Jeff Berardelli

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Jeff Berardelli

Jeff Berardelli

@WeatherProf

WFLA-TV (Tampa Bay) Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist. BS Atmospheric Sciences Cornell U. MA Climate Columbia U. Past CBS News NY and Miami, Tampa, WPB

Tampa, FL Beigetreten Kasım 2012
9.4K Folgt58.7K Follower
Jeff Berardelli
Jeff Berardelli@WeatherProf·
It is due directly to jet stream positioning. I said it in my video. With that said, the baseline is at least 2C warmer in Europe and there are lots of papers connecting a increasing split flow jet stream with western European heat waves. So while the dynamical connection is not concrete, it does seem to be a factor.
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ECLOGITE1
ECLOGITE1@ECLOGITE110·
@WeatherProf I get that, but would you admit that this anomaly is due to the jet stream positioning and high pressure and not the temp? Now you can argue that climate change may have disrupted these factors, but that is a much more complicated system to correlate.
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Jeff Berardelli
Jeff Berardelli@WeatherProf·
~1-in-18,000 year event - at least in a historical climate - today in Pissos, France. 🇫🇷 Today heat line this is still rare. Tomorrow it will be common. Welcome to the hottest summer of your life so far, and the coolest of your future! #europe #heatwave
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Jeff Berardelli
Jeff Berardelli@WeatherProf·
The calculation - which perhaps you know - is based on the chance of an event like this in the historical climate baseline of the calculation. So in this case the record is 85 years but I based the calc off the 1990-2020 average. So it answers the question: how often should an event like this happen in a climate like the 1990-2020 climate. If I based it on the 20th century average the return period would be 100K years+ prob
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ECLOGITE1
ECLOGITE1@ECLOGITE110·
@WeatherProf This is a silly calculation and statistic. 18K years ago, Pissos was located along a frozen step with glaciers to the north. Couldn't possibly have been hot. It's like saying that it's the worst customer service you've had at McDonalds drive-thru in the past 3,000 years.
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Jeff Berardelli
Jeff Berardelli@WeatherProf·
Not 2050. Today in France. Peak Temps. Every pink number is 40C+ (104F+) with many stations at 44C+ (111F+). A previously impossible heatwave, soon to be an annual tradition, only hotter.
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Jeff Berardelli
Jeff Berardelli@WeatherProf·
Today’s France peak was 44.6°C/112°F in Bordeaux. At 4.2 sigma - so far on the right tail - the return interval for the region gets wacky. So don’t pay too much attention to the 1-in-87K recurrence interval for the historical climate. Because it’s so far above the station’s all-time and June records, it falls way outside the distribution/ record that the numbers become nonsensical. But suffice to say that this event is virtually impossible without climate change. In today’s hotter climate however, it appears to be “just another Tuesday”. It’s not coincidence, it’s climate change.
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Don Sutherland@DonSuth89069583

It was a surreal day in #France. The air was "a furnace breath." The "heatquake" toppled, shattered, and demolished more than 100 all-time high temperature records.No June has set more all-time records than June 2026. #heatwave #canicule #ClimateChange

