Clyde Spencer
205 posts

Clyde Spencer
@WashoeCandidate
CFO, cartoonist, carnivore. Why create tomorrow what you can create today?
Reno, NV Beigetreten Nisan 2025
95 Folgt74 Follower
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I have a strong gut feeling that, 2 weeks ago, Trump was informed about oil inventories approaching critically low levels, forcing the price to snap back to reality because soon there won't be enough to fulfill all the demand.
Since then, he has done all he could to "reopen" the SoH, to the point he ended up accepting all "unacceptable" Iran's requests that have NEVER changed since April
Now the US government is rushing to reopen the SoH, aiming to restore the traffic back to the pre-war state. This is something that, objectively, is impossible to achieve because of the mines in the water, Iran's strong grip over it, the war damage that will take months to repair, and the shipping industry unwilling to venture within the strait till there is 110% certainty the conflict won't escalate again.
As I write these words, the Israeli army is still in Lebanon and has no intention to leave it. Objectively speaking, this means there won't be any official MoU signature between the US and Iran on Friday that starts the 60-day negotiation phase. Furthermore, Trump already said in a NYT interview on Monday that if he does not reach a satisfactory agreement with Iran, especially on the Uranium topic, he will resume the military campaign.
Yesterday, a friend told me, "The market isn't trading based on reality; it is just betting the house on Trump"
So far this week, there has been no meaningful pickup of traffic in the SoH despite Trump's rush to announce it was "fully reopened"
Buyers around the world are still sitting on the sidelines; winter restocking is even over a month late, and peak driving season is starting. India is already rationing fuel, and the same is starting to happen in Russia, in case you missed the news. Refining spreads remain close to the peak too, as a sign of how strong demand is.
This is the simple reality, and traders are sticking their heads deep in the sand to avoid seeing it betting on a Trump's "miracle", but the last time I checked miracles only exist in the Bible
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
TRUMP TEAM EXPLORES OPTIONS TO REOPEN SMOOTH SHIPPING THROUGH STRAIT OF HORMUZ
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BREAKING: The US has released the full text of its 14-point "Memorandum of Understanding" with Iran.
Key terms include:
1. The US, Iran, and their allies agree to immediately and permanently end military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon
2. The US and Iran agree to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and not interfere in each other's internal affairs
3. The US and Iran commit to negotiating and reaching a final deal within 60 days, unless mutually extended
4. The US will begin removing its naval blockade immediately and fully end the blockade within 30 days
5. Iran will use its best efforts to ensure safe passage for commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days with no charge
6. The US and regional partners will develop a mutually agreed plan of at least $300 billion for Iran's reconstruction and economic development
7. The US will work toward terminating all types of sanctions against Iran, including UN, IAEA, primary, and secondary sanctions
8. Iran reaffirms that it will not procure or develop nuclear weapons and agrees to address its enriched material stockpile under IAEA supervision
9. Until a final deal is reached, Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, while the US will impose no new sanctions and deploy no additional forces
10. The US Treasury will issue waivers for Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, derivatives, and associated banking, insurance, and transportation services
11. The US will make frozen or restricted Iranian funds and assets fully available for use
12. The US and Iran will establish an executive mechanism to monitor implementation of the MOU and future compliance with the final deal
13. After signing the MOU and implementing key ceasefire, blockade, shipping, oil waiver, and asset-release provisions, the US and Iran will begin final deal negotiations
14. The final deal will be endorsed by a binding UN Security Council resolution
The memorandum will trigger a 60-day window to negotiate a final deal.
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MAJOR BREAKING: Trump's full Iran deal LEAKS out of Saudi Arabia — and it's a thousand times worse than even his harshest critics predicted.
This is a historic surrender by Trump and Vance.
#6 is a real doozy...
According to Al Arabiya, a state-owned news channel out of Saudi Arabia, the agreement between the White House and Tehran is a 14-point "Memorandum of Understanding."
Here are those points in summary:
1) Iran, the United States, and their allies declare upon signing that there will be "an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon." They vow not to "launch any hostile attack against each other" and will "will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other."
That means no more Truth Social threats from Trump ranting that a "whole civilization will die tonight."
2) The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs.
3) The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.
4) The U.S. will lift its naval blockade and "prevent any interference or obstruction against" Iran. Traffic through the region will be restored within 30 days to "full capacity" and "pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran."
The U.S. agrees to withdraw its military forces from the surrounding region within 30 days of the final agreement (which still has to be written and ratified).
5) Iran agrees to immediately "take steps" to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran.
6) The U.S. and its allies will create a "comprehensive plan" for the "rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran." It must amount to AT LEAST $300 billion. The full design of the program will be written into the final agreement.
In other words: Trump wasted billions of your tax dollars to blow up Iran and now he's spending billions more to rebuild it.
