been accumulating shares in. High ceiling, great r/r. I'll add the short pitch to this post tomorrow after the close.

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Andrew Pogue@UnderlyingValue·6d

This is one of my largest holdings and highest-conviction investments. It has been showing recent strength, coinciding with insiders purchasing 1%+ of shares. Set up for a strong '26 that should improve discovery as it laps transactions that added noise to fundamentals.

I’ve tracked this obscure Nordic micro-cap for nearly a decade. It recently completed a massive transformation from a lumpy, high-cap-ex legacy business to a capital-light industrial services platform. The kicker? It’s growing, despite trading at ~2x expected 2026 EBIT. / 30% order book growth YoY / 60-80% discount to regional peers / Critical infrastructure play / 200%+ upside to reach a 9x EV/EBITDA multiple. We'll find out more shortly when Q4 earnings come out.

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Andrew Pogue@UnderlyingValue·19 Mar

Edit: 'High floor,' not ceiling.

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Andrew Pogue@UnderlyingValue·19 Mar

Posted to paid subscribers this AM about a small cap defense company I've been accumulating shares in. High ceiling, great r/r. I'll add the short pitch to this post tomorrow after the close.

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Andrew Pogue@UnderlyingValue·19 Mar

@iciupe123 Why? Great buying opportunities and still up 50% in the past year…

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II@iciupe123·19 Mar

Every Gold and Silver Bug should be IRATE at this meaningless war sending the USD and Yields sharply higher.

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Andrew Pogue@UnderlyingValue·19 Mar

@j16425646 Are these guys done diluting?

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JC@j16425646·19 Mar

$SPCB, a $36mn market electronic monitoring leader, just announced a $17mn contract with Sweden! This enhances the land and expand thesis, and Germany alone could grow to $100+mn. Trades at ~1.5X EBITDA and once traded at 10X sales. Easily a 10X. prnewswire.com/news-releases/…

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Andrew Pogue@UnderlyingValue·18 Mar

@finphysnerd Lots of cheap oil companies across the spectrum (up, mid and downstream). Smallcap upstream E&P tend to have the most torque imo. Focus on strong balance sheet and production protection (high FCF, low decline rates, net cash) Tankers -- $TNK, $STNG

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Myles@finphysnerd·18 Mar

I have a nervous gut feeling about the oil stuff. While stocks seem to be happy with the situation for now, long dated oil futures keep creeping higher. If oil stays high things could get nasty. What are people's best cheap hedges at the moment?

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Andrew Pogue@UnderlyingValue·18 Mar

@pernasresearch Management led outcomes… meanwhile they sit across the street from one another.

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Pernas Research@pernasresearch·18 Mar

Our time stamped analysis on $SOFW vs $INMD. Sofwave up over 100% since vs. Inmode down over 50%.

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Andrew Pogue@UnderlyingValue·18 Mar

Sub-10x for a business with monopoly like characteristics in a large, growing market. Shareholder friendly management, consistent execution. New write-up is live.

I'm excited to profile a large holding on the sub tomorrow morning. This company checks all the boxes I look for in an investment: / Illiquid. Under-followed. Significant float is held by management. Sales cycle lags the demonstrated forward momentum of the industry. / A long-term investment that has significant tailwinds I think will continue for a long time. If this were a private opportunity, I would lock-up my investment over the next decade at current prices. / Net cash, capital light company that should be able to fund itself through internal cash generation. / A reasonable valuation much lower than peers. Organic growth that should see a double of the top/bottom line over the next 3-5 years.

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Andrew Pogue@UnderlyingValue·18 Mar

The Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange ( $TASE.TA ) going up 225%+ in the past year to a P/S of 27x on a 1% earnings yield was not on my bingo card... who is buying this here?

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Andrew Pogue@UnderlyingValue·17 Mar

$NAT sold a 30 year suez for $40M... $TNK has 15 of them in addition to 18 Aframax.

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Andrew Pogue@UnderlyingValue·13 Mar

Bought an old friend, Teekay ( $TNK ) today. Older Afra/Suez crude specialist. > My diligence points to low exposure to Hormuz (not surprising with these ship types) > $11.4K/d breakeven, every $5K above this adds $55M in CF (fixtures going into Q1 were $50K+) > MC: $2.25B, EV: $1.4B, '25 income from ops: $300M

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Andrew Pogue@UnderlyingValue·17 Mar

@IntelligentCM Love the diligence you’ve done on them. Priced like gold is at $3k

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IFCM MicroCap@IntelligentCM·17 Mar

We continue to like Golconda Gold $GG.V. Minimal impact of $100 oil on underground operations $146m EV $30m estimated FCF in 2026 at $4300/gold Q2 2026 Re-start Summit Mine USA 2027 - Summit spinout, likely worth more than the current market cap Disc: We are wrong a lot

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Andrew Pogue@UnderlyingValue·17 Mar

I'm excited to profile a large holding on the sub tomorrow morning. This company checks all the boxes I look for in an investment: / Illiquid. Under-followed. Significant float is held by management. Sales cycle lags the demonstrated forward momentum of the industry. / A long-term investment that has significant tailwinds I think will continue for a long time. If this were a private opportunity, I would lock-up my investment over the next decade at current prices. / Net cash, capital light company that should be able to fund itself through internal cash generation. / A reasonable valuation much lower than peers. Organic growth that should see a double of the top/bottom line over the next 3-5 years.

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