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Jeff Berardelli
Jeff Berardelli@WeatherProf·
To be clear, this is specifically for the area immediately surrounding Pissos and only for June (not all year). If I were the include the whole summer I’m guessing the sigma would drop, return interval would be lower, but it would still prob be a 1–in-1000 yr event or greater.
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carl wain
carl wain@WainCarl·
@WeatherProf Ahhhh, ok, saw it on a UK weather enthusiasts feed
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Jeff Berardelli
Jeff Berardelli@WeatherProf·
Europe’s extreme heat is increasing faster than other regions and faster than models predict! So what is causing this heatwave and how do evolving climate patterns like the “Double Jet” and the “Cold Blob” impact the #Europe #heatwave trend? I dig into the latest climate science in this short video.
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Jeff Berardelli
Jeff Berardelli@WeatherProf·
The Marine #Heatwave in the #Mediterranean Sea is neck and neck with 2025 for record hot in June, having been baked by two historic heatwaves so far this season. Water temps up to 7C/ 12.6F above normal and they should continue to heat up into next week.
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Jeff Berardelli
Jeff Berardelli@WeatherProf·
@WainCarl Yes that’s my graph. I made it lol. And actually it’s more like 1-in-26K now
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Jeff Berardelli
Jeff Berardelli@WeatherProf·
@RichieSandys What is the lie here? 123 all time records were broken in France yesterday. More today, tomorrow etc… where is the lie?
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The Sandman
The Sandman@RichieSandys·
@WeatherProf Unbelievable Jeff... But seriously Jeff, your lies are, unbelievable..
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Jeff Berardelli
Jeff Berardelli@WeatherProf·
Europe is melting! The size, intensity, and longevity of this #heatwave is enormous. Peak temperatures will reach 45°C / 100-115°F this week in #France . You are looking at temperature anomalies in the cloud layer over the next 2 weeks, which peak at +20°C. #Europe is Earth’s fastest warming continent, and European heat extremes are increasing faster than models project they should, likely due to changes in steering flow. In a rapid attribution study by Climameter it is estimated that #climatechange has made this June heatwave up to 4°C hotter (7°F) than it would have otherwise been without warming.
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Aigle
Aigle@Aigle_e·
Dans un climat stationnaire, les températures observées hier en France auraient une période de retour moyenne d'une fois tous les 7100 ans. Aussi extrême que possible. Virtuellement impossible sans le changement climatique causé par la combustion de combustibles fossiles.
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Dr. Robert Rohde
Dr. Robert Rohde@RARohde·
@WeatherProf What source are you looking at for the 43.3 ? I was trying to find the time series, but so far the records I've found that has been updated in near real-time has been a bit cooler than that. (But also maybe have incomplete temporal resolution.)
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Jeff Berardelli
Jeff Berardelli@WeatherProf·
Bordeaux’s high Monday of 41.8C (107F) falls on the extreme right tail, 3.6 Sigma with a return interval of 1-in-7000 years for June in a historical climate. But heat like this is much more likely now due to climate change. #heatwave #france
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Jeff Berardelli@WeatherProf

Europe is melting! The size, intensity, and longevity of this #heatwave is enormous. Peak temperatures will reach 45°C / 100-115°F this week in #France . You are looking at temperature anomalies in the cloud layer over the next 2 weeks, which peak at +20°C. #Europe is Earth’s fastest warming continent, and European heat extremes are increasing faster than models project they should, likely due to changes in steering flow. In a rapid attribution study by Climameter it is estimated that #climatechange has made this June heatwave up to 4°C hotter (7°F) than it would have otherwise been without warming.

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Jeff Berardelli
Jeff Berardelli@WeatherProf·
Marine heatwave developing around Florida, with a Coral Bleaching Warning issued for the Florida Keys! If you’ve been to the beach lately you know we are past the refreshing stage, and have moved onto hot tub stage! Water temps in Florida Bay are as high as 97°F in the silty waters, and low 90s for the Keys, SW FL, and Tampa Bay Area. If you remember 2023 was FL’s worst FL marine heatwave on record - also a developing El Niño. If the 88°+ water heat stress lasts in the Keys for long, bleaching will begin. No telling if the ocean heat will repeat 2023, but we are always on guard during El Niño years. #Florida #heatwave #elnino
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Jeff Berardelli
Jeff Berardelli@WeatherProf·
77°F dewpoints cover 2X the area they used to cover in the late 1900s. Simple science: Warmer air = greater moisture capacity. And thus more oppressive humid heat.
World Climate Service@WorldClimateSvc

In light of extreme humidity in Texas last week: AgERA5 indicates that 25°C+ dewpoints cover about twice as much land area now as during late last century. It's only a few decades of data, but the trend seems to have accelerated after 2015-16 (the last super El Niño).

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justbooket
justbooket@justbooket·
@WeatherProf It might be time to accept the possibility that Tampa will potentially experience their driest June on record.
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Jeff Berardelli
Jeff Berardelli@WeatherProf·
#Florida rainfall over the past week. A case of the the haves and the have nots. On the West Coast, we have NOT :(
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