Art Vandelay

In March, the yield curve briefly finished un-inverting, but shortly thereafter the 1Y-6M spread re-inverted until today. With today’s bond selloff, the 1Y-6M spread un-inverted again, so as of now the yield curve is fully normalized. We’ll see if the spread stays normalized this time, but assuming it does, that means we are very very close to the economic witching hour. The 1Y-6M spread is historically the final spread to normalize and once the yield curve fully normalizes, that’s when recession hits. If ever there was a time to be hedged against risk assets, it is now. I will post the updated chart tomorrow when the Fed’s website has the updated numbers. #recession #yields #yieldcurve

@tack0305 @GoodTexture They seem like that before recessions especially if oil is spiking like in early 2008 where the 10Y rose 75bps during the oil shock despite the economy obviously deteriorating by that point

@VandelayIndCEO @GoodTexture I’m at the point now that even when the recession comes I’m not sure TLT will get a bid … Some dynamic seems to have shifted somewhere and treasuries aren’t safe anymore.

everyone believes interest rates are going higher. those who know better will be in on the next "The Big Short" secnario

@tack0305 @GoodTexture I’m eating a lot of opportunity cost too. I’ve been sitting in bonds for over a year waiting for a recession that keeps getting dragged out

@VandelayIndCEO @GoodTexture For sure, I’ll buy some shares for minimum exposure to long term account just to own once it actually looks like it be stable … Fully agree on the opportunity cost!! I swung for a big hit and missed. Moving on to better plays. Appreciate your insight!

@tack0305 @GoodTexture I guess but you’d probably make a lot more from price appreciation once yields finally fall, and the interest would just be a bonus. But to be fair this trade is taking a long time to develop so there is a lot of opportunity cost.

@VandelayIndCEO @GoodTexture I accepted the trade off of life changing money that options can provide if I was right and the shorts got squeezed vs making a few thousand bucks over several years.

@tack0305 @GoodTexture Why use calls when you could just own it? Then if you’re too early you get paid monthly interest to wait instead of losing premiums

@GoodTexture Good luck! I built the biggest Call Options $100 1/2027 position of my life in TLT Dec - Feb ready for life changing money. False breakout in Feb, then tanked and I had to take huge losses in mid March. Those losses would be even bigger. So I used to believe that BS. Got bit.

Bessent’s resting face while interviewers ask their questions is certainly one to study. Makes me feel like I got to up my resting face game to whatever level this is.

@KobeissiLetter And you’re hyper bullish on stocks? You think the bond market can “collapse” and equities will just shrug it off?

The bond market is collapsing again. The 10Y Note Yield is now silently back above 4.40%, the same exact level that has led to multiple market interventions by President Trump. Simply put, the US economy cannot afford the 10Y Note Yield rising substantially above current levels. As we saw in April 2025 and March 2026, President Trump is highly attentive to the 4.50% level on the 10Y Note Yield, which we previously labeled as our "policy pivot" point. At the current pace, we could see 4.50%+ within a matter of days. Meanwhile, US oil prices are above $108/barrel, gas prices are up another +5% today, and 30Y mortgage rates are at 6.50%+. The bond market will soon become the center of attention. Stay ahead of the trend.

@yieldsearcher The 1Y-6M spread just flipped positive today which is historically the last yield curve spread to un-invert right before recessions hit

Crude has stopped responding to headlines. Treasuries now at a place where further selloff starts pressuring collaterals underlying risk assets. JPY is now above the 160 that TPTB had defended for so long. This is no longer about inflation/growth; the system is on edge.

BREAKING 🚨: $META Timberrrrrrrrrrrrrr 📉📉📉

@zerohedge They’re not doing that. They’re just gonna wait until the recession finally hits and then they can finish cutting

*FED SWAPS PRICE 50% OF 25BP RATE HIKE BY APRIL 2027

@MichaelMOTTCM Technical analysis doesn’t work like that for yields

That's some cup and handle forming on the 10-year

@alifarhat79 I did laugh when he said “I won’t see you next time” and walked off

Jerome Powell leaving rates unchanged in his final FOMC meeting after Trump begged him everyday to lower them

@chasedownleads @TheICHpodcast How many pressure washes is that?

@TheICHpodcast Why don't Gen Z kids just get $5m in T-Bills?

Kevin O’Leary explains you should aim to have $5,000,000 in treasury bills… “You should strive very hard if you're an entrepreneur to have $5,000,000 in T-bills”

@SmedleyButlerUS It’s funny seeing the chart squigglers predicting yields to explode higher because of technical analysis. Last I checked, yields follow macro fundamentals, not 6 month TA charts

Don't get washed out of your trades because of short timeframe stochastic fluctuations. Long duration bond market signals are almost exclusively found on long timeframes. Small timeframe moves are mostly noise. Signal >>> Noise Long Timeframes >>> Short Smoothed Data >>> Raw

@yieldsearcher Should’ve transitioned to data center chicken

Domino effect

@EricLDaugh Immediately after they pass a law mandating surveillance tech in new cars. Such great checks and balances

🚨 JUST NOW: The entirety of US Congress ERUPTS in a standing ovation when King Charles III drops this line “Magna Carta is cited in at least 160 Supreme Court cases in 1789, not least as the foundation of the principle that executive power is subject to CHECKS AND BALANCES."

@yieldsearcher Do you think it’ll spill over to high yield?

Why HYG is standing firm and resilient despite carnage in private credit.

@heresyfinancial The bear markets are much more brief because of QE. We used to have lost decades, but now they last like a year. The 2020 recession was so brief that we had not only fully recovery but new ATHs before end of year.

Most hated bull market in history. In the last ten years the market has seen four 20%+ bear markets and eight other 10%+ corrections This is historically above average and puts us already on par with the 70’s and 30’s for highest frequency of bear markets The idea that the market has done nothing but go up in the last decade is just demonstrably false

@SmedleyButlerUS FOMO always backfires, and there’s a lot of houses bought on FOMO

BIS: Real Residential Property Prices for United States* versus US10Y - With a focus on the 2007/2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC) and now *Black line = RSI SMA (14 period SMA for 14 period close RSI on quarterly chart = quarterly stock RSI)

@great_martis Yes it is. My opinion is that we get that event via recession, which temporarily halts inflation, and then the subsequent bailout leads to stagflation

@VandelayIndCEO Stagflation is a big worry. Only a deleveraging event can suppress it.

They say it’s just oil driving inflation… Sure, and Powell will deliver a 50bps emergency cut tomorrow. As the attached chart clearly shows, the broader commodity complex is firing on all cylinders: nickel, zinc, copper, aluminium, and the agriculture ETF (DBA) have all broken out strongly in recent weeks. This widespread strength across metals and soft commodities points to inflationary pressures that go well beyond crude oil alone. Don't panic; it gets much worse.