7) The U.S. agrees to end "all types of sanctions" on Iran, including those implemented by the U.N. Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency, as well as all "unilateral U.S. sanctions, both primary and secondary."
This is an absolutely MASSIVE concession. Sanctions have long been the primary tool of imperial oppression wielded by the U.S. against Iran. While ostensibly designed to weaken the Ayatollah and the theocratic mullahs, in practice the sanctions have done nothing but inflict pointless suffering and misery on the Iranian people.
Iranian elites exist in a pampered bubble much like the elites do in the United States. It's the normal people who suffer under sanctions because they're denied access to food, medicine, technology, and other imports. Because those supplies are restricted, prices inflate, choking the middle and lower classes.
With the removal of these sanctions, the Iranian people have a chance to enter into a new era of economic blossoming. In his genocidal, nihilistic quest to weaken and destroy Iran on behalf of Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump may have accidentally Made Iran Great Again.
8) The Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have agreed that the fate of enriched material and the fate of all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran’s nuclear needs, will be adequately addressed in a final agreement; the final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article.
While Trump will try to claim point 8 as some big victory, the use of the word "reiterates" here is crucial. Iran was never pursuing nuclear weapons in the first place. The White House and Israel lied about Iran's intentions as a pretext to start this war. Tellingly, Iran has not agreed to surrender its enriched uranium in this memo.
9) The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the United States will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region.
To put it more succinctly: Trump accomplished nothing.
10) The U.S. agrees to "immediately" issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like. Those waivers will no longer be required once the sanctions are lifted in full.
11) The U.S. agrees to release "frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran" so long as negotiations progress towards a "final agreement." Those funds will "fully available for use" by Iran.
12) The U.S. and Iran agree that "an implementation mechanism will be established to oversee the successful implementation of and future commitment to the Final Agreement."
The final agreement will be approved through a binding resolution of the UN Security Council.
Let us be very clear about what this deal memo represents: a complete, and total surrender by the United States of America to the Islamic Republic of Iran.
It constitutes the greatest military defeat in American history.
It's also a cause for celebration.
The deal is good for Iran, but more importantly it's good for the world. This conflict accomplished nothing beyond aiding Israeli's territorial expansion into Lebanon. Innocent people were slaughtered and Americans were forced to pay the price in the form of skyrocketing groceries and gas.
It would have been far better if Trump had never started this war. But since he did, it's a blessing that it's finally (possibly) coming to an end.
Please ❤️ and share if you think that Obama got a better deal!

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@culturaliteral1 Modern art is a money laundering operation.
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Former Israeli intelligence officer Ari Ben-Menashe says Benjamin Netanyahu is about to release the real Epstein files in an effort to sabotage the peace deal.
He says the material would include never-before-seen material involving a majority of U.S. government officials.
He says Netanyahu will do anything to derail peace.
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🚨🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 BREAKING | If this is confirmed, we can say that the US has lost the war with Iran.
The Iranian news agency Mehr, citing the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, has published all 14 clauses of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed with the US:
1. Permanent and immediate cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon.
2. The US commitment to non-interference in Iran's internal affairs and respect for the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
3. Complete lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days.
4. The US commitment to withdraw its forces from around Iran.
5. Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under Iranian arrangements.
6. Suspension of sanctions on the sale of oil, petrochemical products, and derivatives, and full access of Iran to its financial resources.
7. The necessity for the US and its allies to present reconstruction plans for Iran amounting to at least 300 billion dollars.
8. 60 days of negotiations to reach a final agreement based on nuclear issues and the complete lifting of primary, secondary, US sanctions, and UN Security Council and IAEA Board of Governors resolutions.
9. Reiteration of Iran's commitment under the NPT treaty not to produce nuclear weapons.
10. During the negotiation period, the US has committed not to add forces in the region and not to impose new sanctions.
11. Release of 24 billion dollars of Iran's blocked funds during the 60-day final negotiation period. Half of this amount must be made available to Iran before the start of negotiations.
12. Formation of a supervisory mechanism to implement the agreement.
13. The final agreement will be approved by a UN Security Council resolution.
14. Final negotiations will not begin before the release of half of Iran's blocked funds, suspension of Iran's oil sanctions, and lifting of the naval blockade, and the final agreement will only cover the fate of enriched materials and enrichment, lifting of sanctions, and Iran's economic reconstruction plan. Discussions about Iran's missile program and support for resistance groups are definitively removed from the agenda.
As a reminder, the official signing of the memorandum is scheduled for June 19 in Geneva.
See the latest updates with us: @visionergeo
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We are going to rebuild and modernize Iran’s infrastructure before we ever do the same in our own country. Trump is a terrible president if this is true.
Disclose.tv@disclosetv
JUST IN - Iranian media says the U.S. agreed to present reconstruction plans for Iran amounting to at least 300 billion dollars.
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Quick and painful reminder as Trump seeks to celebrate some sort of victory:
Before we choose to start a war that wasn’t necessary for our national security — and that we could not win — the Strait of Hormuz was open, Iran did not have any of its frozen assets released, all the sanctions were in place, and it was not able to charge a fee for GCC countries’ oil tankers to transit the Gulf.
The 13 Americans who were killed in this war were still alive, the 400 wounded were in full health, and our 20 basis were fully operational. All that is now over, and according to one version of the terms President Trump has signed, we will have to withdraw from most of the region.
Anyway, you want to look at it, this is a profound strategic defeat for America.
Department of State@StateDept
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@JamesHu27192912 I agree. Arguing with someone over 60 is like arguing with your TV set.
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@FischerKing64 1. Open borders were done to replace our people and our culture, not for low wages. That was just a bonus.
2. Blackrock homes will be old and run down in 50 years. Homes need a lot of maintenance. They are not as great of an investment as they may seem.
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I hate to break it to you - but the United States is an absolute, incoherent shitshow.
The idea that we have ‘representative government’ is ridiculous. If that were true we would not have wasted billions killing Iranians for no reason at all. Some people wanted this - but the voters who elected this government did not.
Let’s go further. When Trump goes to China - he brings our ‘great billionaires’ with him. I can’t think of any more obvious symbol that we live in an oligarchy that does everything it can to manipulate outcomes - and that voting is a bit of a joke. It’s like he’s bringing with him ‘the ruling elite.’ Because that is what he did.
We have at least 40 million illegal aliens living here. Our business ‘leaders’ engineered this by bribing politicians to keep the border open - because they wanted to pay low wages and make mucho $$ for themselves. When people objected because their incomes were falling - the business leaders accused them of racism and funded Barack Obama to become POTUS.
The USA is $40 trillion in debt - and no one has a plan to solve that problem. Absolutely no one. This will blow up one day - and it will destroy normal people who save in dollars - because the unspoken plan is to destroy the currency and save the rich and destroy the rest. But people who own our homes - like Blackstone or Blackrock - won’t care because their assets will follow inflation. Everyone else will be reduced to paupers renting from them - their bank accounts gone.
The United States today is hopelessly dysfunctional. It lacks a coherent population that can even agree on anything. It is bankrupt - but the rest of the world is propping it up because they are also scared of what happens when the dollar collapses. It doesn’t have any smart leaders - and we have to watch insiders doing oil trades to make $$ on the Iran war - and the administration itself sells shit coins. Our foreign policy is a total joke - not strategic in any way at all. It is driven by special interests, and then not even followed through. And people are actuality making money on it - pump and dump coming straight from the White House.
This is a hell of a way to celebrate 250 Years! At least we can have a cage match on the White House lawn that degrades our entire history and underscores just how bad and ridiculous things are!
Thank you for your attention to this matter! Enjoy the circus! If you’re lucky you will be dead when the music stops!
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@j_fishback @ByronDonalds More spellchecking and grammer checking please.
People need to be patroled.
Especially high level political figures. Do it right or be called out on it. Either way, own it.
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The predicament Trump is in, and has been since he started the Iran War with Netanyahu, illustrates why it was so stupid and destructive to start this war in the first place. From the start, there were only two real options:
1) Take seriously all the stated war aims and try to fulfill them, which would require a protracted, self-destructive, devastating, years-long war of the kind Trump spent a decade vowing to avoid, or,
2) End the war quickly and prematurely, and then have to scurry around to find some way to claim that the US "won", which would -- at a minimum -- force Trump to credibly claim he got more than Obama's JCPOA gave, thus justifying all the massive bloodshed, instability and cost from the war.
If reports are correct (and it's a big "if"), Trump is choosing option (2). But his case that he actually won anything consequential beyond what the Obama Deal provided is close to laughable, while the losses to the US (and wins for Iran) are self-evident.
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@Rightanglenews Number 10, the sportsball fan who likes to watch his favorite player, is a spectator in life too.
Watching others play makes men weak and ineffective.
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A timeline is forming:
1️⃣Iran signs deal tomorrow
2️⃣Trump hosts UFC fight on the White House lawn, fresh off the announcement of the end of the war
3️⃣Trump leaves directly from UFC fight broadcast to sign final deal at G7
4️⃣Trump signs deal Monday when markets open, stock markets will surge, global energy markets will stabilize, and the price of oil will come down
5️⃣The world will celebrate the beginning of a new era of peace in the Middle East, while the World Cup is going on in the USA
Trump is in position to harness insanely good optics, while essentially the entire world is watching, and he will carry this momentum into the midterms and beyond. You are watching a master strategist at work.
It’s too perfect to be an accident.

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